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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


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Here goes then. Part 2 of today is starting. The front is through now the heavy wintery showers following on behind. This is this areas best chance of falling let alone lying snow. First shower is in and it's a sleet and hail number. 

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Nice little walk with the hound.

Beautiful looking up towards Peek Tor on Dartmoor this morning ❄❄❄

Guys good luck today -As they say one mans loss is another mans gain - well for once in the UK the south & SW are going to gobble up the Norths snow ? Someone in North Devon / Somerset / Wilt

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Just checking the Arpege which looked great earlier.... ....has shunted everything north, not what we want to see!

Seems to be a trend this evening in the models (moving things north) but hopefully will trend back south in the morning!!

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Looks like the fun is over now - heaviest precipitation has passed... Left a covering on the roof opposite and on the grass... So close, and to be honest better than some winters I can recall... Fingers crosses for overnight and Thursday now!

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The band of heavy ppn is creeping inexorably towards me but the temp has remained steady at 4.5C for at least an hour. Got a bad feeling about this one.

 

I really don't know why I do this myself year after year.

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wet snow here now, started as rain, moved to sleet and now proper snow with nice big flakes....little chance of settling, far to wet and not enough to come

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4 minutes ago, katemart said:

The band of heavy ppn is creeping inexorably towards me but the temp has remained steady at 4.5C for at least an hour. Got a bad feeling about this one.

 

I really don't know why I do this myself year after year.

Yes temperature is steady as is the dp at around 1C, the hope is that it drops rapidly once the main bulk of the front arrives. I'm not expecting much but would be nice just to see some snow falling and perhaps a light dusting!

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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Could people put locations please or snow reports are meaningless 

This is the Southwest and central Southern England thread, so that should give it away?

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Looking at the 12z output that has come out so far, there is mixed scenarios for our region, although as rule of thumb, if you live Bristol - Bath - Trowbridge northwards and/or eastwards, you are well supported for seeing some snowfall.

12z Arpege has rain turning to snow roughly over north Somerset;

arpegeuk-42-53-0.thumb.png.82cafb834f0d0407967ed805a02d658c.png

arpegeuk-42-54-0.thumb.png.ffead1c9d70ea5258b6337e1c6e3f90c.png

The 12z ICON has the snowline a little further south, over southern Somerset roughly;

iconeu_uk1-42-52-0.thumb.png.22e9db8d532aa0100b638bf9246c03b5.png

And the high res 12z HIRLAM, only goes out to 48hrs, but it's T48 chart looks rather promising for our region with Devon seeing rain turning to snow;

hirlamuk-42-48-0.thumb.png.0a96b10b354f6047553f70795931e148.png

The HIRLAM model is a high res model, designed for more micro detailed analysis like this.  It has also had some degree of success with previous micro weather events so a good model to have on our side.

The less said about the 12z GFS the better -

Worth noting however, IF we do get some snowfall, it will be of the wet kind.  Along with the expected marginality, any accumulative snowfall any lucky soul should get won't hang around for long.

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18 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

NetWx not interested in Thursday

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The position of the front is still undecided, watching the met live feed earlier the high res models had snow from a range of Dorset up to Yorkshire!

ECM was further north, UKMO further south, MOGREPS had highest risk south Wales/M4 corridor.

If the front ends up pushing further north, then the south of the M4 could see rain, if it ends up struggling to move north then south of the M4 will see snow as well.

My sweet spot would be between Yate and Hereford.

Here is the MOGREPS for Thurs-Fri. Yellows represent 20-40% chance of settling snow (1cm) Oranges and reds more chance. You can see the geographical range of the yellows from Somerset to Yorkshire.

mogreps.thumb.JPG.e89f3105c3355e191f96ae809a5870df.JPG

Still a way out though, and lots to be decided.

Wouldn't surprise me if the front ended up much further south, with the snow risk following.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Which Uni? Could people put locations please or snow reports are meaningless 

I'm in my living room having just relocated from the poop room if that helps?

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Just now, Mapantz said:

This is the Southwest and central Southern England thread, so that should give it away?

It’s a big area though to be fair ! The thread will be much easier to follow and of more benefit if we know where people are talking about, otherwise it’s just pages of “snow here” “rain here “ etc. years ago you could see people’s location under them posts which helped, not sure why that was removed? Perhaps storage / data saving?

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

It’s a big area though to be fair ! The thread will be much easier to follow and of more benefit if we know where people are talking about, otherwise it’s just pages of “snow here” “rain here “ etc. years ago you could see people’s location under them posts which helped, not sure why that was removed? Perhaps storage / data saving?

You still can unless you're on mobile?

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Just now, beerandkebab said:

I'm in my living room having just relocated from the poop room if that helps?

Raining heavily at Lat: 50.687817  Lon: -2.110981

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Just now, CheesepuffScott said:

You still can unless you're on mobile?

Ah ok, didn’t realise that. I expect most people are  on mobiles or tablets though. Only real hard core model watchers have their laptop out constantly lol

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a big area though to be fair ! The thread will be much easier to follow and of more benefit if we know where people are talking about, otherwise it’s just pages of “snow here” “rain here “ etc. years ago you could see people’s location under them posts which helped, not sure why that was removed? Perhaps storage / data saving?

If this was the general chat thread I would agree, but it's not.

PS: If you're on a mobile or tablet device in portrait mode, turn you device around to landscape mode, it'll show you locations.

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