South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

[noggin]

1 minute ago, Zephyr said:

Jay will be happy with that!  I'll probs wait up for the 18z EURO4 tonight and then end up sleeping I haven't had much sleep past week or so waiting up for the 00z's most nights  then up again for the 06z's. Tomorrow is finally crunch time.

Same here. Always checking the MetO site too! I am giving myself a nervous breakdown, but it's all so exciting! I really hope it won't be a damp squib!

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

That was the 12z EURO4 model, which conincedentally, Ian highlighted in his Points West forecast earlier.

Still, we are all in a good position tomorrow, and we have every chance of seeing a covering of snow.

Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? 

[Leon1]

6 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Has there been a HIRLAM update does anybody know? Wasn't that the best performing model last March?

It's on Gavsweathervids and it looks very good for our areas around Bristol and Bath!

 

Skip to about 12 minutes and 15 seconds for HIRLAM

I couldn't sleep last night and found myself waking up at 4am checking the weather for tomorrow and had countless dreams of it showing rain! I hope it's not any worse tonight...

Edited January 30, 2019 by Leon1

[MidnightSnow]

Just now, Leon1 said:

It's on Gavsweathervids and it looks very good for our areas around Bristol and Bath!

 

Skip to about 12 minutes and 15 seconds for HIRLAM

Nice one, cheers mate.

[kumquat]

Hirlam accumulation charts (12z) out to 48 hrs - can't see 18z is out yet?

Edit: I'd go with that lol

Edited January 30, 2019 by kumquat

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? 

Bristol snow shield being put through its paces ready for tomorrow!

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Nice one, cheers mate.

Sounds not working for me. What's he saying?

[MidnightSnow]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Sounds not working for me. What's he saying?

I only skipped to the HIRLAM animation.. looked good.

[AWD]

Just now, Nights King said:

Why the gap forming in Bristol Somerset..? 

As the front hits the SW and heads inland, it starts to weaken and split.  One portion of PPN heads into South Wales and stalls, the other heads along the South Coast through Dorset and Hampshire.  Areas inbetween still see snowfall, just more light in nature.

Worth noting, not all models show this scenario, the 12z Hirlam didn't, producing a rather palatable snowfall for Somerset and the Bristol area.

Just shows the volatility of the situation still.  I've just got this nagging feeling the EURO4 might be on the right track here, just my personal opinion of course.

Still, plenty of interest at least.  Some of us are going to wake up to a good snowfall on Friday morning, just not sure which county yet.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, AWD said:

As the front hits the SW and heads inland, it starts to weaken and split.  One portion of PPN heads into South Wales and stalls, the other heads along the South Coast through Dorset and Hampshire.  Areas inbetween still see snowfall, just more light in nature.

Worth noting, not all models show this scenario, the 12z Hirlam didn't, producing a rather palatable snowfall for Somerset and the Bristol area.

Just shows the volatility of the situation still.  I've just got this nagging feeling the EURO4 might be on the right track here, just my personal opinion of course.

Still, plenty of interest at least.  Some of us are going to wake up to a good snowfall on Friday morning, just not sure which county yet.

How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

7cm - 12cm

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, AWD said:

7cm - 12cm

Thanks, glad I don't live near the coast probably have nothing lol.

I think Bristol will do well too.

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

How much do you think for North Cardiff area about 100m absl?

[AWD]

18z Hirlam;

[Dorsetbred]

Great night for some astronomy, the sky is crystal clear, no haziness. Perfect viewing conditions..

[kumquat]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

18z Hirlam;

Realistic but disappointing!

[CheesepuffScott]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

18z Hirlam;

I'm sure I'll have more than 2cm

[Zephyr]

15 minutes ago, noggin said:

Same here. Always checking the MetO site too! I am giving myself a nervous breakdown, but it's all so exciting! I really hope it won't be a damp squib!

I do enjoy the chase of it all its pretty exciting and gives me a buzz lol, like you say hope its not a damp squib, I need my 2019 snow fix.

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, kumquat said:

Realistic but disappointing!

Compared to last run it is.

[Blizzardof82]

GFS 18z looks good to my untrained eye.

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

14 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Hirlam accumulation charts (12z) out to 48 hrs - can't see 18z is out yet?

Edit: I'd go with that lol

Nothing on the iow

[Zephyr]

Latest surface analysis shows it deeper than the ICON for 21z at the moment. Developing hurricane force also 

[Leon1]

4 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

I'm sure I'll have more than 2cm

I know right, with all this heavy snow forecast, you'd expect more than those charts are showing.

[Fred Sykes]

Well, I can't see the point in looking at accumulation charts at this stage. It's going to snow and how much we all get will be apparent after the event! Enjoy everyone, these are the rare times we all crave! 

[Nights King]

So one is a snow day with sledge at ready the other is a wintry shower...