Ireland Regional Weather Discussion 13/12/2018 Onwards

[Neiller22]

Just bear in mind the models may drop the idea again and reintroduce during next week. It’s never plain sailing. 

[sundog]

It is surely just a matter of time before we get some proper winter weather. Everything seems to be pointing to it.

[Neiller22]

15 hours ago, Neiller22 said:

Just bear in mind the models may drop the idea again and reintroduce during next week. It’s never plain sailing. 

There goes the models dropping the idea of a white xmas as i thought would happen. Oooooo GFS you are so predictable.  Next phase will be for it be re-introduced in a few days time  

[mountain shadow]

I think I'll give it one more set of 12z before chucking the towel in on a white Christmas. 

Still the small chance of a toppler. 

Edited December 15, 2018 by mountain shadow

[Mixer 85]

Jeez what a day!!

 Totally agree with Neiller22 with regard to dropping of the cold signal for Christmas only to gather pace again in the coming days. It’s always unfolds this way as the models struggle to make sense of the volatility. I just wish that people in the MAD thread would realise this and acquire the ability to look beyond current output. It’s tiresome wading through the doom and gloom “it’s not gonna snow until March “ rubbish!

I’m by no means convinced that it’s going to happen but I’m certainly aware of the potential and with that comes great enthusiasm and excitement. For many years I’ve stared at flat zonal charts with E Canada farting low after low at us. Well this year appears to be different thankfully and I expect lots to look forward to. So much so that I left two spare wheels with the local garage man, with instructions to have snow tyres on em before Christmas Worst case scenario they’ll gather dust in the shed but hopefully over the coming weeks I’ll be out in the snow with my fingers falling off as I grip the wheel brace

Anyway nice to come in here and see a lot of positive realism. Keep the faith folks. It’s that glimmer of hope that has us here after all.

Micheal

[Weegaz]

What a day, imagine all the rain was snow 

Looks like i’m going to be in the digger tomorrow, couple of sheugh’s need cleared, water built up big time, fields are flooded

Not many comments in the MOD thread today, hopefully come to life again middle of the week when good charts showing again 

Edited December 15, 2018 by Weegaz

[mountain shadow]

The bad news is Christmas will be green, the good news is Neiller won't have to worry about working it now!

No sign at all now of the strat warming getting any cold into us soon.

Might be the end of January.

[Neiller22]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The bad news is Christmas will be green, the good news is Neiller won't have to worry about working it now!

No sign at all now of the strat warming getting any cold into us soon.

Might be the end of January.

ha ha. Looking that way MS so beer and turkey for me now xmas day. Unless things change rapidly i think the Met office long range will start to move away now from the cold they were expecting.  Def things looking awful last two days. 

[ronan]

Can't just say that nothing is going to happen around the Xmas period when even the models don't have a clue. Still plenty time for change. 

[Neiller22]

43 minutes ago, ronan said:

Can't just say that nothing is going to happen around the Xmas period when even the models don't have a clue. Still plenty time for change. 

Exactly Ronnan, As awful as i think the charts are at the moment and xmas looks mild I still think there is a high chance the models will flip right back to cold around Xmas . I expected them to flip from cold then to crap before flipping back to cold, Interesting times ahead i think. If nothing else its all good craic!

[ronan]

100% Neiller. Just a waiting game. I am off to Iceland for a week from the 7th of January and there is no snow there at the minute!! Fingers crossed it changes very soon!!

[Rocheydub]

13 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The bad news is Christmas will be green, the good news is Neiller won't have to worry about working it now!

No sign at all now of the strat warming getting any cold into us soon.

Might be the end of January.

Hmmm, not the charts I just looked at. Looks likely between Dec 25th and jan 1st.

[Mixer 85]

22 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Hmmm, not the charts I just looked at. Looks likely between Dec 25th and jan 1st.

Quite right Rochey. Everything seems to be shaping up nicely. Also worth noting @mountain shadow SSW was never progged to have an effect over the Christmas period. The delayed strat/trop response due to downwelling means that if we’re on the lucky side we likely won’t see any effect until early Jan at best. The potential  cold over Christmas is to be driven by other teleconnective forcings (far beyond my ken) which the models will likely struggle with so expect plenty of flip flopping in the coming days. 

[mountain shadow]

9 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Hmmm, not the charts I just looked at. Looks likely between Dec 25th and jan 1st.

And today?

I see nothing in the models indicating anything wintry in the next couple of weeks.

 

[Neiller22]

Another warning for wind and rain. ! If only they were all for snow lately we would be digging ourselves out at the min. Anyway good things come to those who wait. 

[Neiller22]

Don’t venture in mod thread. It’s all going the way of Pete tong! Meltdown has taken over. Toys out of Pram etc etc etc 

Edited December 17, 2018 by Neiller22

[Rocheydub]

Don’t understand it really. The SSW is not due until months end, it can take 2 weeks for it to transfer down to tropspheric meaning for us... 

[mountain shadow]

The Met Office seem bullish from the start of January, so fingers crossed.

[Neiller22]

25 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Met Office seem bullish from the start of January, so fingers crossed.

They do indeed but more of an easterly now. Good for east coast of Ireland as a whole but cold and dry elsewhere going by that update. To me it’s a slight reduction in severity reading that. But def still going for cold mayb a smigin less bullish. All to play for though. 

[booferking]

Signs maybe that ssw won't be as strong as previously forecasted displaced event instead of a split id say we will have a better understanding come Friday fingers crossed it favours us coldies..

[mountain shadow]

44 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

They do indeed but more of an easterly now. Good for east coast of Ireland as a whole but cold and dry elsewhere going by that update. To me it’s a slight reduction in severity reading that. But def still going for cold mayb a smigin less bullish. All to play for though. 

They do mention fronts moving in from the Atlantic and we do very well out of those as the winds would turn South Easterly. Anyhow, shows how bad things are when we're talking about events three weeks away that may or may not occur.

[Neiller22]

27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

They do mention fronts moving in from the Atlantic and we do very well out of those as the winds would turn South Easterly. Anyhow, shows how bad things are when we're talking about events three weeks away that may or may not occur.

Yep. And things 3 weeks don’t happen very often. All we can do is hope but for the first time I’m starting to doubt cold in jan. 

[StormyWeather28]

From an IMBY perspective I don't want an Easterly. It never delivers anything for my location. Ever. In saying that, the Met office outlook has pretty much changed everyday this past month so I wouldn't give it much credence. 

[Neiller22]

bbc newsline giving temps of 11 degrees on xmas eve!! think i can now kiss goodbye to any chance of seasonal weather. Honestly how many mild xmas's do we  have to endure

i starting to fear the met office long range will start to delay the onset of any cold weather from now on with each update moving away from cold weather and snow in Jan

Edited December 17, 2018 by Neiller22

[mountain shadow]

Worst model output of the Winter today. Complete collapse of anything wintry out to month end.