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BornFromTheVoid

2019 Arctic Sea Ice Maximum Poll

Arctic Sea Ice Maximum Extent Poll 2019  

21 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. What will the maximum sea ice extent be in 2019, in millions of km2, according to the ADS values?

    • 12.5 to 12.75
      1
    • 12.75 to 13.0
      0
    • 13.0 to 13.25
      0
    • 13.25 to 13.5
      1
    • 13.5 to 13.75
      3
    • 13.75 to 14
      7
    • 14.0 to 14.25
      5
    • 14.25 to 14.5
      3
    • 14.5 to 14.75
      0
    • 14.75 to 15.0
      1
    • 15.0 to 15.25
      0
    • 15.25 to 15.5
      0
    • 15.75 to 16
      0


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It's been a while since I set up one of these, so how about a new one as we look towards 2019?

Below are the maximum values since 2010 (in millions km2), while current extent is about 3rd lowest on record. The data is from the ADS website

80s:   15.6
90s:   15.07
00s:   14.67
2010: 14.69
2011: 14.13
2012: 14.71
2013: 14.52
2014: 14.45
2015: 13.94
2016: 13.96
2017: 13.88
2018: 13.89

The last 4 years have been the 4 lowest on record. Will we follow course or buck the trend next year?

The poll will remain open until the end of the month. 

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Little over a week remaining to get your votes in. ADS extent currently sits at 4th lowest
Will the SSW slow the regrowth, or send the cold into the peripheral regions and increase sea ice cover there? Interesting few months ahead whatever the case

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is that 13.89 figure what it was 'now' when you wrote the post, or the maximum earlier this year?

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34 minutes ago, Devonian said:

is that 13.89 figure what it was 'now' when you wrote the post, or the maximum earlier this year?

It was the maximum for this year, back in March. 

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1 hour ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

I voted the lowest ,maximum  extent on record.  12.5km2

If you're sad about your vote, then vote for something else.... It won't make any difference to the outcome haha 🙂

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I think gains are going to be harder to come by now. Hudson, Chukchi and Baffin are iced over and SSTs in Barents are still well above average. Hard to believe the ice has barely touched the northern coast of Svalbard and we're almost into January.

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I feel that sea ice max will be very similar to the last few years.

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Posted (edited)

I have been looking at past archived Gif's looking for Sea Ice for Asia and Europe and it shows that the Sea Ice increase for 2018 is ahead of 2016 but slightly behind 2015. I look at the gif's for December 31st 2016 and December 31st 2015. I got the information from the NOAA website.

Edited by Katrine Basso
Add more information
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Extent has boomed in recent days, from 2nd lowest to 7th lowest for the date. With that, it has now entered the first bracket in our options, at 12.52 million km2.

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7 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Extent has boomed in recent days, from 2nd lowest to 7th lowest for the date. With that, it has now entered the first bracket in our options, at 12.52 million km2.

Good to hear! Pleased that words like "freefall" were a massive over reaction (for now at least) 

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21 hours ago, Rambo said:

Good to hear! Pleased that words like "freefall" were a massive over reaction (for now at least) 

I don't think anybody used the word free fall when describing Arctic ice extent in December....

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3 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:

I don't think anybody used the word free fall when describing Arctic ice extent in December....

Oops my bad, you're absolutely right, it was the Antarctic thread. There's so many ice threads I got the wrong one, as I didnt read this properly when rushing on my phone!

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Into the 3rd bracket now, 13.1 million km2, hovering around 6th or 7th lowest for the date.

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Extent now into the 4th lowest bracket, having crept up to 13.257 million km2 yesterday

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3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

up to 14.2 million Km2 today

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

This poll is based on the ADS extent values here: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
A little lower currently, 13.45 million km2

1 hour ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Is there any way to see what you voted? I forgot. 🙂

Unfortunately, I set the votes to private. When I've had open voting in the past, some people complained. Though that's going years back so maybe things have changed!?
Next poll I'll leave open so we can see what everyone voted for.

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Extent now a little over the 13.5 million km2 mark, and 3rd lowest for now, with just 2017 and 2018 with less ice coverage for the date

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Sea ice growth booming in recent days once again, and now up to 13.954 million km2, and above the maxima of 2015, 2017 and 2018.

No new records this time!

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4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Sea ice growth booming in recent days once again, and now up to 13.954 million km2, and above the maxima of 2015, 2017 and 2018.

No new records this time!

BFTV...….

Suddenly looking positive again..

It has moved up to 9th lowest now (for the date) and is above the 2010's average and is approaching the average for the 2000's being also above those of 2005, 2011 and 2006, and also closing in on 2007 and 2010..

 

 

 Arc3.thumb.png.c660a5ae4598ab4a665f1e7230d02946.pngArc4.thumb.png.ea31c208653f39f9d21940dbe11ad432.png

Thanks to the ASIF for the above charts.

 

Also of note is the sudden reversal in the ENSO SST data in the week following the NASAA(NCDC) announcement that the  El Nino is now official up to the 7th of February.

nino12.thumb.png.1ca117facfc94269b2dd78e13019068d.png       nino34.thumb.png.c4e1c0ab5bafb84d4b85b92f6cdd4d6b.png

Think they can show us a thing or two in Just in Time analysis!

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Sea ice growth booming in recent days once again, and now up to 13.954 million km2, and above the maxima of 2015, 2017 and 2018.

No new records this time!

I wouldn't object if my vote went public....

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5 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I wouldn't object if my vote went public....

Me neither. 👍

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