Jump to content

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Really depressed here ? thought we might finally be in with a shout! Not meant to be!! Soooo annoying living on this island sometimes ?

heavy rain still...

Better chance later for you when the wind turns 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 7.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Nice little walk with the hound.

Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

Guys good luck today -As they say one mans loss is another mans gain - well for once in the UK the south & SW are going to gobble up the Norths snow ? Someone in North Devon / Somerset / Wilt

Posted Images

Just now, khodds said:

What’s with the gaps?!

6192A416-BFCC-422C-98BA-79D116833E70.png

That was shown on some model output today.  I did highlight that scenario.

Front may split, with PPN in South Wales and PPN heading into CSE England.

Emphasise "may" split.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just directly observed a transition to mostly wet snow with a little light rain persisting. The bigger they are, the more frozen they fall... or something like that!

Only under the 0.5 mm/hr radar readings, so it's encouraging to see such wintry content already.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, AWD said:

That was shown on some model output today.  I did highlight that scenario.

Front may split, with PPN in South Wales and PPN heading into CSE England.

Emphasise "may" split.

the radar is glitched to buggery, and secondly Ian F stated that the front will not split......to quote...."this stuff on NW SW thread incorrect - nothing to do re front splitting. The signal for less snow parts N Som/Bridgwater Bay area etc is via strong orographic modulation in SE flow. Classic signal: note same to lee of Cotswolds in some HRES output."

Link to post
Share on other sites

 Snow totals from about the middle of Dorset across to the middle of Hampshire northwards are going to be much less than first thought because of the pivot keeping the heavier precipitation along the south coast New Forest Southampton Portsmouth Bournemouth Poole those types of areas 

 There will still be a covering but not as much as first envisaged between 5 to 10 cm in the amber area that will no longer happen in my opinion 

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Really depressed here ? thought we might finally be in with a shout! Not meant to be!! Soooo annoying living on this island sometimes ?

heavy rain still...

Heavy snow startng to settle here in Exmouth and dipped to 0c. Let me cheer you up - the Isle of Wight may be right in the sweet spot within 2 hours.  The minor LP that developed ahead of the main system will be right over you by then (just to the south).  Current pressure:

ap1.thumb.PNG.73a9fe6adc92126a4b62fdffe7db87c6.PNG

Then Aperge picks it up nicely:

ap2.thumb.PNG.eb0bd90f018b16a6e578b3797ca0dbe7.PNG

The breakaway LP swings eastwards.

ap3.thumb.PNG.d236d9d173ae9e7198141fec9e6ba865.PNG

Just south of the IOW and you'll be sucking in the cold air from the north.  Your current 4c will be 0c or below within 2 to 3 hours (if not sooner).  All the southern coastal areas will benefit from this "unusual" feature.  For those further north - note the main LP is still expected to swing into the Channel and likely to push the snow further north - difficult to say how far but the occlusion will be close to us overnight and into tomorrow morning - so plenty of time yet. The current clearance from the west is also temporary and snow is likely to spread back southwestwards behind the breakaway feature and ahead of the main LP.  All that has happened is that we have "seemingly" a little bonus 3 to 6 hours ahead of the main event. The two snow areas may well combine for a few hours as well. A complicated set up that needs to be monitored.

ap4.thumb.PNG.854eacf326d0f3ce25480f6feb9aa0f6.PNG

Temps falling generally now

ap5.thumb.PNG.0ca0aefe7fc0f52984905a672aedfb91.PNG

Dew points are fine and surface (ground) temps are likely to remain in the 0c to 2c range for most of us (not shown).. David ? 

 

 

 

Edited by Guest
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

the radar is glitched to buggery, and secondly Ian F stated that the front will not split......to quote...."this stuff on NW SW thread incorrect - nothing to do re front splitting. The signal for less snow parts N Som/Bridgwater Bay area etc is via strong orographic modulation in SE flow. Classic signal: note same to lee of Cotswolds in some HRES output."

Where can I see this quote please?

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Windswept said:

Yet again going to miss out, its always too far west, to far east, too far south or this time too far north...

On the few times any snow does reach here its just a dusting, dont think its possible to get heavy snow in Gloucester.

It was alright in 1982 ?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the next hour or so it will snow readily in most parts I would say judging by this, it is pepping up. I expect larger falls (say 3-4 inches plus) likely over the Mendips, Cotswold and North and South Downs tonight upcoming. It is very slow moving which is good news as far as those wanting some snow cover are concerned.

 

 

UKMO Radar Grab 310119 1745hrs.GIF

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...