Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    unreal it's that low, most un wintry Dec I have known, lack of frost to keep minimums up I'd have thought

    surely Dec 2015 was far worse..felt more like early summer

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 287
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2018-19 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecas

    Another mild washout whimper to end another naff year and my worst year ever.  Rest in pieces 2018!  12C    Last sub 0C, last sub 1C, last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 4C December all in 2010.

    Hadley is confirmed as 6.9C. Joint 15th warmest. The annual CET was 10.69C, 4th warmest.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    13 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    surely Dec 2015 was far worse..felt more like early summer

    not much difference, no wintry weather, that was 9.7, thought this would be around 8

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

    A memory from December 2015 sticks out. Sometime after mid-month, early morning (1-ish) I was travelling to Brookwood from Bracknell and it was absolutely shocking the mildness -  a temperature gauge on one of the office towers was reading 15C and a strong wind was blowing. It felt like a warm July night! -tropical. There were a number of mornings that month (possibly approaching double figures) where it felt almost as warm as this.

    In amazing contrast, December 2010 and near to Christmas, I was (regrettably) drinking in Camberley in a nightclub called Tru. Finished at about 2-ish, got a lift back home, digital thermometer was reading -11C, but it didn't really feel that cold. I think it droped close to -15C that morning.

    Two similar locations, two very different conditions!

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Saw the first signs of spring in Clumber park daffodils beginning to grow. Anyway the mild Dec continues

    Sunny Sheffield at 6C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 91.6mm 105.4% of the monthly average.

    Sadly the +6C apart from 71/72 which had two months just below average means very little chance of a cold winter. Of course stats are made to be broken and if I keep posting it hopefully I'll upset the weather gods.

    The downside of this mild weather is blanket weed appearing in the ponds and bushes not dying back and growing happily. Not mild enough to get the grass growing like 2015. The hedges are growing slowly which again doesn't normally happen bar 2015.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    11 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    Saw the first signs of spring in Clumber park daffodils beginning to grow. Anyway the mild Dec continues

    Sunny Sheffield at 6C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 91.6mm 105.4% of the monthly average.

    Sadly the +6C apart from 71/72 which had two months just below average means very little chance of a cold winter. Of course stats are made to be broken and if I keep posting it hopefully I'll upset the weather gods.

    The downside of this mild weather is blanket weed appearing in the ponds and bushes not dying back and growing happily. Not mild enough to get the grass growing like 2015. The hedges are growing slowly which again doesn't normally happen bar 2015.

     

    We have hazels at about 500ft, with catkins on them!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.9c to the 24th

    2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________________

    Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

    Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    4.9c here to the 24th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

    68.8mm of rain so far, just surpassing the average month total (66.8mm)

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    3 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

    4.9c here to the 24th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

    68.8mm of rain so far, just surpassing the average month total (66.8mm)

    This all seems a bit a low to me are you sure that 4.9C is correct and not 5.9C. You're normally close what I get.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
    3 hours ago, The PIT said:

    This all seems a bit a low to me are you sure that 4.9C is correct and not 5.9C. You're normally close what I get.

    It's correct mate, earlier in the month there was quite a North/South split so even though we are only 60 miles apart we were the opposite side of the dividing line.

    20181225_201441.thumb.jpg.f927c139caa3562159730fba07e3d29e.jpg 20181225_201418.thumb.jpg.9487497e3e3ff005719c26dcbf9af6b0.jpg

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    On 02/12/2018 at 12:45, snowray said:

    Probably go over 10c today, balmy mild night, nowhere got under 10c, and today we are seeing temps of 13-15c widely at 12.00.?

    I was tempted to go for a very mild 6.6c but at the last minute I thought I'd take my chance with this upcoming cold snap coming to fruition, and possibly turning into something a little more memorable. More a case of hopecasting that anything else if I'm honest, anyway ended up going for the 4,4c that no one had picked and was tempting me with this little voice saying...pick me, pick me.....☺️

    6.6c was my original punt, changed my mind at the last minute, I simply can't do it....I mean go mild in a Winter month! ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    6.6c was my original punt, changed my mind at the last minute, I simply can't do it....I mean go mild in a Winter month! ?

    mine was 8.0, feels that high, suppose it was the less mild spell from around 12th-15th that kept it down

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    mine was 8.0, feels that high, suppose it was the less mild spell from around 12th-15th that kept it down

    Yes at one point I thought we could have ended up over 7c, must say that was a good prediction 8c, miles better than my 4.4c which was, lets face it, way, way, too optimistic for cold.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, snowray said:

    Yes at one point I thought we could have ended up over 7c, must say that was a good prediction 8c, miles better than my 4.4c which was, lets face it, way, way, too optimistic for cold.

    I'll be closer, 1 degree out maybe, but other members probably dead on, or closer

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    I'll be closer, 1 degree out maybe, but other members probably dead on, or closer

    Winters are hard to predict, if we had a cold snap around and after Christmas with low minima, we could easily have ended up in the 4s. In fact It was a lot colder in mid November when it snowed in a few places and there were some hard frosts around. One day we will get  a decent cold and snowy weather pattern again in December like in 2010, and 1981, 1996. I remember it snowing in Trafalgar Square on new years in 1996.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    colder october holiday week here, but Atlantic not as powerful then

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield still at 6C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 91.7mm 105.5% of the monthly average. Latest GFS gives a land zone of 6,3C

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.8c to the 25th

    2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________________

    Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

    Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.8c to the 26th

    2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________________

    Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

    Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    4.9c here to the 26th, 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 6C still +1.0C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. 

    Local Forecast has us finishing on 6.4C

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP tracker through 25 days had reached 114 mm, which just happens to be the prediction from the first year champion (Singularity). I wouldn't expect very much more on the tracker so it becomes a question of how much that value might change in the final report. All forecasts in the zone of 110 to 125 mm stand a chance based on past experience with those final adjustments. 

    Next report on this will be the final tracker value and a provisional look at scoring, to be followed by the final results around the 5th or 6th of January. 

     

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 6.1C, +1.2C above normal. Rainfall still at 91.7mm 105.5% of the monthly average. The last few days maybe as mild 1st seven days of the month. This high pressure could last a while yet so I'm not expecting any real change for a while so Jan is likely to get off to a mild dry start as well. It may feed some colder air in but this will depend on how much it jiggles to the west and how much cold is dropped into Europe.

    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...