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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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4 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Check the radar, oh look, now brighter echo's have suddenly appeared just to the north of us ***must not swear!!! ***

Keep calm, it will happen fingers crossed 🤞 

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4 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

I agree with you 100% as usual James 🙂 

Some on here are looking at misleading information and making erroneous comments - I understand the excitement/disappointment etc.  The snow area has actually been expanding (not contracting). Most models did NOT forecast the the breakaway LP forming on the upper occlusion ahead of the main LP which now may be spawning another break away feature or is becoming even more east/west and pivoting/elongating. This is a highly complex set up and is continuously evolving.  

 

Indeed David, been watching this loop for a few hours now. Interesting developments over Somerset and Dorset. 

 

lastsnowradar_uk (1).gif

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6 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

I agree with you 100% as usual James 🙂 

Some on here are looking at misleading information and making erroneous comments - I understand the excitement/disappointment etc.  The snow area has actually been expanding (not contracting). Most models did NOT forecast the the breakaway LP forming on the upper occlusion ahead of the main LP which now may be spawning another break away feature or is becoming even more east/west and pivoting/elongating. This is a highly complex set up and is continuously evolving.  

On the current NetWx I should be under rain but here in Exmouth, I'm less than a mile inland and at a modest 65m and it has been snowing for several hours now, often quite heavily.  It has now settled on all surfaces - about 1 cm on the road and pavements and well over 2 cm on the cars and grass. It looks set to continue on and off for much of the next 12 hours.

Most models did NOT forecast the the breakaway LP forming on the upper occlusion ahead of the main LP which now may be spawning another break away feature or is becoming even more east/west and pivoting/elongating. This is a highly complex set up and is continuously evolving.  

Live Pressure (UK chart is GMT and NW France chart is GMT + 1 hour):

Watch that LP as it should move eastwards or north eastwards. It sucks down the cold air from the north and maintains the precipitation. I believe that another small centre may formv (or is already forming off) Land's End - the main centre is still over 200 miles to the west of Land's End.  The surface occlusion is likely to pulse north and south several times along these mini features.  The upper occlusion is roughly along the line of heaviest snow (red/deep pink on the radar) east to west from mid Surrey westwards to north east Devon.  The clearance in the west has stalled as part of the snow area returns south westwards.  It is uncertain how much northward impetus there will be from the current occlusion, the breakaway feature, any new feature developing or even the main LP but a fair amount of lighter snow has already pushed into the south west Midlands and south east Wales. 

The winds are increasingly backing towards the east north east and the few remaining less cold areas like the IOW will see their temps falling quite soon and join in the fun quite soon (IMO).

David 🙂 

 

12

You, sir, are a star! Love your input to this thread. Although, many are disappointed thus far including me in Newbury, the wait will shortly be over. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Put a bottle of champers in,  only to be drunk if it snowed...................yippee.  It's still snowing, which right down by the sea is worth celebrating.  (Although to be fair I can be persuaded to open a bottle in less extreme circumstances!)

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1 minute ago, Snow Of '78 said:

Ahh, I remember the 2013 news story of heavy snow in that area. (cars abandoned etc)

Are you getting g lots in Bridgwater? It’s only up the road.

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Just now, matt111 said:

Still going and settling well now 

E336C5C6-7535-4884-B664-5921BE030451.jpeg

FB117802-C92D-4402-B238-C2330C36620B.jpeg

It’s brilliant isn’t it. I’m a 5 min walk to the beach, you must be similar. Met still have us having rain for the next two hours then the snow kicks in🤣🤣🤣

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16 minutes ago, Jase74 said:

Aleyna? Nice pics. Weird how Tavistock didn't even get a dusting when you did as did bere Alston, gunnislake, Plymouth etc. Tavistock snow shield worked perfectly today! 

Can't believe tavi had nothing! Even at home near Milton abbot there's a good inch or two. Looking forward to driving to Okehampton at 5.30am tomorrow 🤔 Heard Princetown has been cut off! 

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Met Office app has heavy snow for Frome from 22:00 through to 04:00, I just cannot see it myself - not unless I'm missing something??

Looking at the radar, IMO it seems further east, Hampshire / Surrey / Berks looks like they will be getting the heavier PPN?

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The snow we have falling now is the heaviest it's been since the front first reached these parts, still nothing compared to what others have and are experiencing though. 

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Can't see the M4 around Swindon on the radar now  so moving in the right direction and looking tasty around Painswick to the north but only the odd flakes in Stroud so far 🙁

Radar....couldn't make it up!Screenshot_20190131-201348.thumb.jpg.23ba447d1e4075c6b48e94fd8256d18a.jpg

Hopefully will get some later. If not I'm having a lovely cosy evening ☺

Lush seeing some of you on the coast getting some snow 😁 

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image.thumb.png.e8c80f27688d4a117031792924097592.png

Been stuck in this little pocket of nothingness for ages now. Barely even got a dusting as it's all swirling around us! 😥

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Just now, CheesepuffScott said:

God, I'm not going to be able to sleep tonight I don't think.

The heavier the snow the less likely you'll be able to sleep. But, handily, the heavier the snow the less likely you'll be able to get to work for it to matter 🙂

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Still absolutely nothing here between Newbury and Basingstoke. One of the most benign evenings for a ping time 😞

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1 minute ago, Tobertron said:

image.thumb.png.e8c80f27688d4a117031792924097592.png

Been stuck in this little pocket of nothingness for ages now. Barely even got a dusting as it's all swirling around us! 😥

Yeah, just a dusting here too in South Wilts. Hopefully that heavier ppn to the south will help out here

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9 minutes ago, offerman said:

Big flakes too Fromey 

settling nicely . Nice surprise a complete turn around from earlier dissapointment. 

 

 

BE06CF4B-6021-439E-AAD8-5791E977D383.jpeg

i think we are in the sweet spot

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Right that's it, I give up for down here, been snowing, nothing laying and it's about to all move through. Good luck everyone and stay safe 👍🏻

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Have not drunk since Christmas Day, have had a few cans of Stella sat in the fridge from then, think going to have to crack a few open. 😂

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s brilliant isn’t it. I’m a 5 min walk to the beach, you must be similar. Met still have us having rain for the next two hours then the snow kicks in🤣🤣🤣

Yes 10 minute walk to the beach from here. Shows heavy snow here until 1am then light snow until 4am.

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There really power showers heading the south west pushing North worth watching good luck!

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