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7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Think the latest arp might be over doing it for tomorrow brutal winds through most of the country 

arpege-11-18-0.png

arpege-11-19-0.png

:help:  Deserves a Amber warning.

Edited by pip22
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Schools are closed on Tuesday on the Portuguese Azores Islands, well out in the Atlantic, as #Storm Diana passes to the north. MeteoAlarm  Red warning for coastal event Acores - Southwest waves of

Haven't posted here in a long time. The feature to the southwest has me very interested as I feel the models are playing serious catch up with this feature. Latest EURO4 looks very concernin

The Portuguese Meteorological Authority have named Storm Diana for the impacts in the Azores on Tuesday she will then hit the UK from the southwest later on Tuesday & into Wednesday https://w

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Arpege is known to over-do winds a little but what concerns me is the difference from the previous run to this one coming out now, which suggests max gusts ~120km/h (=75mph) across a large swathe of inland England and Wales... and it’s happening in the middle of the day.

Could be some disruption.

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The Euro4 is showing it moving through slower than some models, that's the reason for intensification (if it's correct)

I'm waiting for the 18Z NetWx SR update.

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1 minute ago, Jack Minall said:

Hey guys

New here and not great with weather forecasting, how damaging do you think it could be in Hampshire tomorrow? 

You're certainly looking at gusts between 45 and 55mph, depending on location of course. This will be around rush hour, so expect the possibility of slow travel times due to some fallen trees etc

It's by no means a beast, but still something to take note of.

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Just now, Mapantz said:

You're certainly looking at gusts between 45 and 55mph, depending on location of course. This will be around rush hour, so expect the possibility of slow travel times due to some fallen trees etc

It's by no means a beast, but still something to take note of.

Cheers

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5 hours ago, JeffC said:

Good I'm flying back into Manchester later from Paris.... Don't want it lumpy

It was a la'al bit lumpy but not as bad as I expected 

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I live quite close to Chesil beach (Ferrybrige)...the waves around midday today were very high...tomorrow morning there closing the road from Weymouth to Portland as the sea will over top the bank onto the road.

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Not a great deal of difference between the 12 and 18Z on the NetWx SR model.

18Z:

iso1.thumb.png.11342947ba88d37dc64abe724296e2b9.png wind1.thumb.png.420597f154aadf7f6828f4e7d301176d.png

12Z:

iso2.thumb.png.4fc9916c4d2d75404d1f9d7da67bf277.pngwind2.thumb.png.18192451431ebbbcc293a23ceb9b94bc.png

Timings and depth of pressure are quite stark between these and the Euro4.

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11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not a great deal of difference between the 12 and 18Z on the NetWx SR model.

18Z:

iso1.thumb.png.11342947ba88d37dc64abe724296e2b9.png wind1.thumb.png.420597f154aadf7f6828f4e7d301176d.png

12Z:

iso2.thumb.png.4fc9916c4d2d75404d1f9d7da67bf277.pngwind2.thumb.png.18192451431ebbbcc293a23ceb9b94bc.png

Timings and depth of pressure are quite stark between these and the Euro4.

Slight shift eastwards?  Little difference otherwise.  

Will be up early tomorrow and intrigued to see if this does strengthen our or not. Regardless looks like a horrible commute for many! 

Also, Anyone looked at the predicted rainfall totals? Was just wondering if these are increasing alongside the models forecasting the higher winds? 

Had an awful lot of rain here over the last week or so!

 

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Very windy for a time this morning but the squall line broke up before reaching here so I probably missed the strongest of the gusts going by reports elsewhere. Much calmer now with the sun breaking through. 

Edited by matt111
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This secondary low, linked to the trailing front of what was Storm Diana has caused a fair variation in the models as to how much the low was going to develop. Forming from a wave in the front, and how much it would develop, there were concerns that it could develop a sting jet as it moved over the NE of Britain this afternoon. It's that balance which makes situations like this so tricky.

Shipping Forecast - Cromarty
Gale warning - issued: 15:53 on Thu 29 Nov 2018 UTC
Wind Southerly or southeasterly, veering southwesterly for a time, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 at times, occasionally storm 10 at first.
Sea state Rough or very rough, occasionally high, becoming moderate at times.

It was quite a balance, yet the warnings stayed at Yellow. After yesterday's wet and windy weather and the public were aware there was more to come, there is no need to identify another low by name. This episode comes under the umbrella of StormDiana. Named by the IPMA, Portuguese Met service in relation to stormy conditions for the Azores on Tuesday. This may happen again if Spain/France/Portugal decide to name lows. The UK/Ireland list will continue with Deirdre but there could be further interruptions. It isn't worth being specific or scientific about this naming lark. It is a communication tool, think from the ground looking up. To the public, it has been a bout of wet and windy weather all linked to Storm Diana. 

There was some nasty line convection, with horrible conditions. Highest gusts reported so far were in the SW Isles of Scilly 74mph and Plymouth 73mph. It has now turned noticeably colder after nearly 15C in Yorkshire today. 

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