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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


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1 minute ago, fromey said:

Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

Ever the skeptic I'm afraid. Shall be going to bed early tonight. Shattered from the last few days and need to be rested in time for whatever happens.. 

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Nice little walk with the hound.

Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

Guys good luck today -As they say one mans loss is another mans gain - well for once in the UK the south & SW are going to gobble up the Norths snow ? Someone in North Devon / Somerset / Wilt

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At this stage the Apps will give an indication of where the front will be in our area locally (and thats pretty much our entire region) the intricacies of ppn type and intensity will be a now cast scenario.

We always moan, question and interrogate our app symbols to the death whenever a potential snow event is looming (I’m the same). 

But at this close range all we need to do is watch the Radar for approach and longevity and then watch the window for how good (or bad) things are playing out IOBY ? 

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22 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Not sure I haven't checked the mobile app hopefully the mobile app is in front! ?

LMAO never mind I forgot I cleared my cache and history and reset the router earlier and it reset the met office site back to default (London)  Yate is still looking good lol

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Crackerjack still on the floor receiving mouth to mouth. Come on Zephyr I’m stressed enough with this event dont do that to me again ?❄️❄️❄️

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3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Ever the skeptic I'm afraid. Shall be going to bed early tonight. Shattered from the last few days and need to be rested in time for whatever happens.. 

Best way to be, although I have rearranged my Tesco delivery to between10-11 just in case!! 

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8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

At this stage the Apps will give an indication of where the front will be in our area locally (and thats pretty much our entire region) the intricacies of ppn type and intensity will be a now cast scenario.

We always moan, question and interrogate our app symbols to the death whenever a potential snow event is looming (I’m the same). 

But at this close range all we need to do is watch the Radar for approach and longevity and then watch the window for how good (or bad) things are playing out IOBY ? 

This is a sane post. Frankly, i wish those app symbols disappeared. People fixate on oh no my snow symbol has turned sleet

It's just some computer auto churning them out. Let's just enjoy it, no matter what happens

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37 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Looks pretty pants here too be honest no snow until 8PM and then only light snow, was showing heavy snow earlier deffo a downgrade but any snow is better than none. Hopefully get an 18z upgrade.

Screenshot_10.thumb.png.6a698bccf411e3d2a3ec21ce1e01f3e2.png

You scared me then, glad that's only for London. ?

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45 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Not sure I haven't checked the mobile app hopefully the mobile app is in front! ?

LMAO never mind I forgot I cleared my cache and history and reset the router earlier and it reset the met office site back to default (London)  Yate is still looking good lol

Screenshot_11.thumb.png.acc0a73f485c7fd7b16c94d47c81f242.png

Don't do that......I nearly had a nervous breakdown! ??

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55 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Really interesting to see the Met Office graphics displaying snow even over the Channel which is more optimistic than the publicly visible models - Euro4 closest.

Considering the frontal position looks no further south, I figure evaporative cooling must be the defining factor. Models have shortfalls there, some more than others. I remember how much GFS has been laughed at over that in the past - but that was last relevant here way back in 2013; successful events since then have been entirely surface cold driven.

So tomorrows a different mechanism for widespread snowfall to what we’ve become usd to dealing with, at least locally to me. Makes it harder to construct personal anticipation as to what tomorrow will bring, but seeing the snow line out over the sea in this graphics has made me the most optimistic I’ve been since the event came into view. I’m about 20 miles inland.

Yes James I watched the in depth met office video about tomorrow and was also pleasantly surprised to the my corner of Dorset at the epicenter of things with snow forming over the channel and repeatedly moving up over me.

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18z Icon puts my area in the 1-5cm zone similar to Fergie's earlier forecast. Would be hoping for a bit more, to be honest

AWD did warn earlier, also about a possible split front. (Was that the Icon 12Z? can't remember).

It's all a nowcast anyway but at least we're in the centre of the game.

This is accumulative snow totals out to 40hrs

iconeu_uk1-45-40-0.png

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4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

18z Icon puts my area in the 1-5cm zone similar to Fergie's earlier forecast. Would be hoping for a bit more, to be honest

AWD did warn earlier, also about a possible split front. (Was that the Icon 12Z? can't remember).

It's all a nowcast anyway but at least we're in the centre of the game.

This is accumulative snow totals out to 40hrs

iconeu_uk1-45-40-0.png

Jay will be happy with that! ? I'll probs wait up for the 18z EURO4 tonight and then end up sleeping I haven't had much sleep past week or so waiting up for the 00z's most nights ? then up again for the 06z's. Tomorrow is finally crunch time.

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4 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

 

That’s a great post/twitter extract from Ian.

Just highlights how, in a complex winter synoptic regime Det/Op runs are not to be take to literally.

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Latest ICON gives over 5 hours of ppn of which 2 are of wintery stuff in my location obviously. More interest for central southerners the 18z run suggested the front would reactivate on Friday giving more snow. 

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7 minutes ago, kumquat said:

18z Icon puts my area in the 1-5cm zone similar to Fergie's earlier forecast. Would be hoping for a bit more, to be honest

AWD did warn earlier, also about a possible split front. (Was that the Icon 12Z? can't remember).

It's all a nowcast anyway but at least we're in the centre of the game.

This is accumulative snow totals out to 40hrs

iconeu_uk1-45-40-0.png

That was the 12z EURO4 model, which conincedentally, Ian highlighted in his Points West forecast earlier.

Still, we are all in a good position tomorrow, and we have every chance of seeing a covering of snow.

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