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Mapantz

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The way I look at is, all of the models have some kind of variation on where wintry precip might be, which is a good thing, as it means anywhere is in with a shout of seeing a flake or two. If they all agreed on nothing for any of us in the region, it would be less fun. 🙂

Nice avatar! 

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1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Are we right off any snow for tomorrow night South of Birmingham & West of Swindon?

Kold posted about the 06z ecm (he has a subscription to access it) in the mod thread and it's an upgrade for snow further south west for Thursday due to the low pressure being more elongated than round shape but I think its safe to say the details for Thursday are nowhere near mailed on yet, heck even tomorrow isn't exactly mailed down yet lol

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5 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Kold posted about the 06z ecm (he has a subscription to access it) in the mod thread and it's an upgrade for snow further south west for Thursday due to the low pressure being more elongated than round shape but I think its safe to say the details for Thursday are nowhere near mailed on yet, heck even tomorrow isn't exactly mailed down yet lol

Tomorrow’s low keeps trending south all the time so would be very unlucky if Thursdays low doesn’t track further south.

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9 minutes ago, TomW said:

Tomorrow’s low keeps trending south all the time so would be very unlucky if Thursdays low doesn’t track further south.

Very true & that chart posted by mapantz shows lots of heavy snow showers packing in on Wednesday too so all in all this week is looking good for most of us to at least see snow falling, settling not so sure but to be honest I'd be happy to see some snow flakes mixed in with the rain if that's all we did end up getting here at sea level, mind you it's only a 20 minute drive or so from here to the mendips so I'll pop up there if it is rain/sleet here. 

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There's also that wrap around feature on Friday night which would bring most of the region into play if it materialises. Obviously that's a long way off but rare to have so many chances of seeing snow. 

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That is 100% better for all of are region on latest ICON!

Better angle just need it a tad further south! 

Edited by TomW

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well the gritters are out nice and early, up the A36 towards Beckington, 3 times round the roundabout and back towards bath with the grit still flowing!

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Snow line about 5-10 miles further south for Thursday!

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1 minute ago, TomW said:

Snow line about 5-10 miles further south for Thursday!

Where is it now? Are Bristol and Bath in the snow? I'm still looking forward tomorrow in case of a surprise but I'm starting to look towards Thursday for a big snow event that could be in the south...

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3 minutes ago, TomW said:

Snow line about 5-10 miles further south for Thursday!

How far south mate? Below Bristol or are we talking birmingham.?

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I’m going with the idea to expect nothing and anything that happens is a bonus

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6 minutes ago, TomW said:

Snow line about 5-10 miles further south for Thursday!

Think most of the region would bank the ARPEGE 12z. 

Edited by MidnightSnow

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Just now, khodds said:

I’m going with the idea to expect nothing and anything that happens is a bonus

Me too. Certainly won't be getting excited over it.

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Got up to 6.9°C with blue skies this morning and some variable sunny spells this afternoon. Not too bad, currently 5°C

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If my interpretation of models and Met Office are correct, then tomorrow looks like a damp squib, PPN arriving earlier than originally forecast and consequently mostly rain/sleet. Should be interesting even at this late stage to see whether there is any further movement of timings or type of PPN. 

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19 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

How far south mate? Below Bristol or are we talking birmingham.?

Bristol northwards but it’s the trends that keep pulling it south of it continues the snow line should drop further south by the time we reach Thursday hopefully!

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13 minutes ago, TomW said:

Bristol northwards but it’s the trends that keep pulling it south of it continues the snow line should drop further south by the time we reach Thursday hopefully!

That's amazing so long as it keeps going southwards...

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Thursday/Friday looks like a better hope for us, just as long as it keeps trending south..

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12 minutes ago, noonoo418 said:

If my interpretation of models and Met Office are correct, then tomorrow looks like a damp squib, PPN arriving earlier than originally forecast and consequently mostly rain/sleet. Should be interesting even at this late stage to see whether there is any further movement of timings or type of PPN. 

Yeah I've kinda written off tomorrow in my head.... and that's coming from a serial ramper. Best case scenario looks like 1-2cm of slush, no thanks. Going by the chart Mapantz posted, some lucky spots will probably do better from the showers that come after in the early hours of Wednesday.

My interest is firmly on Thursday/Friday and so far it's looking hopeful.

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1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

Yeah I've kinda written off tomorrow in my head.... and that's coming from a serial ramper. Best case scenario looks like 1-2cm of slush, no thanks. Going by the chart Mapantz posted, some lucky spots will probably do better from the showers that come after in the early hours of Wednesday.

My interest is firmly on Thursday/Friday and so far it's looking hopeful.

I still want snow tomorrow, I just hope we get some surprises instead of some sleet, ugh. Most looking forward to Thrusday now, there should be southwards corrections as this did happen to tomorrows low.

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image.thumb.png.6d03161385f9da1bf0cc254d708d49d2.pngSome wintry ppn around in the south west Wednesday morning

image.thumb.png.0666e7b5c7b061604eb4df1ba1925057.pngimage.thumb.png.9f420f7d19ee34f26bb42ba4e3c6f6a4.png Thursday.. perhaps we want that coming in a little later if we want to see anything settling easier? But tomorrow isn't even set in stone so we'll see how that evolves.

Edited by CheesepuffScott

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i just got a laugh, on Met Office site, look up Princetown - Thursday 9pm - thunder shower with temp at 0c

we got Thunder Snow boyz - it'll change again later

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I think we need to move on from tomorrow now, re snowfall.  It's just looking like a damp affair rather than a white one for our region.  Saying that, we aren't missing out on much, it's not going to be a memorable event wherever you are in the country, just a wet, sleety, wintry mess really.

I am ever more interested in Thursday afternoon now.  A day or 2 ago, this looked like a northern UK affair comfortably, however, as others have said, the snow line keeps moving south with each model suite now.  We now have it down towards the M4 corridor by many models, with another couple of days to play with yet for more southern members.

I will await all 12z data before I do a preliminary round up of what we are potentially looking at.

But, to show the increasing potential, check out the Weds - Fri forecast for the SW region by the Met Office.  Gone as the word rain, replaced by the word snow........

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Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Wintry showers will continue on Wednesday in Devon and Cornwall. Thursday will start dry and bright but with a snow risk later. Heavy thundery showers are possible on Friday.

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