MILD/VERY MILD DECEMBERS

[Tom Quintavalle]

Having read an exchange of posts between Crewe Cold and Weather History, regarding very mild Decembers and their relationship with the following January and February's, I thought I would take a closer look at any possible bearing, on the rest of Winter. 

Crewe Cold was espousing the theory that a very mild December does not bode well, if you're hoping to experience some decent, wintry weather, in January and February. Weather History suggested that a very mild December doesn't necessarily preclude cold and wintry weather during the rest of Winter. I must admit to siding with C.C, and not being a fan of very mild December's being a good omen for  cold, wintry weather, in the final two months of Winter.

I had a telephone conversation with local Weatherman Ian Currie yesterday and he seemed to be firmly in the Weather History camp. Amongst other years, he quoted Dec.1954, C.E.T 6.8C with Jan. and Feb.1955 coming in at 2.6C and 1.2c, respectively and also Dec.1985, C.E.T 6.3C. The following Jan and Feb(1986), recorded C.E.T's of 3.5C and a bitterly cold -1.1C, respectively.

So, I thought I'd go and do a bit of research, myself. I'll report back with my findings, later.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

[law of averages]

In our area of this great island... the 80s, 90s and up to 2007 brought to many green winter's!! Never mind MILD/VERY MILD December's... since 2007 more winter's have brought the winter's/December's... I and many crave, DECEMBER 2010 being the most notable for MANY, MANY YEAR'S... let's hope winter 18/19 can deliver!!

Ps there are many people on this site/forum who are very informative and a joy to read, whether right or sometimes wrong... too many to mention but keep writing, I'll keep reading lol...Ged

[Tom Quintavalle]

I looked at the Decembers since 1946 with a C.E.T of 6.0c or more (at least around 1.0c, above the mean). There were 14 Decembers out of, an admittedly small sample of 71 years. Below, are the results:

MILD /VERY MILD DECECEMBERS(SINCE 1946)

        YEAR                DEC (C.E.T.)       JAN (C.E.T.)     FEB (C.E.T.)

      1953                    6.9                   2.9                 2.6      

      1954                    6.8                   2.6                 1.2      

      1959                    6.0                   3.8                 4.1      

      1971                    6.6                   3.9                 4.3      

      1974                    8.1                   6.8                 4.4      

      1977                    6.1                   3.4                 2.8      

      1985                    6.3                   3.5              (-1.1)

      1986                    6.2                   0.8                 3.6  

      1988                    7.5                   6.1                 5.9      

      1994                    6.4                   4.8                 6.5      

      2006                    6.5                   7.0                 5.8      

      2011                    6.0                   5.4                 3.8      

      2013                    6.3                   5.7                 6.2      

      2015                    9.7                   5.4                 4.9

      2016                    6.0                   4.0                 6.1  

                    WHITE (NEUTRAL),MILDER THAN AVERAGE,

                                         MUCH MILDER THAN AVERAGE

                                         COLDER THAN AVERAGE,

                                         MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE.

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited December 8, 2018 by TomSE12

[Weather-history]

12 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

I looked at the Decembers since 1946 with a C.E.T of 6.0c or more (at least around 1.0c, above the mean). There were 14 Decembers out of, an admittedly small sample of 71 years. Below, are the results:

MILD /VERY MILD DECECEMBERS(SINCE 1946)

        YEAR                DEC (C.E.T.)       JAN (C.E.T.)     FEB (C.E.T.)

      1953                    6.9                   2.9                 2.6      

      1954                    6.8                   2.6                 1.2      

      1959                    6.0                   3.8                 4.1      

      1971                    6.6                   3.9                 4.3      

      1974                    8.1                   6.8                 4.4      

      1977                    6.1                   3.4                 2.8      

      1985                    6.3                   3.5              (-1.1)     

      1986                    6.2                   0.8                 3.6      

      1988                    7.5                   6.1                 5.9      

      1994                    6.4                   4.8                 6.5      

      2006                    6.5                   7.0                 5.8      

      2011                    6.0                   5.4                 3.8      

      2013                    6.3                   5.7                 6.2      

      2016                    6.0                   4.0                 6.1  

                    WHITE (NEUTRAL),MILDER THAN AVERAGE,

                                         MUCH MILDER THAN AVERAGE

                                         COLDER THAN AVERAGE,

                                         MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE.

Regards,

Tom. 

Interesting although you missed out on the grandaddy of them all, December 2015 with a whopping 9.7.

As I mentioned in my post, Ian Brown, restricted the very mild December doesn't bode well for the rest of winter from 1987, which the data above seems to fit in with. My issue with that is that cold months in this period have been very restricted anyway. There have been far many above average months, so how do you separate the theory from the background noise since 1987?

 

[Froze were the Days]

That confirms what I thought without looking at my records Tom which I've been keeping since 1983 - over the last few decades there is certainly some truth behind this!...and going by the 1st week of this month which looks like it will be close to (at best) but probably above but by how much? doesn't bode that well but in general many mild winter months since the late 90's.

Would be interesting also to see how many winter months have gone from mild or mildish followd by a cold month? (not just December mild) ...by the way have you got Feb 85 and 86 swapped? 86 was the sub month.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[Tom Quintavalle]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That confirms what I thought without looking at my records Tom which I've been keeping since 1983 - over the last few decades there is certainly some truth behind this!...and going by the 1st week of this month which looks like it will be close to (at best) but probably above but by how much?

Would be interesting also to see how many winter months have gone from mild or mildish followd by a cold of month? (not just December mild) ...by the way have you got Feb 85 and 86 swapped? 86 was the sub month.

 

29 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That confirms what I thought without looking at my records Tom which I've been keeping since 1983 - over the last few decades there is certainly some truth behind this!...and going by the 1st week of this month which looks like it will be close to (at best) but probably above but by how much?

Would be interesting also to see how many winter months have gone from mild or mildish followd by a cold of month? (not just December mild) ...by the way have you got Feb 85 and 86 swapped? 86 was the sub month.

Hopefully that's the chart, corrected. Thanks to FwtD and Kevin(W.H) above, my stroke damaged eyes, playing tricks on me!!

Regards,

Tom. 

[cheeky_monkey]

Trying to correlate a series of monthly UK CET and the following months is impossible..the weather is a global system and there could be an infinite myriad of background signals that will produce similar Monthly temps in a tiny island in the north west of Europe..at a minimum when looking at charts i always look at the NH as whole.