South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

[Leon1]

The possible snow for me on Monday night:

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2019 by Leon1

[jtay]

3 hours ago, nettie said:

Woke up to 1.3c this morning ( 6 ish)  now temp has dropped to 0c (07:15)  the moon looked beautiful with a pinkish colour to it . Hopefully get a glimpse of the blood moon tomorrow  morning.

I saw it at about 6:30 and it looked fantastic.  I tried to get some shots from the garden, but it needed the tripod really and I wasn't about to go scrambling around in the dark for it.

It looks like it's trying to brighten up here. Sat24 looks nice to the East, but I've got to start digging out a patio, so I can't be chasing Sunshine today.

Let's just hope it comes to us instead. 

[Mapantz]

A low of 2.3°C this morning. Currently 4.1°C with sunny spells.

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Nights King said:

Winter rolls on, any hope of snow Tuesday?

It looks a little wet to me but it is first chance maybe of this chilly spell?

There's always hope, especially for you living in them thar hills, (without wishing to be IMBY) I suspect down here on the sarf coast it may well be clear/translucent rather than white...

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, Nights King said:

Winter rolls on, any hope of snow Tuesday?

It looks a little wet to me but it is first chance maybe of this chilly spell?

Got a sneaky feeling we will do well with heavy showers from the NW on Tuesday.

[matt111]

Cloudy start after a low of 1.4°C. The skies cleared now though so sunny and cold at the moment. 3.2°C

Edited January 20, 2019 by matt111

[CheesepuffScott]

Sunny and dry. 5.2°C

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

2 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Got a sneaky feeling we will do well with heavy showers from the NW on Tuesday.

Think that’s probably our best chance of seeing any snow next week rather than from the front coming down from the North West. If only it was just that little bit colder we’d have been in the game. GFS still seems to think we are not that means much. No warnings not even for North of us from the Met so looking like a non event away from the hills.

[Nights King]

2 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Got a sneaky feeling we will do well with heavy showers from the NW on Tuesday.

Maybe better for hills of wilts/glouc but we tend to miss them due to welsh mountains from that direction.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

1 hour ago, Nights King said:

Maybe better for hills of wilts/glouc but we tend to miss them due to welsh mountains from that direction.

Oh yes, remember one very frustrating day of radar watching a band of pretty heavy and persistent snow coming down from the Northwest over Wales. It looked like it would soon arrive in our region only for it to stall over the Welsh mountains. Once Wales had rinsed it, it finally arrived after dark, just a few flakes!

Polar maritime air masses rarely deliver the goods here; only in exceptional circumstances.

[CheesepuffScott]

What a fine, sunny afternoon. It has now clouded over quite a bit, current temp 3.9°C

[matt111]

Nice afternoon here, sunny with blue skies. Reached 4.8°C earlier, currently 4.2°C

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, Nights King said:

Maybe better for hills of wilts/glouc but we tend to miss them due to welsh mountains from that direction.

If the wind has a slight Westerly 'hint' to it on Tuesday, as colder air digs in, there may be a chance of a Bristol Channel streamer setting up. Just a small chance.

[jtay]

Lovely day here. Ended up digging the patio ground in shorts and t-shirt. 

The trick was to keep working. Stop digging and you know about it.

Finished for the day, just in time for the footie.

[AWD]

The way I see the next week or so panning out, not that it's an overly exciting forecast because I personally don't see much excitement over the next week or so at least for our region.

Temps - I see slightly below average temperatures on the whole for our region.  For most of us this would indicate something like 4c - 6c maxes.  Coastal areas, namely along the South coast and Cornwall will provably see slightly higher temperatures, maxing out around 8c.  Despite a fluctuation in temperatures at the 850hpa level, with less cold upper air temps likely towards the end of the week, I see a negligible impact at the surface due to high pressure influence around our region.  So slightly below average temps for the week ahead, but nothing notably cold.

Frost -  With the above temperature forecast, I do see an increasing risk of frosts for many of us during the upcoming week, although more so during the second half of the week when cloud cover may become less coherent.  During the first half of the week, cloud cover will prevent a frost for many of us.

Snow -  Hahaha, yeah, good luck with this.  The much talked about frontal wave on Monday night will be of rain for our region.  Perhaps, being very optimistic, a tad bit of sleet over the Cotswolds.  The frontal wave, in my opinion, is coming down at a speed to fast to mix out the milder Atlantic air caught up in the wave, thus whilst close, it will fall the wrong side of marginal for our region.  On Tuesday and less so Wednesday, wintry showers will come down in the NNW flow.  These could provide something wintry for some of our region, although again, nothing notable.  In my experience however, a NW type airflow isn't great for many of our region, with a couple of exceptions, as the welsh mountains tend to swallow up the showers.  The one exception being Exmoor.  This area could get a few snow showers and perhaps a light covering on Tuesday.  For many of us, just an isolated shower or two possible, wintry perhaps, more so with elevation.  Sheltered and less cold down on the South Coast.

Next weekend onwards is too uncertain for me to call personally.  Colder than average weather is definitely favoured more than milder weather, but whether, like this week, that equates to slightly below average, or perhaps this time, something more significantly below average, I don't know yet.  I would keep the sledge in the garage for now though, it certainly won't be needed for the foreseeable future.

[CheesepuffScott]

Mostly cloudy but calm. 2.7°C - can also sort of notice the brighter evenings already, with some breaks in the cloud towards the WSW this evening, it was still fairly bright around 5pm

Edited January 20, 2019 by CheesepuffScott

[Mapantz]

Partly cloudy here - nice moon. Temp 2.1°C.

[Dorsetbred]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Partly cloudy here - nice moon. Temp 2.1°C.

Hoping it stays that way for the morning..

[CheesepuffScott]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Partly cloudy here - nice moon. Temp 2.1°C.

Oh yes, just checked and the cloud has cleared. A beautiful moon out indeed, unfortunately it’ll probably be too cloudy to see anything in the morning for the blood moon

[Dorsetbred]

6 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Oh yes, just checked and the cloud has cleared. A beautiful moon out indeed, unfortunately it’ll probably be too cloudy to see anything in the morning for the blood moon

[Nights King]

More snow chances and cold chances at day 10...  A pattern here. 

I'm losing the faith this winter it has to be said. 

Pass me the prozac 

[Wilxy]

Daffodils are starting to come up already, spring just around the corner!

Been a very disapointing winter here so far with no wintry weather to be seen.

3.7°c, 92%, Dew P 3°c, Rain Nil

[Mapantz]

Temp did get down to 0.7°C but it has clouded over now and temp is going back up.

[festivalking]

Thought I'd pop in as there is a small snow chance for this neck of the woods on Tuesday after the main front has swept through. No doubt studying the street lamps but it's something. Best place for snow will be about 1500ft on great mis tor. 

[CheesepuffScott]

It got down to 2.1°C but it's rising, up to 2.4°C