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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

AHH! I'm outside the warning by about 1.5 miles!!! Tweaks will probably be made though as I'm still being forecast heavy snow...

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

Out of interest, who said this was going to be a classic channel low? I thought it was always progged to be a marginal high risk / high reward event?

I think we're in a pretty good position with many just outside the yellow warning. It will keep changing, hopefully for better not worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
27 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

My view, on Tuesday/Wednesday hasnt changed. Not enough entrenched cold in situ before the front arrives on Tues to give decent snow for our neck of woods. And it is not a classic channel low either imho.

These marginal events can be high risk high reward! There will be cold undercutting. Large areas of our region still very much in with a decent shout at a snow event. 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Drier brighter cooler day here with some lovely sunny spells this morning a tad on the breezy side though. 5.9C, 71%RH, Dew P 1.0C, 997.7mb Rapidly Rising.

Risk of snow has vanished overnight here with just some rain likely for Tuesday now, perhaps a chance of some back edge wintry weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I think we need to forget about the channel low scenario now.  That looks likely to head into France along with the core of the PPN.

What would be good on the 12z, for our region, is a further shift south of the low, shifting the whole pattern further south.

This would mean less influx of oceanic air into our region, bringing the prospect of more snow and less rain to inland members.  The idea of mainly snow over the Midlands, Cotswolds etc would move over inland counties of our region, IF the pattern moved south.

Still all to play for, especially the further north and east you are in the region, just hope rather than expect for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Location: Poole
11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

These marginal events can be high risk high reward! There will be cold undercutting. Large areas of our region still very much in with a decent shout at a snow event. 

Let's hope so. Better than sitting on the beach watching our PPN in the channel lol

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

These marginal events can be high risk high reward! There will be cold undercutting. Large areas of our region still very much in with a decent shout at a snow event. 

I remain un convinced Karlos it looks like a cold wet week with plenty of disappointment. Tuesdays looks like sleet briefly turning to non settling snow as it clears. Then rest of week we on wrong side of marginal mostly?

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Just now, AWD said:

I think we need to forget about the channel low scenario now.  That looks likely to head into France along with the core of the PPN.

What would be good on the 12z, for our region, is a further shift south of the low, shifting the whole pattern further south.

This would mean less influx of oceanic air into our region, bringing the prospect of more snow and less rain to inland members.  The idea of mainly snow over the Midlands, Cotswolds etc would move over inland counties of our region, IF the pattern moved south.

Still all to play for, especially the further north and east you are in the region, just hope rather than expect for now.

Hopefully plenty of opportunities still to come this winter! 

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

They must be 80% certain as they didn't even mention any uncertainty in the track of the snow in their warning description.

Look at the impact matrix part of the warning, the tick is down the bottom, the unlikely part of the scale.

But with 1 to 3 cm of snow, especially for that London area, they already know what chaos, it can cause, which is why i think they have gone with yellow warning, but only just... at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I remain un convinced Karlos it looks like a cold wet week with plenty of disappointment. Tuesdays looks like sleet briefly turning to non settling snow as it clears. Then rest of week we on wrong side of marginal mostly?

I agree with Mulls, its just not going to be this year 

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Posted
  • Location: North Devon
  • Location: North Devon

Pretty obvious that North Devon is sitting well outside of the excitement at the moment. Would someone mind letting me know in these scenarios what it would take for us to be in with a shout of some snow? Apart from a seismic shift to the east and north of course!

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
2 minutes ago, Ydoj said:

Pretty obvious that North Devon is sitting well outside of the excitement at the moment. Would someone mind letting me know in these scenarios what it would take for us to be in with a shout of some snow? Apart from a seismic shift to the east and north of course!

See AWD''s post above.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

If the far SW wants to be in with a chance of snowfall the low needs to go south along with the pattern or it's best to say that Cornwall Devon and other areas of the south west will not be getting any action besides cold rain 

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Posted
  • Location: North Devon
  • Location: North Devon
17 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

If the far SW wants to be in with a chance of snowfall the low needs to go south along with the pattern or it's best to say that Cornwall Devon and other areas of the south west will not be getting any action besides cold rain 

Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
50 minutes ago, TomW said:

Best to avoid the mad thread its turned into the SE thread!

"Winter is over" posts creeping back in again. It will probably be back on again tomorrow, then off again on Tuesday. 

Weather aside, it's pretty entertaining to read. Don't envy the mods though... pretty sure that thread wont last very long unfortunately. You're lucky to find one page without any bickering.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Just now, MidnightSnow said:

"Winter is over" posts creeping back in again. It will probably be back on again tomorrow, then off again on Tuesday. 

Weather aside, it's pretty entertaining to read. Don't envy the mods though... pretty sure that thread wont last very long unfortunately. You're lucky to find one page without any bickering.

People saying winter is over on the 27th January is laughable its like people forget what can happen even in March! Plenty of time left yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
13 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

"Winter is over" posts creeping back in again. It will probably be back on again tomorrow, then off again on Tuesday. 

Weather aside, it's pretty entertaining to read. Don't envy the mods though... pretty sure that thread wont last very long unfortunately. You're lucky to find one page without any bickering.

Maybe this is the answer...

image.thumb.png.f36aa0563c1523a198def033c6a8c58a.png

OR the thread should be fitted with this

image.thumb.png.388627805a070055191ac3baf6710e75.png

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

For those who haven't seen the latest extended range MetO update:

 

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

Updated: 00:34 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT"




 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

For those who haven't seen the latest extended range MetO update:

 

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2019 to Monday 25 Feb 2019:

Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

Updated: 00:34 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT"




 

The important sentence is highlighted...and exactness (pardon my english) is really the status of the winter until now, don't you think?

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

The important sentence is highlighted...and exactness (pardon my english) is really the status of the winter until now, don't you think?

No because 'exactness' is impossible at this range. They can only decipher the most likely outcome from all the data they receive.

"Cold or very cold conditions are likely" - That's what they're seeing as the most likely outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

Still time to change but at the moment northern and eastern areas of our region are most likely to be affected. Some of us may well be getting some surprises come Wednesday morning. The yellow weather warning will probably be extended west closer to the time and I wouldn't be too surprise if they put an amber warning somewhere...

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

I’m in the eastern part of the region but way too close to the coast for my liking. Whether that matters or not remains to be seen. 

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