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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

    Another good run from the models this afternoon, even the UKMO on board now.

    And it’s all moving into the reliable. Looks like it’s game on.

    F4A1040B-FB7B-4F97-A081-875561F4C431.gif

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    Nice little walk with the hound.

    Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

    Guys good luck today -As they say one mans loss is another mans gain - well for once in the UK the south & SW are going to gobble up the Norths snow ? Someone in North Devon / Somerset / Wilt

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Just reviewed the current dewpoints for the UK -

    Central southern England could be more favourable this eve than initially forecast

    6FA65133-6D05-4695-BB34-54562DDCF3F1.thumb.png.6c0d4dabfa0c74a8b7168fc2aea3e19e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Just reviewed the current dewpoints for the UK -

    Central southern England could be more favourable this eve than initially forecast

    6FA65133-6D05-4695-BB34-54562DDCF3F1.thumb.png.6c0d4dabfa0c74a8b7168fc2aea3e19e.png

    just looked at my dew point and its dropped below 0c to -0.4c

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Just reviewed the current dewpoints for the UK -

    Central southern England could be more favourable this eve than initially forecast

    6FA65133-6D05-4695-BB34-54562DDCF3F1.thumb.png.6c0d4dabfa0c74a8b7168fc2aea3e19e.png

    Ive been mentioning this all day in the midlands forum which is why some models bring a more widespread snow risk to central england later!!

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Just reviewed the current dewpoints for the UK -

    Central southern England could be more favourable this eve than initially forecast

    6FA65133-6D05-4695-BB34-54562DDCF3F1.thumb.png.6c0d4dabfa0c74a8b7168fc2aea3e19e.png

    Dew points rising fast from the West. Wet bulb temperatures do not support it either, as well as uppers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Just reviewed the current dewpoints for the UK -

    Central southern England could be more favourable this eve than initially forecast

    6FA65133-6D05-4695-BB34-54562DDCF3F1.thumb.png.6c0d4dabfa0c74a8b7168fc2aea3e19e.png

    Hi Steve, thanks for that. I’m near Stroud at the start of the Cotswolds and driving just now had a light shower of snow grains/soft hail. V surprised until I read your post, as there’s mainly rain on the radar apart from highest hills of Wales. I’ll be twitching the curtains a bit now, there’s some heavy ‘bits’ gonna skirt where I am this evening! 

    Edited by SilverWolf
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Dew points rising fast from the West. Wet bulb temperatures do not support it either, as well as uppers.

    Think you're probably right there. It just isn't cold enough for an approaching front not to raise the temps/dew points too high for snow. Let's face it, down in these parts we need something akin to witch craft to enable a westerly front to fall as snow. Even here in the Mendips, I'll be amazed if it's anything other than rain, maybe up on the plateau (which is 60 or so meters higher than here) may get lucky.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Dew points rising fast from the West. Wet bulb temperatures do not support it either, as well as uppers.

    For midnight for say Oxford

    Uppers are -2c

    Dewpoints -2c

    WBPT height of 0c is 200M

    Partial thickness 130 DAM

    so very borderline - 

    Elevated areas ~ >150M could get into the mix. There hopefully will be less of a melt layer that planned ..

    The chance highlighted was more for central areas - certainly away from the SW..

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Glos 102m a.s.l
  • Location: Stroud, Glos 102m a.s.l
    14 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    Hi Steve, thanks for that. I’m near Stroud at the start of the Cotswolds and driving just now had a light shower of snow grains/soft hail. V surprised until I read your post, as there’s mainly rain on the radar apart from highest hills of Wales. I’ll be twitching the curtains a bit now, there’s some heavy ‘bits’ gonna skirt where I am this evening! 

    I can confirm we have snow grains too! Hello winter I've missed you!

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
    46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Just reviewed the current dewpoints for the UK -

    Central southern England could be more favourable this eve than initially forecast

    6FA65133-6D05-4695-BB34-54562DDCF3F1.thumb.png.6c0d4dabfa0c74a8b7168fc2aea3e19e.png

    PLEASE CHARGE YOUR PHONE STEVE IM GETTING PALPITATIONS ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

    After this mornings washout I think I’m now ready for a true taste of winter and enjoying all the snapshots from you guys on here.

    all the very best, stay safe and bloody enjoy it. I know I will even down here in Cornwall. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

    I see our cold rain could turn into something a little more favourable for you guys further east..... typical ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    1 minute ago, Argyle1980 said:

    After this mornings washout I think I’m now ready for a true taste of winter and enjoying all the snapshots from you guys on here.

    all the very best, stay safe and bloody enjoy it. I know I will even down here in Cornwall. 

    Cornwall got some surprises during the Beast last year, hopefully you'll get some more nice surprises this time too. From what my befuddled brain can decipher in the MOD thread, lots of classic battlegrounds are cropping up, if that happens you'll be sledging just as soon as you've dug yourself out ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro
    Just now, jethro said:

    Cornwall got some surprises during the Beast last year, hopefully you'll get some more nice surprises this time too. From what my befuddled brain can decipher in the MOD thread, lots of classic battlegrounds are cropping up, if that happens you'll be sledging just as soon as you've dug yourself out ?

    This was very true for last year and to date the best snowfall since the 80’s for us in Cornwall.

     Most definitely looking forward to some of those problems. Even my Girlfriend who’s 6 months pregnant plans to make the most of it. ?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    4.3°C currently, awaiting the arrival of the: image.thumb.png.647c8574bcf3f0a48111817e4d90b5bc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    2 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

    This was very true for last year and to date the best snowfall since the 80’s for us in Cornwall.

     Most definitely looking forward to some of those problems. Even my Girlfriend who’s 6 months pregnant plans to make the most of it. ?

     

    Hmmm. not sure that 6 months pregnant and sledging is the best combination, maybe snowman building instead eh.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

    Temperature rising here now, up to 6.2°C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro
    13 minutes ago, jethro said:

    Hmmm. not sure that 6 months pregnant and sledging is the best combination, maybe snowman building instead eh.

    I’ve had the same convo with her so She won’t be sitting on a sledge. However, Nicky can watch me enjoy the sledding ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Temperature starting to rise here too as the front nears, 4.5°C

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

    Currently 6.1°C here and you'd have to be a magician to get anything other than rain falling here tonight. Has to be said we are neither inland nor at height, so fair doos...

    Edited by Dorsetbred
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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    1 hour ago, jethro said:

    Think you're probably right there. It just isn't cold enough for an approaching front not to raise the temps/dew points too high for snow. Let's face it, down in these parts we need something akin to witch craft to enable a westerly front to fall as snow. Even here in the Mendips, I'll be amazed if it's anything other than rain, maybe up on the plateau (which is 60 or so meters higher than here) may get lucky.

    Not a flake to report here jeth.

    Cold outlook but snow... im still not so sure we will see any next week. ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Different in Stroud! The radar is showing in area of moderate/heavy  rain and has been for 15 mins. All I’m getting is bursts of ‘ice’ falling, not like hail (too small!) but too big for snow grains. Makes a great sound on glass, and a tarp outside.. Sure it’s not snow, but interesting none the less, as it doesn’t seem that cold out to be honest (sorry no thermometer at moment). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath

    First flake on the season. I had it wide open to lamppost watch and a big ice blob fell onto the window. Just one. But still counts I'd say! Hoping for some more later as the dew point is still below freezing here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    3 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    First flake on the season. I had it wide open to lamppost watch and a big ice blob fell onto the window. Just one. But still counts I'd say! Hoping for some more later as the dew point is still below freezing here.

    Photographic proof or signed confirmation from an independent witness is required this year, the rules have been far too lax for people to report snowfall in the past. Now Mapantz is control we are tightening up the regulations:oldgood:

    Edited by Dorsetbred
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I'm on a tea break at the moment, don't take advantage. ?

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