South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

[CheesepuffScott]

Sunny spells and windy. 6.9°C

[Wilxy]

9 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Still time to change but at the moment northern and eastern areas of our region are most likely to be affected. Some of us may well be getting some surprises come Wednesday morning. The yellow weather warning will probably be extended west closer to the time and I wouldn't be too surprise if they put an amber warning somewhere...

You should be fine where you are but its very borderline where I live as it stands back edge snow the most likely outcome with no settling snow, elevation is going to make all the difference at this stage 

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Rain for the IoW as usual then

[karlos1983]

3 hours ago, Nights King said:

I remain un convinced Karlos it looks like a cold wet week with plenty of disappointment. Tuesdays looks like sleet briefly turning to non settling snow as it clears. Then rest of week we on wrong side of marginal mostly?

As Richard would say... it’s the hope that kills me  

[matt111]

Plenty of sun so far today but a bit cloudier now but still quite a few sunny spells. Feels much colder in the wind. 7.6°C

[CheesepuffScott]

It reached 6.9°C at around 13:30 now it's 6.4°C

[karlos1983]

@AWD did you input the ICON data? Looks perfect. System headed south

Edited January 27, 2019 by karlos1983

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

@AWD did you input the ICON data? Looks perfect. System headed south

Is that good for us mate?

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

@AWD did you input the ICON data? Looks perfect. System headed south

Just seen that.  Lol.  I'm waiting for the high res version to update before I comment too much.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Waiting for Tuesday. Yellow warning of SNOW has been issued. For the South West.

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just seen that.  Lol.  I'm waiting for the high res version to update before I comment too much.

It’s a blink and you’ll miss it affair according to the ICON hi-res

[AWD]

12z ICON - 

Positive = Less rain for areas away from Cornwall & the South Coast.  Areas around M4 corridor into Wiltshire and Oxfordshire could see largely all snow.

Negative = Weaker band of PPN.  Mainly light rain/snow with the odd moderate burst.  Won't amount to anything significant, especially to lower levels.  

Edited January 27, 2019 by AWD

[CheesepuffScott]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s a blink and you’ll miss it affair according to the ICON hi-res

Sadly

[Mapantz]

06Z

12Z

Negligible to be fair. 

[CheesepuffScott]

And Thursday's event just rain on this chart

[Zephyr]

 

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Zephyr

[MidnightSnow]

ARPEGE gives us a lifeline for Thurs/Fri. Hopefully the trend South continues.

Edited January 27, 2019 by MidnightSnow

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

ARPEGE gives us a lifeline for Thurs/Fri. Hopefully the trend South continues.

That chart makes it look better than what it actually is:

Anyway, still uncertainty regarding Tuesday re snowfall without looking towards the end of the week too much yet.

It does seem to be trending towards a rather meh and insignificant event for our region now though.

[CheesepuffScott]

3.8°C and clear

[Dorsetbred]

Currently Temp: 4.6 °C & Dew Point: -1.2 °C

[AWD]

12z NMM showing a brief period of heavy snow for many parts of the West Country during Tuesday evening;

You can see how close and marginal it is though here;

Anyway, 12z output firming up on a west - east front traversing the northern periphery of the low, which ends up heading into France.  Therefore, our region only has a brief window of opportunity for snowfall as this narrow band of PPN traverses the region sometime during Tuesday evening.

The further north and east you are in the region, the less rain and more snow you could see.  The opposite for those further south and west.

Unlikely to be much in the way of accumulating snowfall due to lack of PPN really.  The front will be through any one particular area within a couple of hours.  Some upland areas of our region may get a couple of cm's, as well as more areas of Oxfordshire,  Wiltshire, Cotswolds, Berkshire etc.  Lower levels further west like Somerset, Bristol, Bath, Dorset etc will be lucky to see much in the way of settling snow at all as it will be that bit more of a "wintry mess".

Edited January 27, 2019 by AWD
Grammar

[alex12]

Good evening! 

Been following this thread for a while. Are the SW expected to see anything snow wise on Tuesday now or have the SE taken it all? ? 

[Leon1]

I'm liking that the MetO precipitation charts are bringing the frontal band in a few hours later as that will bring more people further west a chance of snow as it would've had a chance to cool down first.  

[MidnightSnow]

26 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

I'm liking that the MetO precipitation charts are bringing the frontal band in a few hours later as that will bring more people further west a chance of snow as it would've had a chance to cool down first.  

Euro4 backs this up too. Someone just posted the chart in the MOD thread.

Finally a little bit of luck.

[Leon1]

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Euro4 backs this up too. Someone just posted the chart in the MOD thread.

Finally a little bit of luck.

We probably want the front to start arriving at about 18:00 so it's cold enough and then we will get a good 2-3 hours of snow maybe? 

Also this is a good read...
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/another-winter-storm-to-bring-widespread-rain-snow-to-western-europe/70007263

Edited January 27, 2019 by Leon1