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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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Just now, AWD said:

Amber warning very similiar to my thoughts earlier, ie South/South East Wales, Moors of the SW & areas around the A303/Mendips into Salisbury plain.

They have included inland Somerset and Bristol/Bath in the amber warning too which is very good.  Must be thinking along the lines of the Hirlam scenario then.

Surprised they haven't included areas further east along the South Coast as the EURO4 has been consistently remodelling decent accumulations here too and these are populated areas of the UK, ie Winchester, Brighton, Worthing, Havant etc.

I guess they are still waiting till later on these areas. Looks like they won't be affected during the rush hour anymore, too.

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13 minutes ago, Climate_Eyes said:

Tiny flakes but definitely snow blowing about from the tiniest blob on the radar 😀

It's not much, but it's a start!

Encouraging to see this reported under what the radar shows as sleet. Earlier I hear there was even some rain on the radar that actually fell as snow near Southampton.

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1 minute ago, mattyj said:

Hi guys  wanting an experts advice, I live in ferndown dorset and am under a amber warning for snow do you think i will get much here thanks 

The amber warning says it all mate.

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

The amber warning says it all mate.

These warnings are confusing, Cardiff in the amber but when you go on the forecast for Cardiff there's no warning.

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19 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Do you remember April 2000? Hours of driving sleet down on the levels, the Mendips got pasted higher up. I moved to Wookey Hole village late April and the fields above still had snow patches in May...

I remember it well, I moved house that day, fun and games.

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

The amber warning says it all mate.

Ok thanks Ben im a  bit of a newbie lol

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4 minutes ago, mattyj said:

Hi guys  wanting an experts advice, I live in ferndown dorset and am under a amber warning for snow do you think i will get much here thanks 

We're not experts, we're chancers.

You're not far from me and I'm pretty hopeful.

 

Edit : Scratch that @Singularity is here. He's an expert and lives closer to you, then me.

Edited by jtay

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29 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

As my post clearly stated, it was what Ian F said last night...Please feel free to view his forecast.

As he also said, the forecast will homed in TODAY with regards to warnings (as per the Amber) and a more clearer picture. So basically its not what I think, its what Ian F said last and night the Meto text today. 

Try a bit of nowcasting..... this is our friendly regional thread. Not the oneupmanship thread... 😊

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Just now, mattyj said:

Ok thanks Ben im a  bit of a newbie lol

No worries you'll get to know things with time!

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Euro4 snow ppn chart just posted in the Hunt for Cold thread puts soton right in the sweet spot - amazing!

I need to get back from Worthing today - think I might leave sooner rather than later. Last time I tried to get somewhere before it got bad was horrendous (Dec 09?). And I dont have any appropriate clothing with me...

Temp in Southampton still just 1.6C and son reports snow flurry at the University about an hour ago.

Good luck, everyone!

Edited by katemart

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06z EURO4 by dawn Friday morning;

19020106_3106.thumb.gif.4c0ad36de056594a26258d1614e7ae0a.gif

06z Hirlam by dawn Friday morning;

snowdepth_20190131_06_024.thumb.jpg.f08886bb272d9fe63cb7ace7d297c704.jpg

Inland areas of the South Coast could be the place to be now.  pin up your ears if you live around Axminster, Salisbury, Romsey, Winchester, Fareham, Havant etc.

Both models now have the front barely making it north of the M4!

Edited by AWD
Spelling

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So hopeful we’ll get some decent snow in Swindon.

I have ASD with sensory issues and I’ve never experienced silence quite like when you go out early after a fresh heavy snowfall. All surfaces coated, no-one out, quiet roads and the snow seems to absorb all the other natural sounds in the environment. I’m constantly being overloaded with noise even down to the hum of electricity... I get so much peace from snow

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I'm at work where there's a sunken terrace that really holds onto frost. Very tempted to put the sprinkler on slow, see if it's cold enough to freeze it into a decent ice rink 😉

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2 minutes ago, AWD said:

06z EURO4 by dawn Friday morning;

19020106_3106.thumb.gif.4c0ad36de056594a26258d1614e7ae0a.gif

06z Hirlam by dawn Friday morning;

snowdepth_20190131_06_024.thumb.jpg.f08886bb272d9fe63cb7ace7d297c704.jpg

Inland areas of the South Coast could be the place to be now.  book up your ears if you live around Axminster, Salisbury, Romsey, Winchester, Fareham, Havant etc.

Both models now have the front barely making it north of the M4!

Basingstoke looks good💥

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9 minutes ago, mattyj said:

Hi guys  wanting an experts advice, I live in ferndown dorset and am under a amber warning for snow do you think i will get much here thanks 

You are placed perfectly in my opinion. 3-7 Cm my bet for Ferndown 👍❄️

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2 minutes ago, AWD said:

06z EURO4 by dawn Friday morning;

19020106_3106.thumb.gif.4c0ad36de056594a26258d1614e7ae0a.gif

06z Hirlam by dawn Friday morning;

snowdepth_20190131_06_024.thumb.jpg.f08886bb272d9fe63cb7ace7d297c704.jpg

Inland areas of the South Coast could be the place to be now.  book up your ears if you live around Axminster, Salisbury, Romsey, Winchester, Fareham, Havant etc.

Both models now have the front barely making it north of the M4!

I like EURO4 better. Gives coastal areas a decent amount too. 

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Up to 1.8C here after a low of -5.3C, but that should be good for snow as long as it doesn't creep up much further

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54 minutes ago, fromey said:

Beat me to it, it’s on my pc but not my phone

 Morning Fromey

 

 What are they saying in the amber warning area ? Thanks 

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7 minutes ago, AWD said:

06z EURO4 by dawn Friday morning;

19020106_3106.thumb.gif.4c0ad36de056594a26258d1614e7ae0a.gif

06z Hirlam by dawn Friday morning;

snowdepth_20190131_06_024.thumb.jpg.f08886bb272d9fe63cb7ace7d297c704.jpg

Inland areas of the South Coast could be the place to be now.  book up your ears if you live around Axminster, Salisbury, Romsey, Winchester, Fareham, Havant etc.

Both models now have the front barely making it north of the M4!

These precipitation amounts are just guides of course. How many times when it's just rain do we see precipitation amounts go mental even as the event is happening, or on the other hand not quite live up to expectations?

Being someone who likes to dream ... I note some predictions of intensity in the channel get over 8mm per hour. If that could hold together until landfall... well who knows how much snow might fall tonight close to the coast?

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1 minute ago, offerman said:

 Morning Fromey

 

 What are they saying in the amber warning area ? Thanks 

morning, copied from website

Between 14:00 Thu 31st and 21:00 Thu 31st

Heavy snow likely on Thursday afternoon and evening.

What to expect

Travel delays on roads are likely, stranding some vehicles and passengers

Some delays and cancellations to rail travel are likely

There is a good chance that some rural communities could become cut off

Power cuts are likely and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected

we are on the edge f the amber

fromey

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Its turned out a pleasant bright morning with good spells of sunshine.
The temp has risen now to 5.4c.
The SSE wind has picked up to 12mph.

 

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11 minutes ago, jethro said:

I'm at work where there's a sunken terrace that really holds onto frost. Very tempted to put the sprinkler on slow, see if it's cold enough to freeze it into a decent ice rink 😉

Do it

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25 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Encouraging to see this reported under what the radar shows as sleet. Earlier I hear there was even some rain on the radar that actually fell as snow near Southampton.

Hi Singularity, yes it was unexpected as it was only the tinest patch which started off pink then changed to sleet at the penultimate frame before it disappeared. Lasted for around 15 minutes, just tiny flakes but definitely precip rather than blown from trees, and left a (very) light covering . I'm hope anything later will remain at least as wet snow around here.

Edited by Climate_Eyes
Edit: a word

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