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Roger J Smith

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

As to CET outcome, I wonder if we're on 5.9 watch. A long stretch of higher pressure after 24th might allow the CET to slump down gradually, if it finished on 6.1 they could adjust to 5.9 quite easily. (5.9 being the elusive never recorded value) ... as far as never recorded values, I find the one lone instance of 3.1 C in January 1832 even more amazing given how close it is to the long-term median or average values. By my calculation, if we finally get that elusive 5.9 in December (it would be 95th warmest), the next most significant missing CET value becomes 1.3 C for February (would be 31st coldest). The most significant missing value on the warmer side of normal would become either of 12.1 or 12.2 for October (would be 16th warmest next year) while a 16.3 for next June would rank 15th warmest. All other months are missing only values of warmer ranks than those. 

Todays ECM 12z gives a final CET of around 6.7c.  Big differences are apparent from run to run at the moment, all down to the position and cloud content and uppers in the high.

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6.8c to the 20th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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25 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

An outside chance of finishing on 7c maybe can’t be ruled out?

Although theoretically possible high pressure centered very close to the UK at this time of year will tend to put more negative than positive pressure on the CET due to even dirty mild high's producing fog and keeping maxima down. I would therefore tend to lean more towards a figure around 6C, especially after corrections.

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5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Although theoretically possible high pressure centered very close to the UK at this time of year will tend to put more negative than positive pressure on the CET due to even dirty mild high's producing fog and keeping maxima down. I would therefore tend to lean more towards a figure around 6C, especially after corrections.

Yes was thinking that. It just looked like high pressure might just sit towards the Se of the country perhaps maintaining a Sw flow rising the minima levels.

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4.9c here to the 20th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

59.0mm so far.

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Sunny Sheffield at 6.1C +0.6C above average. Rainfall 71.9mm 82.7% of the month average. With dry weather on the cards after Sunday it's unlikely to make 100mm here. Temperature wise two cold days coming up then increasingly mild to the end of the month. So I reckon Sunny Sheffield will be between 6C and 6.3C

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7 hours ago, Matthew. said:

An outside chance of finishing on 7c maybe can’t be ruled out?

Quite correct Matthew. high nighttime minima will be they key to keeping the CET much closer to 7c than 6c. 

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50 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

Quite correct Matthew. high nighttime minima will be they key to keeping the CET much closer to 7c than 6c. 

Yes had a quick check just now and came up with 6.9 before corrections. I think to hit 7 we would need milder minima on Christmas Eve and day.

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7.0C is definitely not out of the question- it seems that it may well be a cloudy high which will keep minima up.

Personally I think it will finish somewhere in the middle of 6.0C and 7.0C.

Edited by Scorcher

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6.8c to the 21st

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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Sunny Sheffield unchanged at 6.1C +0.8C above normal, Rainfall 86mm 99% of average rainfall for the month. So this month is going to very mild with average rainfall by the looks of things.

 

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5.0c here to the 22nd, 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

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6.9c to the 22nd

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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On 22/12/2018 at 07:19, Scorcher said:

7.0C is definitely not out of the question- it seems that it may well be a cloudy high which will keep minima up.

Personally I think it will finish somewhere in the middle of 6.0C and 7.0C.

I went for 8.0C, but got the general theme right, Atlantic domination, virtually no wintry weather

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Hadley EWP tracker was 103 mm after 21st, some additional amounts yesterday and more today will leave us near 115 mm with a relatively dry week to finish the month. Will reset the Hadley EWP prediction to around 120 mm.

As to CET, slack gradients will mean that any fog that forms could be persistent, I would bet one or two days will be considerably colder than predicted in some parts of south-central England in this spell. But CET does seem locked into some value around 6 to 6.5 before corrections. 

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Hadley EWP tracker was 103 mm after 21st, some additional amounts yesterday and more today will leave us near 115 mm with a relatively dry week to finish the month. Will reset the Hadley EWP prediction to around 120 mm.

As to CET, slack gradients will mean that any fog that forms could be persistent, I would bet one or two days will be considerably colder than predicted in some parts of south-central England in this spell. But CET does seem locked into some value around 6 to 6.5 before corrections. 

Its obviously a long shot still but its not out of the question that i could get the CET and EWP double bang on the nose - 6.3 and 119mm i think, not sure if its ever been done before.

EDIT : actually probably not, i actually went for 117, thought it was 119.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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That isn't going to reduce your chances much, the tracker is only approximate when compared to their final numbers, it seems to change up or down by zero to 5 mm once they review the stations they use. There are a lot of forecasts between 114 and 125 mm so you'll need a bit of luck. 

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Sunny Sheffield still at 6.1C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 91.4mm 105.2% of normal for the month. Should be 6C tomorrow any increase will be due to mild nights. Sunny Sheffield to finish around 6.1C to 6.3C I reckon.

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6.9c to the 23rd

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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Cloudy Edmonton is currently at -8.1c which is +2.9c above normal...with 17cm of lying snow which is down from 28cm at the start of the month

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6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.9c to the 23rd

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

unreal it's that low, most un wintry Dec I have known, lack of frost to keep minimums up I'd have thought

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

unreal it's that low, most un wintry Dec I have known, lack of frost to keep minimums up I'd have thought

I suspect the lack of any prolonged Atlantic feed of air has helped to keep the CET a bit lower

December 2017 was 4.8c which was pretty much around the monthly average. We'll be much higher than that this year especially with another mild period from Wednesday

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