Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Roger J Smith

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

unreal it's that low, most un wintry Dec I have known, lack of frost to keep minimums up I'd have thought

surely Dec 2015 was far worse..felt more like early summer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

surely Dec 2015 was far worse..felt more like early summer

not much difference, no wintry weather, that was 9.7, thought this would be around 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A memory from December 2015 sticks out. Sometime after mid-month, early morning (1-ish) I was travelling to Brookwood from Bracknell and it was absolutely shocking the mildness -  a temperature gauge on one of the office towers was reading 15C and a strong wind was blowing. It felt like a warm July night! -tropical. There were a number of mornings that month (possibly approaching double figures) where it felt almost as warm as this.

In amazing contrast, December 2010 and near to Christmas, I was (regrettably) drinking in Camberley in a nightclub called Tru. Finished at about 2-ish, got a lift back home, digital thermometer was reading -11C, but it didn't really feel that cold. I think it droped close to -15C that morning.

Two similar locations, two very different conditions!

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw the first signs of spring in Clumber park daffodils beginning to grow. Anyway the mild Dec continues

Sunny Sheffield at 6C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 91.6mm 105.4% of the monthly average.

Sadly the +6C apart from 71/72 which had two months just below average means very little chance of a cold winter. Of course stats are made to be broken and if I keep posting it hopefully I'll upset the weather gods.

The downside of this mild weather is blanket weed appearing in the ponds and bushes not dying back and growing happily. Not mild enough to get the grass growing like 2015. The hedges are growing slowly which again doesn't normally happen bar 2015.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Saw the first signs of spring in Clumber park daffodils beginning to grow. Anyway the mild Dec continues

Sunny Sheffield at 6C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 91.6mm 105.4% of the monthly average.

Sadly the +6C apart from 71/72 which had two months just below average means very little chance of a cold winter. Of course stats are made to be broken and if I keep posting it hopefully I'll upset the weather gods.

The downside of this mild weather is blanket weed appearing in the ponds and bushes not dying back and growing happily. Not mild enough to get the grass growing like 2015. The hedges are growing slowly which again doesn't normally happen bar 2015.

 

We have hazels at about 500ft, with catkins on them!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.9c to the 24th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4.9c here to the 24th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

68.8mm of rain so far, just surpassing the average month total (66.8mm)

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

4.9c here to the 24th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

68.8mm of rain so far, just surpassing the average month total (66.8mm)

This all seems a bit a low to me are you sure that 4.9C is correct and not 5.9C. You're normally close what I get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, The PIT said:

This all seems a bit a low to me are you sure that 4.9C is correct and not 5.9C. You're normally close what I get.

It's correct mate, earlier in the month there was quite a North/South split so even though we are only 60 miles apart we were the opposite side of the dividing line.

20181225_201441.thumb.jpg.f927c139caa3562159730fba07e3d29e.jpg 20181225_201418.thumb.jpg.9487497e3e3ff005719c26dcbf9af6b0.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps 7c is out of the question but 6.6 would give the 2nd mildest December in 30 years!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 02/12/2018 at 12:45, snowray said:

Probably go over 10c today, balmy mild night, nowhere got under 10c, and today we are seeing temps of 13-15c widely at 12.00.🤔

I was tempted to go for a very mild 6.6c but at the last minute I thought I'd take my chance with this upcoming cold snap coming to fruition, and possibly turning into something a little more memorable. More a case of hopecasting that anything else if I'm honest, anyway ended up going for the 4,4c that no one had picked and was tempting me with this little voice saying...pick me, pick me.....☺️

6.6c was my original punt, changed my mind at the last minute, I simply can't do it....I mean go mild in a Winter month! 😣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, snowray said:

6.6c was my original punt, changed my mind at the last minute, I simply can't do it....I mean go mild in a Winter month! 😣

mine was 8.0, feels that high, suppose it was the less mild spell from around 12th-15th that kept it down

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mine was 8.0, feels that high, suppose it was the less mild spell from around 12th-15th that kept it down

Yes at one point I thought we could have ended up over 7c, must say that was a good prediction 8c, miles better than my 4.4c which was, lets face it, way, way, too optimistic for cold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, snowray said:

Yes at one point I thought we could have ended up over 7c, must say that was a good prediction 8c, miles better than my 4.4c which was, lets face it, way, way, too optimistic for cold.

I'll be closer, 1 degree out maybe, but other members probably dead on, or closer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'll be closer, 1 degree out maybe, but other members probably dead on, or closer

Winters are hard to predict, if we had a cold snap around and after Christmas with low minima, we could easily have ended up in the 4s. In fact It was a lot colder in mid November when it snowed in a few places and there were some hard frosts around. One day we will get  a decent cold and snowy weather pattern again in December like in 2010, and 1981, 1996. I remember it snowing in Trafalgar Square on new years in 1996.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield still at 6C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall 91.7mm 105.5% of the monthly average. Latest GFS gives a land zone of 6,3C

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.8c to the 25th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 25/12/2018 at 20:17, Matthew. said:

Perhaps 7c is out of the question

Looking at the forecast this morning I’m not so sure now:oldlaugh:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.8c to the 26th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4.9c here to the 26th, 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield at 6C still +1.0C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. 

Local Forecast has us finishing on 6.4C

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EWP tracker through 25 days had reached 114 mm, which just happens to be the prediction from the first year champion (Singularity). I wouldn't expect very much more on the tracker so it becomes a question of how much that value might change in the final report. All forecasts in the zone of 110 to 125 mm stand a chance based on past experience with those final adjustments. 

Next report on this will be the final tracker value and a provisional look at scoring, to be followed by the final results around the 5th or 6th of January. 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.1C, +1.2C above normal. Rainfall still at 91.7mm 105.5% of the monthly average. The last few days maybe as mild 1st seven days of the month. This high pressure could last a while yet so I'm not expecting any real change for a while so Jan is likely to get off to a mild dry start as well. It may feed some colder air in but this will depend on how much it jiggles to the west and how much cold is dropped into Europe.

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...