Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

[Rocheydub]

38 minutes ago, ronan said:

It's certainly does MS. Boring weather and the models just seem to be stuck at the minute. Nothing remotely interesting in the output!!

It absolutely does. I just get the feeling that the big change will show it's face in the next day or so.

[ronan]

Something needs to give. I hope it's sooner rather than later. 

[booferking]

This sure has been a tough winter not even a Northerly toppler diddly squat.

[booferking]

Quick look at the charts this morning my word shocking lets see what Feb can bring

[booferking]

Chasing another easterly again why is it so hard to get height rises towards greenland and a bloody northerly for once get yourselves ready for another easterly fail for the isle of Ireland.

[parrotingfantasist]

I can't wait a moment more ...

Tell me quando, quando quando...

 

[mountain shadow]

The SSW has begun yet the models get worse. 

[ronan]

I just think the models are finding it hard to get to grips with things. I expect major changes over the next 4-7 days. Have to admit there is some weird output at the minute and that Hunt For Cold Thread is just really stressful at times. Lol

[parrotingfantasist]

Midges having a field day in this weather.

[mountain shadow]

Saving a fortune in heating though.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

True Mountain, have to say it's very spring like weather atm

[Neiller22]

Can not remember a worse winter for snow ever. Its also so boring and mild. Cant see it changing anytime soon. The one positive is that if nothing comes from this wonderous SSW then in future we can all forget about these background signals as they very rarely benefit our weather by all accounts 

[parrotingfantasist]

Winter isn't over yet Neiller, but with how boring, dull and mild its been weather wise we are due a great surprise in January and February me thinks.

[booferking]

Happy New Year Folks.

[parrotingfantasist]

Could hear a pin drop in here  

 

 

Happy new year everyone and thank God 2019 has started off a bit more seasonal..

Edited January 1, 2019 by parrotingfantasist
Back to Primary school for me

[mountain shadow]

This is the Winter of manyana, manyana, where the good stuff is always two weeks away and never gets any closer. 

I was increasingly confident that the SSW was going to deliver and then read this by Chionomanic in the Start thread this morning, and now I'm not even sure the SSW will deliver.

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"I wonder am I the only one who isn't overly excited that the dynamics and downwelling of the SSW and subsequent split are not looking favourable for the UK? The split at 10hPA keeps the residual vortices over the Atlantic and Eurasian sector before rejoining and even with the strongest tilting that I can imagine, there is a strong possibility of some kind of westerly flow over our sector unless these daughters can 'do one' and bugger off elsewhere!"

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The snow was due in December, then early January and now mid January and there is talk of late January/early February now.

 

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Snowdrops out, gorse bushes in flower and Daffodils well up in places, it's kinda the winter that isn't. Ah well tis only weather....

[Rocheydub]

Awfully pessimistic in here! Cheer up!!!

 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Awfully pessimistic in here! Cheer up!!!

 

Once we get a decent chart inside T+8 days I will be.

This day after day after day of the same weather type is incredibly boring.

[parrotingfantasist]

Not a flake of snow or a decent frost this whole Winter. Mild, mild and mild. I'm of the mindset that we'll be rewarded for our hardship this month (or next) but if things keep going as they are we'll be seeing snow as the cherry trees blossom.

[mountain shadow]

Massive downgrade on the Met Office 31 dayer. This is why I've been so negative. SSW, my a r s e.

[Sperrin]

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

@mountain shadow is it really a massive downgrade? Seems to me like they're just adjusting to a later propagation date for the effects of the SSW.

[mountain shadow]

45 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2019 to Thursday 31 Jan 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, the weather is likely to be on the mild side. Towards the end of January, however, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

@mountain shadow is it really a massive downgrade? Seems to me like they're just adjusting to a later propagation date for the effects of the SSW.

It keeps pushing the cold back.

The SSW/reversal has been ongoing a couple of days now and I had hoped that the mid range models would have firmed up on the cold arriving mid month, now we're talking late month.

Edited January 2, 2019 by mountain shadow

[Sperrin]

@mountain shadow it has been a frustratingly slow process but I still think we'll hit the jackpot sometime soon. You'll be needing aircraft to drop emergency food supplies into Carryduff by the end of Jan following a brutal beasterly while we twiddle our thumbs out West!

This time last year we'd already seen a load of snow in the NW, I've missed the PM flows this winter!!

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

 

This time last year we'd already seen a load of snow in the NW, I've missed the PM flows this winter!!

It has been dire!

If the snow does come, I'm hopeful it will come from the North first, before switching to the East.