South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

All gone a bit Pete Tong in the MAD thread again this evening as the ECM throws a wobbly. A rogue run after earlier cross model agreement or is winter about to go on hold again for us? 

Like Nights King, i’m not feeling confident we will see anything much next week. Not cold enough in our region by the time that system heads down from the North Monday night/Tuesday. Hope I’m wrong.

[A.J]

Ice pellets here at 160m a/s/l on the edge of the marlborough downs....definitely not snow though, temps and dew points on the rise and I'm on the eastern/northern part of the region so I'll be very surprised if anyone sees any proper flakes of snow in our region tonight (except perhaps the tops of the cotswolds/marlborough downs)

[SilverWolf]

I’ve been on the MAD thread quite a bit the last few days, and yeah it’s kind of the same as most years -  ‘Upgrade!’ Then ‘damn that ECM it’ll never happen!’. But to be honest reading between the lines and looking at the charts with my very basic knowledge it does seem different to all the years I’ve been on this site. It has a more 80’s feel about potential at least - higher risk, but also higher potential. Cold, very cold, marginal but poss very snowy here and there, maybe more so even down here, then very cold immediately after. Cold from the north west meeting very cold from the east, disturbances in the flow, sliding lows that could cover southern England in a lot of snow. Sure it’s not happened yet, but feels more likely than most recent winters in the heart of winter. Maybe it’ll be alike last March, but a month earlier, with more precipitation and no milder interlude in the middle? Could be the vino but I’m quietly confident about the next month being something special, even in our bit of the world.... 

i want my 7 year old daughter to experience what I did in the first half of the 80’s around her age. Happy memories! 

[jethro]

It's lashing down here and quite sleety in the heavier bursts.

[Nights King]

4 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

I’ve been on the MAD thread quite a bit the last few days, and yeah it’s kind of the same as most years -  ‘Upgrade!’ Then ‘damn that ECM it’ll never happen!’. But to be honest reading between the lines and looking at the charts with my very basic knowledge it does seem different to all the years I’ve been on this site. It has a more 80’s feel about potential at least - higher risk, but also higher potential. Cold, very cold, marginal but poss very snowy here and there, maybe more so even down here, then very cold immediately after. Cold from the north west meeting very cold from the east, disturbances in the flow, sliding lows that could cover southern England in a lot of snow. Sure it’s not happened yet, but feels more likely than most recent winters in the heart of winter. Maybe it’ll be alike last March, but a month earlier, with more precipitation and no milder interlude in the middle? Could be the vino but I’m quietly confident about the next month being something special, even in our bit of the world.... 

i want my 7 year old daughter to experience what I did in the first half of the 80’s around her age. Happy memories! 

I do hope I am wrong wolf man but after seeing forecast for next week from bbc im just like hmm 

Winter weather like today is just meh.. cloudy with drizzle but cold enough to be a nuisance. 

[SilverWolf]

37 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I do hope I am wrong wolf man but after seeing forecast for next week from bbc im just like hmm 

Winter weather like today is just meh.. cloudy with drizzle but cold enough to be a nuisance. 

I just hope winter comes a bit quicker than on Game of Thrones! Jeez that’s a winter that has been stuck at day 10 for a long time. 

My ideal right now would be a week of v frosty mornings (some good hoarfrost would be excellent) followed by a day of a touch milder with heavy wet snow, followed by a re-freeze for a couple of days, then v cold with powder snow like last March for a day or 2, then back to dry and cold for a week. Too much to ask...? 

 

[Leon1]

Was quite sleety here for a bit, very thick raindrops landing in little bits of ice on the windscreen. Next Monday night/Tuesday morning is our next best bet.

[matt111]

Still dry here but I'd be surprised if anything icy falls considering it's 6.8°C now. 

[CheesepuffScott]

Sleety rain here! Slightly noticeable. It’s 5.3°C 

Edited January 18, 2019 by CheesepuffScott

[Mapantz]

Standard rain here, as was expected. Not particularly heavy though. Tomorrow is looking rather soggy too.

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, jethro said:

Think you're probably right there. It just isn't cold enough for an approaching front not to raise the temps/dew points too high for snow. Let's face it, down in these parts we need something akin to witch craft to enable a westerly front to fall as snow. Even here in the Mendips, I'll be amazed if it's anything other than rain, maybe up on the plateau (which is 60 or so meters higher than here) may get lucky.

We could've just done with some more embedded cold. Not having an essentially average winter day beforehand would've helped too haha.

[matt111]

As others have mentioned today, the radar showed heavy rain over me not long ago but there was nothing reaching the ground. Temperature dropping slowly now. 6.5°C.

[Mapantz]

Piddling down here at the moment.

[matt111]

Ok now it's raining. As expected with a temp of 6.1°C and DP of 3.5°C, it's pure rain and nothing else. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by matt111

[CheesepuffScott]

Gap in the rain here. Temperature hovering around 5°C

[meshellby]

Chucking down with rain here, feels too warm even for sleet!! The wait is still on, fingers crossed for Tuesday

[karlos1983]

If the GFS comes off as per 18z, many southerners could well get burried! 

Good to hear some snow reports in the Of north of the region. Been a bleak winter so far.

[matt111]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

If the GFS comes off as per 18z, many southerners could well get burried! 

Good to hear some snow reports in the Of north of the region. Been a bleak winter so far.

That includes right on the coast I presume? I guess it does if it's that cold. 

[CheesepuffScott]

A stunning 18z, so that means it'll be a pi$h poor 00z to wake up to tomorrow morning! (Sorry!)

Edited January 18, 2019 by CheesepuffScott

[khodds]

Just been out for a last ciggy and can confirm it’s VERY cold. 

And it’s not even meant to be cold yet

[Frosty hollows]

Temps are rising here

Edited January 18, 2019 by Frosty hollows

[karlos1983]

34 minutes ago, matt111 said:

That includes right on the coast I presume? I guess it does if it's that cold. 

Absolutely. ‘Tis why I would always take an easterly  

Edited January 18, 2019 by karlos1983

[Nights King]

44 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If the GFS comes off as per 18z, many southerners could well get burried! 

Good to hear some snow reports in the Of north of the region. Been a bleak winter so far.

I would love it if this could verify but I am getting model fatigue already.. its been a very long mild winter so far and a chilly day or two so far is not cutting it. I live near 300m up and i have not seen a single days snow cover this winter. 

it is also my last winter high on Mendip if I live in with other half in Bradford upon Avon although the weather is putting a serious strain on our relationship even though I warned her! She says she is a weather widow..  

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I would love it if this could verify but I am getting model fatigue already.. its been a very long mild winter so far and a chilly day or two so far is not cutting it. I live near 300m up and i have not seen a single days snow cover this winter. 

it is also my last winter high on Mendip if I live in with other half in Bradford upon Avon although the weather is putting a serious strain on our relationship even though I warned her! She says she is a weather widow..  

You’re giving up altitude dude 

[Nights King]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You’re giving up altitude dude 

She takes the p... but I cant live up there alone just for weather it is daft. She wont move because of kids and schools and friends etc. She did agree that when they grow up in 5 years or so we can look at moving back to area or another elevated site. It wouldnt be easy though, not many places at all above 200m in south of england.  I was looking at local area around wiltshire and there is nothing of decent elevation except cotwolds which are expensive and still quite a distance.  Probably one of only people that checks out elevation of every house looked at 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Nights King