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Winter viewpoint 2018 /19 NH PATTERNS


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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
On 28/11/2018 at 10:01, Spanish Dani said:

Im from Valladolid, they are expecting dry and warmer than normal throughout 

this is looking to be a good call from Spanish meto

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  • 11 months later...

Just raising this thread from 14 months ago noting the initial paragraph highlights the 'new world climate change' where High pressures are becoming 'super high pressures in terms of intensity & thicknesses-

This is finally being noted by other mets -

Notably Judah Cohen

3C8E614F-6666-4DE0-992A-4B4E6D83F104.thumb.png.6a5f6f6ea142f3c035ba4c1b765211d0.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Just raising this thread from 14 months ago noting the initial paragraph highlights the 'new world climate change' where High pressures are becoming 'super high pressures in terms of intensity & thicknesses-

This is finally being noted by other mets -

Notably Judah Cohen

3C8E614F-6666-4DE0-992A-4B4E6D83F104.thumb.png.6a5f6f6ea142f3c035ba4c1b765211d0.png

Like the idea of super highs, especially if they sit over us in summer, as well as winter - preferably to the north or north east, not to our south..

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Like the idea of super highs, especially if they sit over us in summer, as well as winter - preferably to the north or north east, not to our south..

What's the betting they sit to our south in winter?!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
9 minutes ago, Don said:

What's the betting they sit to our south in winter?!

More years than not - yes. The sub tropical high pressure belt is increasing in strength and it will be harder and harder to displace it. However that one year in 10 pattern where factors align to provide sufficient momentum to catapult a major blocking high north could therefore produce serious cold if everything aligns.

In essence - all roads lead to more incidences of extremes? For the UK more warm than cold extremes, but the cold ones might catch the eye just a tad. Will be interesting to survey what happens over the next 30 years. Hope I live that long....

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

In essence - all roads lead to more incidences of extremes? For the UK more warm than cold extremes, but the cold ones might catch the eye just a tad. Will be interesting to survey what happens over the next 30 years. Hope I live that long....

Lots of 2006 esque summers with 40C breached on occasion and most winters 2006/07 esque with 21C breached on occasion over the next 30 years, with just the odd colder season thrown in!  The idea of a weakening Gulf Stream leading to colder UK winters seems to have gone up the shoot!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
33 minutes ago, Catacol said:

More years than not - yes. The sub tropical high pressure belt is increasing in strength and it will be harder and harder to displace it. However that one year in 10 pattern where factors align to provide sufficient momentum to catapult a major blocking high north could therefore produce serious cold if everything aligns.

In essence - all roads lead to more incidences of extremes? For the UK more warm than cold extremes, but the cold ones might catch the eye just a tad. Will be interesting to survey what happens over the next 30 years. Hope I live that long....

An extreme cold winter no doubt will pop up sooner rather than later.. given we seem to be entering into a period when extremes are becoming more common. Unfortunately I also think an extreme wet summer may also feature.. along with some further extreme wet winters.. rainfall perhaps more than warmth will be the biggest headliner in years to come.. 

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