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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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6 minutes ago, jtay said:

Are you a Pirate these days karlos?

PMSL that made me spit my coffee out 🤣🤣🤣 #simplethingspleasesimpleminds 

 

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image.thumb.png.862e5ef3c7034b6600504720ebf6b5c4.png

Just thought Id post this snap shot from gfs, and seems to indicate a slight north of  East flow along the cannel. this may do us a IOWers  a better chance of snow.

Sorry singularity this post was meant as a reply to your post, where you alluded to a maritime influence along the south coast, but I couldn't find it when I scrolled though.

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DP here tumbling!!! Was 1.8c now down to -0.7

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15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Spotted a drop in dew points in the past hour back down to zero over the Channel and along the South Coast.

That'll be the low-level cold, dry air from the snow-laden N. France lending us a hand. In fact that downward forcing on the dew points could, alongside evaporative cooling, be a critical factor for the far south that keeps conditions the right side of marginal. Perhaps this is what's given the Met Office cause to depict snow even further south than the model consensus.

I think as always in situations like these they'll be reliant on field observations, i.e. our forum posts, for example. Today feels like a quickly changing and still developing event and one which could yet yield much more snow than initially anticipated. Maybe several inches will fall on a local level now I reckon. The latter is more of a hunch than anything else, but what you're stating adds to that outside possibility. I sincerely hope the rain/sleet element is negligible, so most get to join in, in fun.

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Latest MET office forecast

 

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Temp 4.9°C here. Dew point is 0.5°C. However, wet bulb temperature is 3.1°C.

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3 minutes ago, AWD said:

 

Thanks AWD,feel a lot better about things now.

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It’s starting to sleet here in Plymouth- this could spring a surprise I think!

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4.8 c here but dp has fallen to 0c so hoping the downwards trend continues. Wind has picked up significantly. 

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Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

AWD beat me to it 

Your elevation is really going to do you wonders later, i'm only 5 mins from pucklechurch!

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Just now, TomW said:

Your elevation is really going to do you wonders later, i'm only 5 mins from pucklechurch!

Yes that's what I am hoping, drove in to Bristol earlier and its 2c warmer down there, hovering around freezing here.

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Just now, Blizzardof82 said:

Yes that's what I am hoping, drove in to Bristol earlier and its 2c warmer down there, hovering around freezing here.

2.1C here dew point 0.0C was -7.6C min last night coldest of the year!

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Dew point and temps tumbling here in Gosport now.

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Temp rising a little in Clevedon 2.4, guess because of the front moving in. Dew Point rising to 0.5.

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41 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Spotted a drop in dew points in the past hour back down to zero over the Channel and along the South Coast.

That'll be the low-level cold, dry air from the snow-laden N. France lending us a hand. In fact that downward forcing on the dew points could, alongside evaporative cooling, be a critical factor for the far south that keeps conditions the right side of marginal. Perhaps this is what's given the Met Office cause to depict snow even further south than the model consensus.

Spot on James.  Those will be dragged in this afternoon on the southerlies and then the winds back to off-shore and game on this evening for many of us.  

I haven't time to repeat all the charts but here's a link to my early morning post (now buried on page 138) where the live pressure, temp and radar charts are all auto updating:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90939-south-west-and-central-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-01122018-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3997547

To add to that - here are the dew points:

                          Live

pointrosee.png

                 24 hours to 1248

anim_ncd4.gif

 

In my early post, I was referring to the wind backing during today and becoming "off-shore" this evening - a really key ingredient:

  For around now = south south east

31std.thumb.PNG.361e21eddb762c6725bbbd1bfedbd8bd.PNG

 

For later this evening = east north east

31ste.thumb.PNG.0aaa36a451d20662fbd07e35ff7a3b0f.PNG

Will any snow settle?

31stc.thumb.PNG.91dde68f1e4df519a685cf2b7499ad66.PNG

Yes!  The penetrating frost last night means that sub surface temps (down to around 5 to 10 cm) fell well below freezing.  The surface temps over most of our region will be 1c to 2c for most of the next 24 hours.  Any moderate snow will settle quite quickly.  Those that have quite a bit of rain beforehand will see it become slushy and then white.  It's a falacy that "wet ground prevents snow from settling" .  The surface and immediate sub surface temps are key + the 2M temps + the dew points + the rate of snowfall.  Overall, things do not seem to be quite as marginal as I thought that they might be only a day ago. The conditions this evening and overnight look conducive for settling snow providing the LP and the occlusion behave themselves.

Finally Friday's 0600 MetO Fax chart:

31stf.thumb.PNG.ecba6349268270784e385bb87d4c5190.PNG

Note the leading occluded front that has stalled over southern England.  I call this a "ghost" front as they are white on the map.  This is the northern boundary of the less cold air but not at the surface.  It has climbed over the cold air which is also providing a nice undercut. The less cold air at the surface is marked by the standard (black) occluded front which is then over the french coast and the southern English Channel.   No more time but it's looking pretty encouraging.  David 🙂 

  

 

 

 

Edited by Guest

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1 minute ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

 

 

Finally Friday's 0600 MetO Fax chart:

31stf.thumb.PNG.ecba6349268270784e385bb87d4c5190.PNG

Note the leading occluded front that has stalled over southern England.  I call this a "ghost" front as they are white on the map.  This is the northern boundary of the less cold air but not at the surface.  It is climbed over the cold air which is also providing a nice undercut. The less cold air at the surface is marked by the standard (black) occluded front which is then over the french coast and the southern English Channel.   No more time but it's looking pretty encouraging.  David 🙂 

  

 

 

 

Something of a classic chart that one! Pretty much the perfect setup. Wow.

Edited by West is Best

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4 minutes ago, rh205 said:

Dew point and temps tumbling here in Gosport now.

Yes now 0.5 c on the north of the Island. Brilliant

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Looks like it could start as rain here hope it doesn't rain to much before it turns to snow!

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1 minute ago, wightwootton said:

Yes now 0.5 c on the north of the Island. Brilliant

5 degrees Bournemouth airport, Portland 5 degrees

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Just a few weeks ago we had an inch or so of snow from just a passing shower overnight because the ground was so cold. Boded well - grass still frozen here with cloud cover and a breeze, that rarely happens this time of day. 

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