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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
    1 minute ago, Zephyr said:

    Jay will be happy with that! ? I'll probs wait up for the 18z EURO4 tonight and then end up sleeping I haven't had much sleep past week or so waiting up for the 00z's most nights ? then up again for the 06z's. Tomorrow is finally crunch time.

    Same here. Always checking the MetO site too! I am giving myself a nervous breakdown, but it's all so exciting! I really hope it won't be a damp squib! ?

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    Nice little walk with the hound.

    Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

    Guys good luck today -As they say one mans loss is another mans gain - well for once in the UK the south & SW are going to gobble up the Norths snow ? Someone in North Devon / Somerset / Wilt

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    3 minutes ago, AWD said:

    That was the 12z EURO4 model, which conincedentally, Ian highlighted in his Points West forecast earlier.

    Still, we are all in a good position tomorrow, and we have every chance of seeing a covering of snow.

    Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    6 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

    Has there been a HIRLAM update does anybody know? Wasn't that the best performing model last March?

    It's on Gavsweathervids and it looks very good for our areas around Bristol and Bath!

     

    Skip to about 12 minutes and 15 seconds for HIRLAM

    I couldn't sleep last night and found myself waking up at 4am checking the weather for tomorrow? and had countless dreams of it showing rain! I hope it's not any worse tonight...

    Edited by Leon1
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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    Just now, Leon1 said:

    It's on Gavsweathervids and it looks very good for our areas around Bristol and Bath!

     

    Skip to about 12 minutes and 15 seconds for HIRLAM


    Nice one, cheers mate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    Hirlam accumulation charts (12z) out to 48 hrs - can't see 18z is out yet?

    19020112_3012.gif

    Edit: I'd go with that lol

    Edited by kumquat
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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? ?

    Bristol snow shield being put through its paces ready for tomorrow!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Sounds not working for me. What's he saying?

    I only skipped to the HIRLAM animation.. looked good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    Just now, Nights King said:

    Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? ?

    As the front hits the SW and heads inland, it starts to weaken and split.  One portion of PPN heads into South Wales and stalls, the other heads along the South Coast through Dorset and Hampshire.  Areas inbetween still see snowfall, just more light in nature.

    Worth noting, not all models show this scenario, the 12z Hirlam didn't, producing a rather palatable snowfall for Somerset and the Bristol area.

    Just shows the volatility of the situation still.  I've just got this nagging feeling the EURO4 might be on the right track here, just my personal opinion of course.

    Still, plenty of interest at least.  Some of us are going to wake up to a good snowfall on Friday morning, just not sure which county yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    Just now, AWD said:

    As the front hits the SW and heads inland, it starts to weaken and split.  One portion of PPN heads into South Wales and stalls, the other heads along the South Coast through Dorset and Hampshire.  Areas inbetween still see snowfall, just more light in nature.

    Worth noting, not all models show this scenario, the 12z Hirlam didn't, producing a rather palatable snowfall for Somerset and the Bristol area.

    Just shows the volatility of the situation still.  I've just got this nagging feeling the EURO4 might be on the right track here, just my personal opinion of course.

    Still, plenty of interest at least.  Some of us are going to wake up to a good snowfall on Friday morning, just not sure which county yet.

    How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

    7cm - 12cm

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

    sad-snowman-sykesville.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    18z Hirlam;

    snowdepth_20190130_18_042.thumb.jpg.e02b80e5e68e232a0965b6460b8892a8.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
    1 minute ago, AWD said:

    18z Hirlam;

    snowdepth_20190130_18_042.thumb.jpg.e02b80e5e68e232a0965b6460b8892a8.jpg

    Realistic but disappointing!

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
    2 minutes ago, AWD said:

    18z Hirlam;

    snowdepth_20190130_18_042.thumb.jpg.e02b80e5e68e232a0965b6460b8892a8.jpg

    I'm sure I'll have more than 2cm

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
    15 minutes ago, noggin said:

    Same here. Always checking the MetO site too! I am giving myself a nervous breakdown, but it's all so exciting! I really hope it won't be a damp squib! ?

    I do enjoy the chase of it all its pretty exciting and gives me a buzz lol, like you say hope its not a damp squib, I need my 2019 snow fix.

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    1 minute ago, kumquat said:

    Realistic but disappointing!

    Compared to last run it is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL

    GFS 18z looks good to my untrained eye.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

    Latest surface analysis shows it deeper than the ICON for 21z at the moment. Developing hurricane force also 

    A_e_sfc_color.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    4 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

    I'm sure I'll have more than 2cm

    I know right, with all this heavy snow forecast, you'd expect more than those charts are showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
  • Weather Preferences: what's the bloody point when you live in Britain
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)

    Well, I can't see the point in looking at accumulation charts at this stage. It's going to snow and how much we all get will be apparent after the event! Enjoy everyone, these are the rare times we all crave! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    So one is a snow day with sledge at ready the other is a wintry shower... ?

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