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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

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Temp rising fast now, was -4.1c half an our ago, now -3.6c

Really annoying the way the snow prediction charts above have rain for the coast. Still have a bad feeling about this.

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8 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Temp rising fast now, was -4.1c half an our ago, now -3.6c

Really annoying the way the snow prediction charts above have rain for the coast. Still have a bad feeling about this.

You will probably see snow falling at some stage, but onto already wet ground when the front pushes in. That will be the case in most areas in North Somerset, a wet ground rain/sleet/snow event. Up on the Mendips will be a different story. 

Edited by Lloyds32

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Morning weather fiends. -2.2 here with a dp of -2.9. I still have a feeling about a sleet/rain event imby just too close to the coast. 

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But..... this is an upgrade from the meto for tomorrow! Although I do have a hospital appt to get to tomorrow. 

Screenshot_20190131-062231_Met Office.jpg

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27 minutes ago, divadee said:

Morning weather fiends. -2.2 here with a dp of -2.9. I still have a feeling about a sleet/rain event imby just too close to the coast. 

Hi i just checked met office weather icons has bearwood bournemouth down for heavy snow for 3 hours from 5pm m and the guy on the met office for cast says they are uncertain but even the south coast could see the snow all to play for 

Edited by mattyj

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Today and tomorrow will be fascinating for a our region in terms of how much snow any of us will see.  The set up is really a near nowcast situation with very small changes in the track of the LP and position of the frontal band being critical.  I'll show the overnight, current and "live" charts (the live charts "should" auto update every 10 minutes - you may need to refresh the page). It's currently -4.5c here and -6c at Exeter airport (0600).    

    Euro Pressure - 24 hours to 0600 

anim_miz2.gif

                Pressure  at 0620                                                    

31stb.thumb.PNG.820932916b79eab51835cb8bfb68e019.PNG

                  Live Pressure 

pression2.png

 

         Temps - 24 hours to 0600 

anim_era6.gif

            SW Temps as at 0600

31staa.thumb.png.a785f11876e349504e85b382c0269966.png

                      Live Temps

temp.png   

 

                       Live Radar

lastsnowradar_uk.gif

 

                     Live Satelitte

anim_ir.gif

 

David 🙂 

 

Edited by Guest
check charts and correct typos

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3 minutes ago, mattyj said:

Hi i just checked met office weather icons has bearwood bournemouth down for heavy snow for 3 hours from 5pm m and the guy on the met office for cast says they are uncertain but even the south coast could see the snow all to play for 

I hope so Matty. I am in central Bournemouth so only 6m asl and it's tricky to get any decent snow here. Thus set up is a strange one so who knows. 

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Still looks good but itv forecast just now made it look a bit patchy in nature. 

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The overnight 0z Hirlam improves prospects for the West Country again;

snowdepth_20190131_00_036.thumb.jpg.68c0ab604bf62045d6b0ec271b5baf59.jpg

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Thanks David! Those live charts are super helpful.

It was an ice rink outside last night, but as you can see from the live temps Salcombe is now just above freezing. Wind has also picked up so no scraping required at all this morning!😁

Good luck to everyone today, other parts of Devon and further north or east should have fun!

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Itv West said rain possibly turning to snow!! Possibly?? I mean really.. 

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3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Itv West said rain possibly turning to snow!! Possibly?? I mean really.. 

That's always been possible, albeit briefly for areas further north in the region.  The further south you area, and lower down nearer the coast (ie Bristol channel coasts), that's more than possible.

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6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Itv West said rain possibly turning to snow!! Possibly?? I mean really.. 

Ian F's forecast from last night really indicates that initially temperatures will not be cold enough for snow, looks pretty wet at first then it will turn to snow later in evening. By then the ground will be wet, so accumulation amounts will be a couple cm at best. Coastal areas in North Somerset probably staying pretty damp and miserable. Up over the hills will be a different story, all round looks a damp wintry mess, for N. Somerset. PPM pretty patchy too.

edit. as per AWD above.

Edited by Lloyds32

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Before you do anything else... check out the moon, Venus and Jupiter. 

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4 minutes ago, jtay said:

Before you do anything else... check out the moon, Venus and Jupiter. 

Stunning sight wasn’t it!

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10 minutes ago, AWD said:

That's always been possible, albeit briefly for areas further north in the region.  The further south you area, and lower down nearer the coast (ie Bristol channel coasts), that's more than possible.

I think it will be mostly rain for Weston, other side of the M5 will be all snow. Might be tricky getting out of Bristol later, but  once on the A370 near Backwell should be back into the rain.

Edited by SteveB

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Surely if the front was earlier then it will be cloudy by now but it's not...

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Just for fun, here is a map of where I think, based on yesterday's and this mornings model output and broadbrush trends I've noticed;

IMG_20190131_072119.thumb.jpg.7c98b65adc7d9fef2049158e24c28410.jpg

 

Purple area = best area.  This area could see 10cm - 20cm of snowfall, especially over the Brecons.

Blue areas = I can see a split developing in the heavier PPN, with areas in northern parts of the southern coastal counties doing well, as well as the moors of the SW.  Mendips, across to the Salisbury plain etc, as well as north Dorset.  This area could see 5cm - 10cm of snow, perhaps up to around 12cm on the SW moors.

Green area = This area, with the exception of West and South Somerset includes most inland areas of the West Country and Hampshire.  Coastal areas along the Bristol channel and extreme southern coastal towns aren't included in this area as I believe, to start with at least, the PPN could be more sleety than snowy here.  Lower areas of this area could see 1cm - 4cm of snowfall, higher areas and rural areas could see 3cm - 7cm.  It's a large area so some local variations may apply based on topographic influences.

Yellow area = everybody away from southern Cornwall.  Due to the nature of this event, no model or forecast will be 100% right, so anyone in our region is at risk of a dusting of snow at least.  This area is there to cater for that.

Like I said, just for fun, just my thoughts and opinions right now.

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16 minutes ago, jtay said:

Before you do anything else... check out the moon, Venus and Jupiter. 

Yes stunning again this morning. I new one was Venus but wasnt sure what the other one was so thanks for informing 🙂 

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morning all -5.8c, lets see what today brings

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