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Roger J Smith

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Is it? Sounds like the prediction you made about below average last month. The outlook looks pretty mild to me now.

Wrong (again) last month I predicted the cet to be ABOVE average and it was, and how well did you do in last months competition?😁

I will be intrigued to see how close you get with your prediction for this month............

The fact is you don't participate in the competition yourself, but take pleasure in having a dig at others that do.

The last week of December could be cold, if it ends up mild or average then I was wrong, lets wait and see?;)

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On 14/12/2018 at 20:58, DAVID SNOW said:

Sub 6c is very much on, how close we get to 5 is the interesting part.....

Or, in my case, anywhere near 4.3!

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4.8c here to the 15th, 0.6c above the 1981-2010 average.

Temps over the last few days were nowhere near the ones predicted by the Met Office hence staying above average.

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20 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Wrong (again) last month I predicted the cet to be ABOVE average and it was, and how well did you do in last months competition?😁

I will be intrigued to see how close you get with your prediction for this month............

The fact is you don't participate in the competition yourself, but take pleasure in having a dig at others that do.

The last week of December could be cold, if it ends up mild or average then I was wrong, lets wait and see?;)

Not taking pleasure in digs at all, this doesn't seem to happen with anyone else in here. I just take exception to some of the overly bold predictions that are cold biased. Most of the time they turn out to be incorrect, but when you are correct you make sure that everyone knows it.

Maybe you did predict an above average month last month but you also predicted a large downward correction due to some mystery knowledge you indicated you had. There was actually an upward correction!

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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Not taking pleasure in digs at all, this doesn't seem to happen with anyone else in here. I just take exception to some of the overly bold predictions that are cold biased. Most of the time they turn out to be incorrect, but when you are correct you make sure that everyone knows it.

Maybe you did predict an above average month last month but you also predicted a large downward correction due to some mystery knowledge you indicated you had. There was actually an upward correction!

Agree with that, can think of a few every year, it's called 'fish 4 likes'

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6.7c to the 16th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th

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6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with that, can think of a few every year, it's called 'fish 4 likes'

But I don't post my so called cold bias in the MOD thread, so how am I fishing 4 likes? Certainly wont get any in here!;)

As for last week December, all depends where any high sets up, could be cold.

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On 10/12/2018 at 09:15, cheeky_monkey said:

Cloudy Edmonton is at -11.9c to the 9th which is slightly below normal by 0.9c..expect that to rise above normal as we head into a mild next 7-10 days

Now at -8.7c which is +2.3c above normal..mild sticks around for the rest of the week with some more +5c days.

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

6.7C to the 17th... +1.8 (6.0: +1.6)
6.7C to the 18th... +1.8 (6.6: +2.2)
6.7C to the 19th... +1.8 (6.5: +2.2)
6.7C to the 20th... +1.9 (7.7: +4.0)
6.8C to the 21st... +2.0 (8.1: +3.9)
6.9C to the 22nd... +2.1 (8.3: +3.8)
6.9C to the 23rd... +2.2 (8.6: +3.9)
6.9C to the 24th... +2.2 (6.5: +1.8)
6.8C to the 25th... +2.0 (3.5: -1.0)
6.7C to the 26th... +2.0 (5.7: +1.4)
 

The 12z suggests little change in the CET  in the coming 10 days, with temperatures well above average for the most part.
A reasonable chance of going into the final week close to the 25 warmest Decembers on record.

Dec16.thumb.JPG.430e3b6f0e68ca820ced07c93c02ff87.JPG  Dec16MM.thumb.JPG.bd016049e79720bc151ef7455628536e.JPG

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2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

But I don't post my so called cold bias in the MOD thread, so how am I fishing 4 likes? Certainly wont get any in here!;)

As for last week December, all depends where any high sets up, could be cold.

not you dave, we know who I think, also never ever known the certain member to give anyone else a 'like' either

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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Sunny Sheffield down to 5.9C +0.1C above normal. Rainfall 60.2mm 69.3% of the monthly average. 

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The Hadley EWP tracker is similar to what The PIT reported, 65 mm through 15 days, quite likely picked up about 5 mm since then too. 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

Looks to be headed towards at least 100 mm, which is close to average for December (the most recent 30 years 100.1 mm, 1981-2010 closer to 97 mm). 

A reminder, we are only using Hadley in the contest this year, no more NCIC. And I have the excel file set up with the December forecasts and point reductions waiting for final scoring. If you missed the post about scoring, one slight change being made for this contest, as with the CET, the order of entries will make a slight difference to your scoring, if you happen to choose a value already entered, you'll go down 0.1 (the late penalties remain 0.2 per day). The typical step value between ranked EWP scores is 0.2 so it's half (or more) of that severity to be second (to fourth) entering with a given value. Scores then proceed as usual, counting all of those equal forecasts as full steps, so for example, if the four at 100.0 mm happened to be high score this month, they would come in at 10.0, 9.9, 9.8 and 9.7 (none were late but if the last one had been, that would read 9.5) and then the next closest forecast would score 9.2. Not saying those four at 100 mm will be high score, but it is looking to finish close to there. 

The summary table that I posted at the on-time deadline in this thread had a couple of errors in it, spotted while I was working on the final table of entries, those being (a) DAVID SNOW was actually at 99 mm and Mulzy the last of four 100 mm entries, and (b) one of the entries reading 122 mm should have been 125 mm. I make a habit of proofreading these summaries of the entries before posting the final versions, however, if anyone spots any data errors in the excel file of course we would be able to correct those. 

I will be able to post the provisional scoring when the Hadley tracker graph reaches the 31st, then adjust it when final values are posted in their linked data. Another new feature this year will be keeping track of average (absolute) errors, we didn't bother with that in the first contest year. I am interested in seeing the correlation with the points scoring from rankings. Having the errors in the table would also allow you to check for your own bias (not evident from average absolute, but if you worked out your own average error before signs removed). 

The scoring table will have a section showing all monthly values from 1981 to present time, so you can use that as an aid to forecasting (although it's easy enough to access that on the same website mentioned, in fact if you don't have that link bookmarked, here it is, for the full range of UK P(recip) data they have.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/download.html

So all of that will mean the contest scoring thread will be free from lengthy EWP scoring posts, perhaps just an announcement and link. I will continue to post the tables of entries over there around the 4th of each month once the late entries are finished arriving. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Can't see much change in the CET value between now and christmas, with predominantly mild weather dominating - last week most likely to see a downturn, could be a notable one (how many times this year has that happened), clear skies will allow much lower minimum. However, a finish at least 1 degree above average most likely at least.

 

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Looking at similar solar analogues, 1954 is our best hope after such a horrically warm December (though it has not felt nearly as bad as 06 or 15).

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6.7c to the 17th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th & 17th

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4.8c here to the 17th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

47.2mm so far.

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Sunny Sheffield back up 6C +0.3C above normal. rainfall unchanged. Looks like we are above the dreaded 6C mark. End of the month looks cold so that may drive it under 6C mark here.

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6.8c to the 18th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th & 17th

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Sunny Sheffield at 6C +0.4C above average. Rainfall 67.5mm 77.7% of average for the month. GFS extending the mild weather a little bit so looking a 6C to 6.3C finish here.

Edited by The PIT

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Hadley EWP had reached 71 mm after 17th. Still seems to have a bit left in the pipeline and on track to get around the even 100 mm mark, systems look weaker and weaker though. I have the excel file all set up and you'll find it with preliminary results as soon as the tracker reaches the 31st, then it will be edited with final results that you can see by about the 6th of January I hope. They never move far from their tracker but last month it was enough to move a few people up or down the table I had ready. No more long tables anyway. 

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10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Hadley EWP had reached 71 mm after 17th. Still seems to have a bit left in the pipeline and on track to get around the even 100 mm mark, systems look weaker and weaker though. I have the excel file all set up and you'll find it with preliminary results as soon as the tracker reaches the 31st, then it will be edited with final results that you can see by about the 6th of January I hope. They never move far from their tracker but last month it was enough to move a few people up or down the table I had ready. No more long tables anyway. 

Or the uneven 99:oldgrin:

JFF Roger.

Edited by DAVID SNOW

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6.7c to the 19th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 6.7c to the 16th, 17th & 19th

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No change at Sunny Sheffield Average temp 6C 0.5C above normal. Rainfall up to 67.7mm 77.9% of average. GFS moving away from a colder outlook so it's a question how far above 6C we will go.

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Hadley EWP tracker jumped to 85 mm after 18th. Link in a recent post with update to 15th. Using an estimate of 10 mm further on 19th and 20th, then GFS estimate of 25 mm to 31st, this suggests an outcome near 120 mm. That would be the 48th wettest among the 253 years then on record. 130 mm is 36th wettest. The only Decembers wetter since 2000 would be 2002, 2012, 2013 and 2015. If the estimate of 120 mm is used, the year would finish at 915.4 mm, very close to the annual total for 2013 (916.8 mm), and would be drier than all other recent years (21st century) except 2003 (761.4 mm), 2005 (825.1 mm), 2006 (904.8 mm), 2010 (822.4 mm) and 2011 (786.9 mm). 

However, 2018 is not going to finish very far short of the past three years; approximately 157 mm would tie 2017, 165 would tie 2016 and 175 would tie 2015 (for annual totals).

A total of 915.4 mm would make the year 132nd driest or 122nd wettest of the 253 since 1766. 2003 was 25th driest on the list, while 2012 was 3rd wettest. More recent averages have risen a bit from the long-term totals, as 2018 would be 12th driest and 19th wettest of the most recent thirty years then on record (1989 to 2018). 

 

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As to CET outcome, I wonder if we're on 5.9 watch. A long stretch of higher pressure after 24th might allow the CET to slump down gradually, if it finished on 6.1 they could adjust to 5.9 quite easily. (5.9 being the elusive never recorded value) ... as far as never recorded values, I find the one lone instance of 3.1 C in January 1832 even more amazing given how close it is to the long-term median or average values. By my calculation, if we finally get that elusive 5.9 in December (it would be 95th warmest), the next most significant missing CET value becomes 1.3 C for February (would be 31st coldest). The most significant missing value on the warmer side of normal would become either of 12.1 or 12.2 for October (would be 16th warmest next year) while a 16.3 for next June would rank 15th warmest. All other months are missing only values of warmer ranks than those. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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