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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards


Mapantz

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
17 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

If ECM gives the south a snow event tonight I won't be able to contain myself.

 

All I hope for is that we're still within a decent chance come Sunday/Monday. I'm not overly fussed about the ECM tonight because you know this is gonna chop and change every day. (Although I can't lie I will be buzzing too :olddb:)

Funny how there was talk a few days ago about how the SW is a "Boom or bust" region. Now we're looking at a possible channel low which could be the big one. :bomb:  Might have to log off for a solid week if that low goes into France. Doubt we'll get a better chance for significant snow all winter. PLEEEAASSSEEE

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
14 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

All I hope for is that we're still within a decent chance come Sunday/Monday. I'm not overly fussed about the ECM tonight because you know this is gonna chop and change every day. (Although I can't lie I will be buzzing too :olddb:)

Funny how there was talk a few days ago about how the SW is a "Boom or bust" region. Now we're looking at a possible channel low which could be the big one. :bomb:  Might have to log off for a solid week if that low goes into France. Doubt we'll get a better chance for significant snow all winter. PLEEEAASSSEEE

GET IN THERE!  ECM showing snow on Tuesday night, some person said it will be snow to rain but that will correct nearer the time.  

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

GET IN THERE!  ECM showing snow on Tuesday night, some person said it will be snow to rain but that will correct nearer the time.  


Already know that's koldweather lol.

Good stuff though, positive signs indeed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
7 minutes ago, Ulysses said:

where is a good place to find ecm precip charts?, struggling to find one:(

 

image.thumb.png.4dadb1f1e66c459cebca61bff00cd63d.png

https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/en-royaume+uni-ecmwf-94.htm

There you go @Ulysses , not sure if that is the 12z or 00z run my french is not too good.

Edited by Leon1
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

image.thumb.png.4dadb1f1e66c459cebca61bff00cd63d.png

https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/en-royaume+uni-ecmwf-94.htm

There you go @Ulysses , not sure if that is the 12z or 00z run my french is not too good.

Looks like the 00z to me

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Just now, matt111 said:

Looks like the 00z to me

Oh yeah I see it now

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Just now, Leon1 said:

Oh yeah I see it now

I wouldn’t mind it coming off though  

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

image.thumb.png.a7ce336102666e83bb87cf5b67fa9765.png

Well back to SWly's for the start of Feb on this run. But T240 so! 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
4 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

 

I think this will go the way of the pear for us sadly.

Nothing is going our way this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I think this will go the way of the pear for us sadly.

Nothing is going our way this winter.

Most likely  it's been a very poor winter here not even seen any sleet, I still have hope to see something that won't go until we see 20c or so 

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Got down to 6.3°C but now rising, back up to 6.9°C

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol

It's pretty mad that the track of the low could be anywhere between the English Channel and the Mediterranean at +96 hours. Would be good to know even just a ballpark percentage of each outcome 

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Posted
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset
  • Location: Westbury, Wilts and Lulworth, Dorset

After watching the Met Office video about this weather system saying more of the individual runs of the UKMO model having the system heading further south along with the latest ECM run sadly doesn’t fill with me with much confidence.

HOWEVER, Tuesday is along way off so this could and possibly will change.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
17 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Got down to 6.3°C but now rising, back up to 6.9°C

That's freezing...compared to here.

9.3°C here currently although it hasn't risen again since it started dropping. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
33 minutes ago, bathweatherwatcher said:

After watching the Met Office video about this weather system saying more of the individual runs of the UKMO model having the system heading further south along with the latest ECM run sadly doesn’t fill with me with much confidence.

HOWEVER, Tuesday is along way off so this could and possibly will change.

I think the ECM mean was better, the ECM OP was a huge outlier especially at the end of the run.

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
28 minutes ago, matt111 said:

That's freezing...compared to here.

9.3°C here currently although it hasn't risen again since it started dropping. 

Don't worry, I'll make up for it in the summer when you have to deal with the onshore breeze 

 

7.2°C

Edited by CheesepuffScott
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Don't worry, I'll make up for it in the summer when you have to deal with the onshore breeze 

 

7.2°C

TBH I preferred it when I lived away from the coast, saw more temperature extremes than I do here. 

Good example being last summer when it never reached 30°C here at all. No onshore breeze in the winter but then the warmer sea doesn't help.

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Oh and I'm catching up with you @CheesepuffScott. We'll meet in the middle soon.

8.8°C

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Just now, matt111 said:

Oh and I'm catching up with you @CheesepuffScott.We'll meet in the middle soon.

8.8°C

Yay! 

Now watch my temperature fall, or you start to rise again.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Grain of salt but sorry to the coast..

 image.thumb.png.57fc616e30100f606df9bfc6c3caf2e2.png

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