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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

If the temps keep rising like this I’m half tempted to get the BBQ out!! 

78CE598F-7832-428B-862F-AB3151CCCFA0.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
3 minutes ago, fromey said:

If the temps keep rising like this I’m half tempted to get the BBQ out!! 

78CE598F-7832-428B-862F-AB3151CCCFA0.jpeg

Not much better here... 3.6c

ppn will arrive in warmest part of the day. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The low to the S is nearer to England than the 00z runs had it and some of the 06z runs have adjusted accordingly.

Sadly this still mostly benefits the SE more than us, but those in the east of our region might yet see something after all as the timing has been delayed to an hour or so further past sunset, and the slower movement allows cold air with subzero dew points to out west to undercut more.


Still a big struggle pinning down Thu-Fri details. GFS 06z adjusted back south again but is still north of most of the high-res models due to a more rounded low. Hopefully that's a shortfall of the GFS model resolution at play. FV3 (GFS-P) is a bit more elongated but not as much as the high-res models. ECM 00z split the difference between those.


ARPEGE 06z has thrown one heck of a curve-ball, not sure what to think probability-wise! Leads to a nice waving front development early Friday.

arpegeeur-0-72.png arpege-1-70-0.png?29-11

 

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Not much better here... 3.6c

ppn will arrive in warmest part of the day. 

and now the sun is trying to break through!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire

The Euro4 06Z does delay progress a bit, so the heavist precip moves through the east of our region that bit later and after dark.

We'll bomb out in the valley, as usual but it does take quiet a while to move through, so who knows...

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
14 minutes ago, fromey said:

If the temps keep rising like this I’m half tempted to get the BBQ out!! 

78CE598F-7832-428B-862F-AB3151CCCFA0.jpeg

Sounds a good idea, tropical 6.7°C here. 

8CC745A9-9FD5-4823-8FD7-59AAF5016F95.gif

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
6 minutes ago, jtay said:

The Euro4 06Z does delay progress a bit, so the heavist precip moves through the east of our region that bit later and after dark.

We'll bomb out in the valley, as usual but it does take quiet a while to move through, so who knows...

 

image.png

Yes this type of event is about the most difficult for us to get anything from due to the reliance on evaporative cooling (which has further to go) unless the elusive undercut of cold air can happen soon enough for snow to actually have a chance to settle.

Remember that similar event in Dec 2017 when just 5 m or so extra elevation meant that you saw quite a bit more falling snow than I did? I wonder if it might be the same again today!

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

A warm 7oC in Bournemouth! There is reports that the downwelling is about to hit so you never know about February! Also I have been told to keep an eye on the met office long range wording as it could be about to change but he wouldn't give details.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

A warm 7oC in Bournemouth! There is reports that the downwelling is about to hit so you never know about February! Also I have been told to keep an eye on the met office long range wording as it could be about to change but he wouldn't give details.

Just a hunch but I think long ranger will go average to mild soon. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Weather app suggesting its snowing in Princetown. It's not it's raining.

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

"Rain and snow is expected to move in from the southwest, moving across England and Wales through Thursday into Friday. This is likely to fall as heavy rain at first across the far southwest of England, but as it meets the cold air established over the rest of the country snow becomes more likely. There is a chance of 2-5cm of snow for some places, timings are currently uncertain. 10cm is possible in places, though there is uncertainty at this stage on where is most likely to see the greater snowfall accumulations. Overnight Thursday into early Friday ice may also become a hazard on any untreated surfaces as temperatures fall below freezing."

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Yes this type of event is about the most difficult for us to get anything from due to the reliance on evaporative cooling (which has further to go) unless the elusive undercut of cold air can happen soon enough for snow to actually have a chance to settle.

Remember that similar event in Dec 2017 when just 5 m or so extra elevation meant that you saw quite a bit more falling snow than I did? I wonder if it might be the same again today!

@CheesepuffScott is up the top of Lode Hill in Redlynch, so he's better placed than both of us if the stars do align.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
8 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Just a hunch but I think long ranger will go average to mild soon. 

I was thinking along the same lines this morning but now being told to expect the downwelling to actually hit I'm not so sure. I have a feeling this might not be over yet and if so should show in the models pretty quickly. As always time will tell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

look at the impact matrix graphic, same as the one for the south-east, the tick is bottom, next to unlikely.. shows the high amount of uncertainty

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Well this weather front was meant to be with me over 2 hours ago on the met app but is still a way off yet so just hope this delay is good news.

Slower the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

5.5°C here...

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

It's time to bin those 'app' graphics - going to be lead down the garden path, by looking at them

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

I put it this up as a reference, the video is from the met office Facebook page it is from yesterday, I will wait for today’s to come out to compare 

3BEC0B09-2422-443D-BEE3-E9BD7A3C976D.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, stormy
  • Location: Warminster
26 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

look at the impact matrix graphic, same as the one for the south-east, the tick is bottom, next to unlikely.. shows the high amount of uncertainty

It should always be remembered that the likelihood is for the disruption caused by the weather, not the likelihood it will snow.

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
3 minutes ago, suxer said:

Latest Met office video showing a fair few decent snow showers overnight and tomorrow morning for SW.

Something like this

7DFF1B11-39FA-401E-9AD1-E68AFECC6499.jpeg

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