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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


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Nice little walk with the hound.

Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

Guys good luck today -As they say one mans loss is another mans gain - well for once in the UK the south & SW are going to gobble up the Norths snow ? Someone in North Devon / Somerset / Wilt

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A noticeable shift South on the NetWx model too, but still not good enough when taking it at face value. I suspect the BBC and Met Office are seeing this shifts on their models.

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13 minutes ago, TomW said:

no snow here right in that little snow free gap!

I find that strange to be honest.

Surely that gap wouldnt exist? Winds are not off the channel ect?? Shows half the mendips snow free too.

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1 minute ago, Nights King said:

I find that strange to be honest.

Surely that gap wouldnt exist? Winds are not off the channel ect?? Shows half the mendips snow free too.

Snow depth charts are a bit of a waste of time anyway better looking at the conditions on the day as there are always last minute surprises! 

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Just now, TomW said:

Snow depth charts are a bit of a waste of time anyway better looking at the conditions on the day as there are always last minute surprises! 

True but those maps were pretty accurate for today's event. ?

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Considering trying to take Friday off as keen on seeing and taking little one out for some snow fun, I’m over in Weston so limited possibility, I’m near Hutton so got some hills very close by, Canada Combe area is about 150m and that’s just a few minutes away. 

I know when it started snowing here in 2018, it was patchy down here at 14m asl but up at 150m it was pretty good.

the next place is Burrington Combe which is 8 miles away, easy to get to, and once trekked up to the peak nets us 300m... anything marginal here in Weston should be good at burrington surely? How marginal is this thurs / fri event going to be this far west?

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12 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Met Office hourly forecast out at midnight, so tired but I  want to see it!

It’s the same for me except I have one more sleet icon on Thursday  ?

oh and now Friday shows sleet at 6pm Friday

Edited by CheesepuffScott
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1 hour ago, Richard Fisher said:

Based on this forecast 2-8cm Bristol Northwards and as you say 1-3cm Somerset.  Still all to play for my max prediction is 20cm somewhere in South East Wales.

9E3788E2-D754-4F7E-9B57-02B96D43A023.jpeg

Maybe he got the numbers mixed up like he usually does with his words! ?

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Good couple hours of snow here on and off. Roads pavements and grass all covered. A real bonus being where the showers are based. I'd imagine this will be it compared to Thursday which is so close to being on here. Alas though we are 70 mile odd to south. Nevermind.

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0z runs bring some more southern members of our region into play, re snowfall Thursday.

0z ICON brings snow to many away from Cornwall & extreme southern coastal towns;

iconeu_uk1-42-41-0.thumb.png.7aeee0623798cce8bb3cb889da754083.png

iconeu_uk1-42-45-0.thumb.png.4eceb746a887c845597109b44b989f89.png

0z HIRLAM very similar, consistent with it's evening output from yesterday;

hirlamuk-42-41-0.thumb.png.40cc22db2baee06118aede2a191cdc88.png

hirlamuk-42-45-0.thumb.png.cf5f50f82761d86a792cc639db9062cd.png 

0z ARPEGE not quite as good for the southern contingent unfortunately, with rain turning to snow somewhere around the Mendips, North Somerset area;

arpegeuk-42-41-0.thumb.png.c19ca3361867d9e95fae32a9d04b6ca4.png

arpegeuk-42-43-0.thumb.png.df39f49ffcf23b1153f7ba2b1764d6c9.png

0z AROME, the high res French model, as rain turning to snow from the A303 northwards;

aromehd-42-40-0.thumb.png.0a79a69fb8180adf08ae95fee206b2a6.png

This model forecast yesterdays mess quite well too.

So we are looking very good for many of us to see falling snow on Thursday.  How much accumulates is another matter, I have noticed trend to weaken the front a tad with these southerly corrections.

Edited by AWD
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Things really seem to be firming up for widespread snowfall for our region Thurs into Friday. With the precipitation making it less far north with nearly every run, I would say the sweet spots, as it stands, to be the sw moors, the northern half of our region and south Wales. Plenty to be happy about.

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13 minutes ago, divadee said:

Apparently it should be snowing now....... It's not. Temp of 0.8 and DP of -0.5 

Screenshot_20190130-061555_Met Office.jpg

Nothing to get excited about as the cold air just isn't cold enough for us down here. Sat in an office in Bmth having driven in with the temperatures down to -1.8°C and it's raining, yes it's raining. SW incursions really do not bring much else but rain here unless the cold air has been around for a while. As for tomorrow, have to say at the moment I'm sticking with @Mapantz WXSIM prediction (below). Look at the wind direction off the channel, that will kill most things with no entrenched cold air present..

image.png.e189f650dc159ee993ed7819fe404028.png

Edited by Dorsetbred
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