South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Same but I was just wondering if it's a win/win scenario. If it all sinks too far south into France, wouldn't that keep us in colder air for fronts pushing in Thursday/Friday. 

Obviously we'd prefer the 3rd option all day long!

Not really as it's not as simple as that.  It's a much deeper and rounder low that's being shown to hit our shores at the end of next week.

[AWD]

12z GFS leans more towards scenario 1 although not fully.

Main PPN stays across the channel but the model forecast a fair few showery bursts of PPN behind the low, bringing wintry showers across the region later on Tuesday.

No meaningful snow in the midweek period though.

Edited January 26, 2019 by AWD

[CheesepuffScott]

Wind and rain  picking up again as the front approaches. 8.2°C

[Mapantz]

Gusting to 37mph now. 

[matt111]

Wind really picked up in the last few minutes and it’s just started raining. 9.2°C

[Mapantz]

Just realised how fast the pressure is dropping.. 2hPa / hr

[CheesepuffScott]

Heavy rain here now and quite windy. Still 8.2°C

[jtay]

12 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Heavy rain here now and quite windy. Still 8.2°C

Might get a bit squally for us, if we clip the edge of what's coming up on the radar.

[Mapantz]

It's now the turn of the GFS-P to be the favourite model despite it being as bad as the standard GFS in the verification stats. lol

[CheesepuffScott]

57 minutes ago, jtay said:

Might get a bit squally for us, if we clip the edge of what's coming up on the radar.

I did notice things turned a bit more blustery but hadn't checked the radar! All quiet now.. except the wind. 8.1°C

[AWD]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

It's now the turn of the GFS-P to be the favourite model despite it being as bad as the standard GFS in the verification stats. lol

There is something about the GFSp I don't like.  It's PPN signal seems to be overly exaggerated to me.  It's regularly forecasting large amounts of rain/snow for various parts of the country that really are quite unlikely to verify.

Personally I don't use it.  I will need some factual evidence and previous experience before I use it to any degree.

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

There is something about the GFSp I don't like.  It's PPN signal seems to be overly exaggerated to me.  It's regularly forecasting large amounts of rain/snow for various parts of the country that really are quite unlikely to verify.

Personally I don't use it.  I will need some factual evidence and previous experience before I use it to any degree.

In a word "Agreed"

[CheesepuffScott]

ECM rolling... there'll either be tears or cheers in the model thread so I'll check back in half an hour. Ta.

[Skullzrulerz]

Looking forward to the rain feast come Tuesday/Wendesday I mean it just be my luuck 

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Gusting to 37mph now. 

Been outside all afternoon shifting the DAVIS station to a new position, whilst it rained, blew and tried it's best to dissuade me. Figure a 24ft pole just lurches around too much in the strong wind so had to back off to 18ft. Off course living in a built up area is always a compromise in getting the best results. Not seen 37mph but  have seen gusts @ 25mph so relatively Ok (ish). Time to move house methinks for better results..Maybe I should move to KARLOS country..

Edited January 26, 2019 by Dorsetbred

[Mapantz]

There was quite a downpour here during the final passage of that cold front. 35.6mm/hr. 6mm has fallen today.

[karlos1983]

ECM is.... interesting 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Been outside all afternoon shifting the DAVIS station to a new position, whilst it rained, blew and tried it's best to dissuade me. Figure a 24ft pole just lurches around too much in the strong wind so had to back off to 18ft. Off course living in a built up area is always a compromise in getting the best results. Not seen 37mph but  have seen gusts @ 25mph so relatively Ok (ish). Time to move house methinks for better results..

Is there no one who could lash it to the chimney? That's what I went for. I used a 12ft pole, 5 foot is above the chimney and 7 foot below. I get very little wobble in it. The battery is still going after 2 years as well.

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM is.... interesting 

Better track.  Heads more east, along the channel, rather than south east into France.  Keeps us on the cold side and in with a shout.

[Dorsetbred]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Is there no one who could lash it to the chimney? That's what I went for. I used a 12ft pole, 5 foot is above the chimney and 7 foot below. I get very little wobble in it. The battery is still going after 2 years as well.

Well, I was going to ask my son to do it for me, as my wife wont let me near a ladder after my last fall. Suggested it today and it was like "NAH", so for now I might just have to compromise. Do have a nice roof / wall where it could sit, but I'd have to get a remote transmitter for the anemometer as it will be too far from the base unit without it. Given it's a west facing wall I cant mount the whole davis unit there as there will be too much radiation heating. So for now until I can convince my wife to let my son up on the roof  I'll stick with 18ft pole.

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Better track.  Heads more east, along the channel, rather than south east into France.  Keeps us on the cold side and in with a shout.

A shout or a groan...what do you reckon?

[AWD]

Just now, Dorsetbred said:

A shout or a groan...what do you reckon?

Depends on your postcode.  

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Depends on your postcode.  

I'll take that as a shout for you and a groan for us down here on the coast.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Dorsetbred

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Well, I was going to ask my son to do it for me, as my wife wont let me near a ladder after my last fall. Suggested it today and it was like "NAH", so for now I might just have to compromise. Do have a nice roof / wall where it could sit, but I'd have to get a remote transmitter for the anemometer as it will be too far from the base unit without it. Given it's a west facing wall I cant mount the whole davis unit there as there will be too much radiation heating. So for now until I can convince my wife to let my son up on the roof  I'll stick with 18ft pole.

https://www.weathershop.co.uk/shop/davis-6332-vantage-pro2-anemometer-transmitter

That's a very good price!

I got mine for £170 through a German Davis dealer.

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

I'll take that as a shout for you and a groan for us down here on the coast.

Well, I didn't want to say it...............