South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards

[Sky Full]

3 hours ago, jethro said:

Morning all, filthy morning here, cold, wet and windy. Local artisan Christmas market in Shepton Mallet cancelled due to high winds toppling the town Christmas tree and stalls blowing over. Not exactly festive weather.

Utterly horrible weather for Christmas markets.  Tbh when the weather's like this there's only one place to go....

....Cribbs Causeway!    Get there early if you want a covered parking space! 

[Mapantz]

16 hours ago, matt111 said:

Hadn't heard of it before now. Looks very good though. 

I've had the site bookmarked for years, but I never got around to buying the software as it looks very complicated.

I sent an email to the author and he got back to me pretty quickly. He basically takes info from your location/weather station data and does his own studying of the weather for your exact location. He then creates files with the relevant data and that is used in conjunction with the GFS  and NGM modelling. It can then creates a forecast that is extremely accurate for your location. The standard version will forecast out to 9 days, and also computes instability probabilities for storm forecasting.

From what I have seen on other people's sites, it does produce excellent results. The guy who made it has spent a lot of time and effort on it, and he has M.S and B.S degree in physics, so I can see why it is so good.

I think it produces a forecast for each of the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z model runs. I have a couple of scripts waiting to read the output once it's all in place, which is good.

He said to me that he has to work on a few other ahead of me, but it should be ready within 2 to 3 days.

Edited December 15, 2018 by Mapantz

[Mapantz]

The heavens suddenly opened up here. Up to 18mm now.

[Dean E]

Afternoon all,

Been in lurking mode (blame studying!)

Horrid Saturday as you all are experiencing too. Had some brief sleet this morning around 7 before rapidly back to rain.

Already had 17mm of rain now, 5mm in the last half hour alone as the rain has picked up.

Temp 5.9°C and rising quickly now.

[lettice]

What a miserable day of constant rain since 7am, 17mm so far.
Temp hit a high of 6.6c at 1pm, just a tad lower now at 6.4c.
The SE wind has not been as strong as was forecast, 18-25mph, with mostly 30mph gusts, a few gusts hitting 34mph in last few hours.

Edited December 15, 2018 by lettice

[Mapantz]

26mm here now. December is at 108.4mm. 2018 is also officially wetter than 2016 and 17.

[Mapantz]

Only now has the wind just strengthened. Gusting to 36mph. 29mm of rain now.

[Jet Streak]

24.4mm here in Poole roads are flooded.

[Bristawl Si]

Today we have heavy rain, cold and wind; last week i was sat by the pool lapping up the sun and temps of 22c in Fuerteventura. Hate the British Winter these days!

With those Iberian heights strengthening i see wet and cool here til at least end of year and imho, right into 1st half of January.

[Leon1]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

26mm here now. December is at 108.4mm. 2018 is also officially wetter than 2016 and 17.

Even after the long, hot, dry summer it's mad that it's now wetter than the last 2 years.

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Even after the long, hot, dry summer it's mad that it's now wetter than the last 2 years.

Yep.

This doesn't include today's 30mm.

[Dean E]

31.2mm of rain has fallen today, making this the wettest day at my location since late May.

 

[matt111]

I’ve been out all day so don’t know how much rains fallen back home but if it’s anything like where I’ve been it’ll be another high total. I’ll find out soon when I get back. Glad I’ve been inside all day. 

[MP-R]

Given how much it's been raining, only 8mm has fallen at my location.

Have been at a wedding in the Forest of Dean however, and drove through that squall on the back edge of the rain going over the Severn - not nice!

[matt111]

Back home now and 28.8mm has fallen here so not far off the wettest day I’ve recorded over the last couple of years. 

Edited December 15, 2018 by matt111

[jtay]

Rotten today. Guess who got sent out in it to put the outside lights up? 

Couldn't feel my fingers. Horrible.

[matt111]

1 minute ago, jtay said:

Rotten today. Guess who got sent out in it to put the outside lights up? 

Couldn't feel my fingers. Horrible.

Should’ve done it sooner then.

Electricity and water don’t mix...  

 

[Frosty hollows]

Think you got the worst of the weather further west. A mere 9.8mm here and not too windy..Temps now starting to rise after hovering at 2 all day

[Dean E]

Rain has now stopped here recorded a daily total of 42.9mm which is the highest daily amount at my location since March 2017!

Temperature now increasing rapidly, up to 10c

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, Dean E said:

Temperature now increasing rapidly, up to 10c

I noticed it felt quite a bit milder when I got back here this evening than it did about an hour earlier. Got up to 10.7°C not long ago although it’s dropped back slightly since then. 

[Dean E]

4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

I noticed it felt quite a bit milder when I got back here this evening than it did about an hour earlier. Got up to 10.7°C not long ago although it’s dropped back slightly since then. 

Appears to be what is left in the mild sector behind the front (which gave Cornwall 13c earlier!). Some mixing out of the upper temps is occurring as winds switch more Westerly later bringing somewhat colder uppers.

[jethro]

8 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Utterly horrible weather for Christmas markets.  Tbh when the weather's like this there's only one place to go....

....Cribbs Causeway!    Get there early if you want a covered parking space! 

The mere thought of Cribbs Causeway makes me lose the will to live, especially this close to Christmas. Thankfully I've actually been organised for a change, pressies all bought and wrapped.

[Don]

As expected, horrible today and put a damper on Christmas shopping in Winchester! 

[Bristawl Si]

Squall line hitting here now. Torrential.

[Dorsetbred]

Morning all, after the dire day yesterday, the sun has returned, at least for a while before the next session of rain. Currently Temp: 3.4 °C & Dew Point: 2.7 °C.