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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Started in Swindon looking at the tip cam.

Can confirm. It’s light and fine right now but definitely snowing in Swindon

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6 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi All

Have a genuine question. 

Earlier frome was under orange and it hammered down massive flakes . 

 

Now or look at this image from now on the radar albeit 15 mins delay 

under orange and yet not a flake falling right now  ? 

 

How is that possible ? Any tech heads please elaborate for a simpleton such as myself 

tjanks of you can 

 

C85F311A-CD4F-4543-95FE-743963677572.png

Looks like quite a poor rendering from that perticualt radar site.

MET OFFICE radar for same time, much more detailed and realistic, higher res and quality?

D0287FB9-FE6F-479D-B207-EF10F718061C.thumb.png.a7a5605e5095574a2583391a7d5ba3d3.png

 

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Whatever happens, don't trust the radar, apparently it's completely dry in my location at the moment, but on further inspection, it's still snowing at a decent intensity!

IMG_20190131_211554.jpg

Screenshot_20190131-211742.png

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@Bring Back1962-63 I've noted that the ppn in north Devon and Wales has started to creep back west. Lots going on with this system!

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When they heavy snow going to be coming through just been light snow up north hampshire so far ??? 

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image.thumb.png.533b2f5370338dc2fe8d3b28052bf3fa.png

Right... so as far as can be told from the dodgy radar, there's a good wraparound that's moving gradually ENE - in line with the 12z HIRLAM - which is the last hope for the western Solent region prior to whatever manages to fall tomorrow daytime.

That area looks to be building intensity a bit, but it's hard to be sure what to believe, as prior to the radar bugging out, there was more to the east of that feature that suddenly disappeared from the imagery, so possibly the snow is blocking the radar view of that area.

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Snow now in Wantage, heavier stuff to come if radar is to be believed. And I'm not sure it is tonight to be honest, some very non-natural looking linear streaks across it near my location!  Very unphysical.  

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6 minutes ago, Argyle1980 said:

Still a chance maybe for a little more excitement for us Cornish folk with this little feature moving up from the south bumping into the cold air could deliver the goods 😊

09A50A61-383D-41A9-87EA-B8718444969D.png

Spotlight suggested it would be a Cornish only feature!!

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image.thumb.png.eaaf7bbbbe13f50b6b0069e95054cbc2.png

Still sat here in my little bubble of pathetic. Bizarre! 

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5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Radar looking way better now, everything heading slowly north and shearing east.

CD907C6D-C085-4A97-AA50-71A20FD6FD2F.thumb.png.10a46af5108543e1477c75d6318a8daf.png

hopefully will bring those who haven’t seen anything into the game 🙂 

Just need to be a tad more patient here in Cheltenham, points west forecast didn't show the main band of snow reaching here until atleast 11pm🙄

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Covering of about 1 inch already here, the only road not covered is my one because it is gritted!

Still snowing heavily, for probably another few hours!

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1 minute ago, festivalking said:

Spotlight suggested it would be a Cornish only feature!!

I haven’t seen the local news but I was thinking this could chuck up a few surprises. 

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Looks like quite a poor rendering from that perticualt radar site.

MET OFFICE radar for same time, much more detailed and realistic, higher res and quality?

D0287FB9-FE6F-479D-B207-EF10F718061C.thumb.png.a7a5605e5095574a2583391a7d5ba3d3.png

 

Cheers Chris 

 

i slso use this one 

but yours looks great 

is that free? 

988D44F8-7B64-4B58-BF31-3C119DF98DF9.png

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Snow always looks better when there's very little wind.

Moderate / Heavy snow for a good while now, happy days.

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Just started to snow north wilts 

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1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

Covering of about 1 inch already here, the only road not covered is my one because it is gritted!

Still snowing heavily, for probably another few hours!

Yeah my road is unfortunately gritted but the street across the way isn't and has a good covering 

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More snow will hit Poole and Bournemouth shortly. Possible thunder snow thrown in later too. See how this develops. 

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6 minutes ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Whatever happens, don't trust the radar, apparently it's completely dry in my location at the moment, but on further inspection, it's still snowing at a decent intensity!

IMG_20190131_211554.jpg

Screenshot_20190131-211742.png

I was thinking that when I saw the last report from near Christchurch!

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6 minutes ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Whatever happens, don't trust the radar, apparently it's completely dry in my location at the moment, but on further inspection, it's still snowing at a decent intensity!

IMG_20190131_211554.jpg

Screenshot_20190131-211742.png

Aha!

Just call me Detective Singularity 😎😅.

Best news I've had in the last couple of hours, cheers!

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37 minutes ago, knocker said:

Unless 62-63 has detailed evidence to the contrary  which is not available to the rest of us,  I would  suggest the 'breakaway' low did not  form on the upper occlusion as upper fronts are not particularly active and it's far more likely that it was a wave on the surface front in the channel

Thanks for that Knocker! I stand corrected on that specific point.  The breakaway LP did indeed form on the surface occlusion as can be seen on this evenings charts:. 

kn2.thumb.PNG.1b31bd675f42620f72b6a4ceaaa59bb0.PNG 

 kn1.thumb.PNG.e921a104815ff3b49d2b24c5dc0203e0.PNG

 

This morning's fax chart (below) for 0600 tomorrow did not pick up on this feature - always difficult to nail down this type of detail, especially in this set up. The position of the upper occlusion has also changed and very likely has changed again since this chart was prepared.

31stf.thumb.PNG.a60d0c25a21338e7a84fb058083ef241.PNG

 

Let's also look at forecast fax for 12 noon tomorrow:

kn3.thumb.PNG.351924cc1bf3af99dd28844a193026f2.PNG

The main LP is predicted to move in Biscay and the surface occlusion is predicted to be pivoting southwards in the south west Channel and slightly north westwards in the Southern North Sea.  This finer detail may well be slightly changed by the morning, especially if another minor feature develops on the occlusion. 

Meanwhile the snow continues to fall steadily here in Exmouth..  More later this evening.  David 🙂 

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I've been sticking my phone and recording with flash on out my window every few minutes for the past hour. Neighbour's are gonna get a little worried when I am still doing it at 2 in the morning. 😂

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Very Intriguing to see what is going to occur with the approaching PPN to the SW. 

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