Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

[Neiller22]

And the wait goes while USA goes into the freezer which is never good for UK/Ireland cold. Jet will fire up and atlantic will awaken which i fear will reduce our chances of cold weather dramatically though hope im wrong here, 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Neiller22

[Rocheydub]

ECM is really good this morning. REALLY GOOD!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Well they certainly seem happy in the MT, what this means for us I do not know as the SE bias tends to creep in.... Although I did see mention of snow for January Snowstorm who is in South West  Cork so maybe we are going to see something interesting?

[Neiller22]

When they are happy it must mean an easterly is about. 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

And the wait goes while USA goes into the freezer which is never good for UK/Ireland cold. 

That is just not true. 

Anyway,  great model runs overnight and first snow symbols have appeared on automated met forecasts. 

Now that the arrival of the cold air from Wednesday is guaranteed we should continue to see upgrades on the output .

[Neiller22]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That is just not true. 

Anyway,  great model runs overnight and first snow symbols have appeared on automated met forecasts. 

Now that the arrival of the cold air from Wednesday is guaranteed we should continue to see upgrades on the output .

Hope ur right. 

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Well they certainly seem happy in the MT, what this means for us I do not know as the SE bias tends to creep in.... Although I did see mention of snow for January Snowstorm who is in South West  Cork so maybe we are going to see something interesting?

First slider is early hours Early hours Sunday.

[Sperrin]

We're in a delicate place imo. We're not as cold as Britain but we're much more likely to get moisture off the Atlantic, hence greater snow risk. If the colder air can move slightly further west we could be in Jackpot land. 

All will be revealed as the week progresses. At least we're in the game!!

Neiller, you remind me of this character from Fr Ted. Always looking for the pessimistic angle. Think positive and positive things will happen

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by Sperrin

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Tell you what though, it's a bit blowy out there today!

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

We're in a delicate place imo. We're not as cold as Britain but we're much more likely to get moisture off the Atlantic, hence greater snow risk. If the colder air can move slightly further west we could be in Jackpot land. 

 

Exactly what I was thinking. If the sliders come in on a slightly more favourable angle then we draw in the colder continental surface air ahead of the precipitation. 

As ever, the further North and East you are with altitude will help.

[Rocheydub]

Gfs 06z is also good this morning too. Looking promising. Isn’t it about this time that the12z’s usually do a U turn?!?  I’ve the bruises to prove it from previous years!!!

[Bottled Snow]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Exactly what I was thinking. If the sliders come in on a slightly more favourable angle then we draw in the colder continental surface air ahead of the precipitation. 

As ever, the further North and East you are with altitude will help.

Yes Dec 2017 brought good snowfall here in southeast from a slider..turned milder a few days later but this looks like a prolonged set up so should be plenty of opportunities over next few weeks 

[Bottled Snow]

2 hours ago, Bottled Snow said:

Yes Dec 2017 brought good snowfall here in southeast from a slider..turned milder a few days later but this looks like a prolonged set up so should be plenty of opportunities over next few weeks 

Met Eireann in week ahead forecast at lunch time predicting rain with hill sleet for Friday and Saturday.......hopefully we can get colder uppers in place to support snowfall as we go through the weekend and in to following week

[Eastantrim4]

Been following along with great interest...

Love a good snow day and last year had 2. Be nice if that could be upped to 3 this year!

[Neiller22]

4 hours ago, Sperrin said:

We're in a delicate place imo. We're not as cold as Britain but we're much more likely to get moisture off the Atlantic, hence greater snow risk. If the colder air can move slightly further west we could be in Jackpot land. 

All will be revealed as the week progresses. At least we're in the game!!

Neiller, you remind me of this character from Fr Ted. Always looking for the pessimistic angle. Think positive and positive things will happen

 

. I’m just not blown away by snow chances. Too marginal in my eyes but yes of course it could change this week as we get nearer the time and I hope it does 

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, Bottled Snow said:

Met Eireann in week ahead forecast at lunch time predicting rain with hill sleet for Friday and Saturday.......hopefully we can get colder uppers in place to support snowfall as we go through the weekend and in to following week

They will only mention the "S" word if it gets within 3 or 4 days normally, even when it's nailed on!

[parrotingfantasist]

Clear as mud for me with what the models are showing for us in the next week.

 

So I'll be probably sticking to the MetOffice forecast for now until the model thread turns a little less vague...

[Rocheydub]

Icon 18z looks superb for us and only 4/5 days away. Plenty of snow in that.

It is knife-edge stuff though.

[mountain shadow]

10 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Icon 18z looks superb for us and only 4/5 days away. Plenty of snow in that.

It is knife-edge stuff though.

Not knife edge any more,  all rain now.

Turning colder for sure from mid week but any proper cold and snow remains ten plus days away.

The manyana Winter goes on.

Edited January 14, 2019 by mountain shadow

[parrotingfantasist]

On the plus side it'll get more seasonal and chilly after Wednesday. Coincidentally, after the Brexy vote...

[Neiller22]

This is why I havnt bought into all this hype. Never once hardly has the indication of proper cold really got into the reliable timeframe and any snow was knife edge. I will be astounded if the met long range for last week off January is right. The borefest and freakish mild continues. Utterly shocking winter.  Everybody is stating the GFS is a very poor model but it has never really modelled this cold weather yet. Certainly not in the reliable 5-6 day range. Other models have but it hasn’t happened or is constantly watered down nearer the time. Maybe gfs is better than  people are giving it credit at mo. Look I hope I’m wrong and the signs constantly look good for last 3rd of January but the models seriously need to start showing it constantly and soon as the weeks do go by quickly. Here’s hoping for better runs in the reliable shortly. 

Edited January 14, 2019 by Neiller22

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

This is why I havnt bought into all this hype. Never once hardly has the indication of proper cold really got into the reliable timeframe and any snow was knife edge. I will be astounded if the met long range for last week off January is right. The borefest and freakish mild continues. Utterly shocking winter.  Everybody is stating the GFS is a very poor model but it has never really modelled this cold weather yet. Certainly not in the reliable 5-6 day range. Other models have but it hasn’t happened or is constantly watered down nearer the time. Maybe gfs is better than  people are giving it credit at mo. Look I hope I’m wrong and the signs constantly look good for last 3rd of January but the models seriously need to start showing it constantly and soon as the weeks do go by quickly. Here’s hoping for better runs in the reliable shortly. 

The GFS is a very poor model compared to ECM and UKMET models, that is statistical fact, 

The models are hinting at a polar North Westerly in the 9 to 12 days timeframe and I guess that's where our next interest lies.

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Not knife edge any more,  all rain now.

Turning colder for sure from mid week but any proper cold and snow remains ten plus days away.

The manyana Winter goes on.

Indeed, although the 06 icon reverts somewhat. It’s bloody fascinating model viewing though, the SSW really messes up the NWP’s outputs after 72 or so!

[mountain shadow]

26 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Indeed, although the 06 icon reverts somewhat. It’s bloody fascinating model viewing though, the SSW really messes up the NWP’s outputs after 72 or so!

SSW or no SSW the snowy cold still remains out of reach.

 

[jules216]

Looking at NWP it looks like another let down re. northern blocking that needs to happen for you guys to see snow. Possibly north westerly can give some of you guys transient snow cower. So reminds me of winters from last few years now. After mid January NW cold shots with temporary snow cower, apart from last March and perhaps 2013 for NI. 

Back here in Slovakia we have another NW cold shot with some villages getting buried again. Unfortunately my town is behind huge mountain range that prevents any north westerly from giving us more snowfall. We remain between 5-10cm from over a month now. Will not complain. I only have to go about 30 minutes to this landscape.