South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

[CheesepuffScott]

And just for fun... Hampshire snow shield in action, even I'm only in the blue

But nonsense

Edited January 26, 2019 by CheesepuffScott

[Mapantz]

You can view the ICON-EU snow depth chart on another site which takes in to account a few other factors. It only shows a maximum snow depth of 11cm in Kent. I think folks are getting too carried away.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Mapantz

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

The mood in the MOD thread has darkened somewhat following the early evening euphoria of the latest ECM run after the latest GFS run, latest UKMO Fax and BBC weather forecast has Tuesday’s low heading south.

Lets wait until tomorrow before writing the channel lows obituary. Having said that I’m not feeling confident of seeing much from it come Tuesday.

[karlos1983]

This low won’t even have formed in 24 hours time, so don’t expect anything to firm up until at least Monday. 

I’d ignore the mod thread as it’s IMBY Central! We should have a better idea of the general track tomorrow afternoon maybe, I.e the cone of uncertainty will narrow a bit. Until then I’d put it to the back of your mind to avoid disappointment, the odds favour disappointment for now imo..

Edited January 26, 2019 by karlos1983

[Mapantz]

I'm ignoring it all by making a mobile lite version of my website while listening to some Chemical Brother's.

[Bristawl Si]

Copy of a post i made in the Mad thread earlier:

Tuesday is NOT a classic channel low imho. For a "classic", ideally, there needs to be entrenched cold over a few days before, a v cold continent, a v cold UK, with easterly or NE winds. And as the Low approaches it has nowhere to go but run along the Channel as the HP to its East/NE wont budge. A number of these factors are not present today or forecast to be, over next 2 days. To add weight to my view (by all means challenge me) forecast temps for Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris are between 4-6c. Not really cold. So any Easterly or SE from that Low wont really have a v cold source.

[CheesepuffScott]

6.9°C after being stuck at 7.3°C for the past 2 hours

[matt111]

Stuck at 8.4°C now. 

[CheesepuffScott]

Raining here.

[Zephyr]

FAX's have the low pretty far south, what a mess they are wouldn't like to be a forecaster at the moment.

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

FAX's have the low pretty far south, what a mess they are wouldn't like to be a forecaster at the moment.

No surprise Z. As per one of my earlier posts in Mad thread. Non-event Tuesday looms.

 

[Mapantz]

I've only just looked at the radar for the first time since about 5pm. I have no idea how I haven't had a shower with what's been running through much of our region.

[Don]

An interesting regional update from the Metoffice for Tuesday night into Wednesday......

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Becoming wet during Tuesday, with the potential for disruptive snow overnight into Wednesday. Further rain, perhaps preceded by snow, on Thursday. Overnight frost and ice is likely.

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Don

[CheesepuffScott]

Another heavy shower passing through now with gusty winds.

[stevofunnelcl]

yes, local south-west headline on met office website reads:

Potential for disruptive snow next week.

[kumquat]

3 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

No surprise Z. As per one of my earlier posts in Mad thread. Non-event Tuesday looms.

 

Good call but if the 528 dam line stays to the South of us, with uppers in place, could be heavy snow.

[Uncle Gargy]

The magic word for next week is 'Potential'. Anticipate snow, but don't fall for the trap of 'expecting' it.

Right now the rain seems to be turningto sleet and snow as per the radar.

Winds picked up as well.

[CheesepuffScott]

Good morning, woken up to the sound of the wind. It’s currently 3.8°C with some light rain but gusty winds

Edited January 27, 2019 by CheesepuffScott

[knocker]

Very windy gusting 50kts and heavy showers around

Edited January 27, 2019 by knocker

[AWD]

16 hours ago, AWD said:

We have 3 possible scenarios;

1)  The low runs into NW France along with the PPN and our region remains largely dry and chilly.

2)  The low deepens and runs along the Channel giving a modest snowfall for many areas of Southern England.

3)  The low deepens further and runs further north giving heavier snowfall for areas north of the A303 and a snow to rain event for areas south of the A303.

There are other possible options to like the low travels much further north and gives rain to our region or the low doesn't form at all but I don't see huge support for these evolutions currently.

As things stand, would give the percentage chance of each scenario:

1)  50%

2)  30%

3)  20%

This is before the majority of the 12z output is out.  I will update after the 12z output is out to demonstrate the volatility of this situation.

Quite a big leap by many 0z models towards scenario 1 this morning, with the caveat that a few do have a weak trailing front that moves west - east across the region giving a couple of hours of "not too heavy" snowfall, overnight Tues/Weds.

Based on the 0z runs, the updated percentage play for each scenario now stands at:

1)  65%

2)  20%

3)  15%

Will this chance over the next 24hrs, we will have to wait and see.....

For now though, based on the 0z runs, the chance of a significant snow event (or rain to snow event) has decreased quite markedly.  Not gone, not by a long shot, but I certainly wouldn't expect it for now. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by AWD
Spelling

[Andy Bown]

We were woken by some violent wind gusts at around 05.00 .

[Bazray]

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Becoming wet during Tuesday, with the potential for disruptive snow overnight into Wednesday. Further rain, perhaps preceded by snow, on Thursday. Overnight frost and ice is likely.

 

from the met, interesting 

[lettice]

Was 8.8c at midnight and a low of 4.7c at 7am.
Wind has picked up in last few hours 15-20mph, with many 25-33mph gusts.
Now 4.7c, 992.6 hPa, 0.6mm of rain showers since midnight. Now brightening up.

Edited January 27, 2019 by lettice

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, some early morning showers around, currently Temp: 4.7 °C & Dew Point: 1.0 °C. Some interesting thoughts as to the week and how it might pan out.

[karlos1983]

With the 528 Dam line straddling the south, cold uppers close by and plenty of moisture, the potential is definitely there imo. 

Take 4pm for example on the gfs

low to our south, 850’s -4/-5. Some possibly heavy ppn in light winds! I would say a high chance of evaporative cooling coming into play as a minimum.

So although a widespread snow event doesn’t look to likely right now, I think there is a high chance some will do well out of this. It’s a shame we didn’t have cold air in place. A classic channel low really is when we’ve had cold continental air in place and a channel low pushes up against any block. This is a different animal.