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Roger J Smith

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

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Sunny Sheffield at 7.8C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall 23.5mm 27% of average . With the fat lady beginning to sing over next weeks cold spell and also the very mild weather as well it looks like we see a short fast drop at the beginning of next week this slowing as we head back to more average figures. 

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8.3c to the 6th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.0c to the 5th

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

8.6C to the 7th.... +3.0 (10.6: +5.8)
8.6C to the 8th.... +3.1 (8.7: +4.3)
8.6C to the 9th.... +3.2 (8.3: +3.8)
8.4C to the 10th... +3.2 (6.9: +2.6)
8.4C to the 11th... +3.2 (7.9: +3.7)
8.2C to the 12th... +3.1 (6.5: +2.3)
8.1C to the 13th... +3.1 (6.9: +2.3)
8.2C to the 14th... +3.2 (9.6: +5.2)
8.2C to the 15th... +3.2 (8.0: +3.4)
8.2C to the 16th... +3.2 (7.4: +2.8)

Consistently mild to very mild, but no exceptional individual days. Overall, we're on target to see the first half of the month in the 15 warmest on record though.

DEC6MM.thumb.JPG.aceae058c9b2e5f12cf92a031d894670.JPG  DEC6MM2.thumb.JPG.eefcbb5b88d92d595f4b06681420ae22.JPG

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Sunny Sheffield at 7.9C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 23.5mm 32.8% of rainfall. 

With a massive shift in the models in 24 hrs we have lost any cold next week so little in the may of decline of temperatures next week. 

Rodger will know that I'm looking at >6C value. If we end up high above that in 64 years of records we have never had a cold winter. Stats are made to be broken but I think ending up above 6C is rather likely. 

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Well most will settle for an 86-87 situation where maybe the winter wasn't ranked cold but mid-January certainly was. (Dec 86 CET was 6.2) -- that winter must have been borderline for breaking your rule (6.2, 0.8, 3.6 ... mean 3.53). 

Also to me it looks like becoming increasingly cold zonal with some rather cold days at times even before that 21-23 Dec period that I think will be stormy and perhaps see a pattern starting to change. 

Meanwhile in contest news, all the precip scoring (EWP contests) is finished now, Singularity is our first year winner by a healthy margin.

I have also posted a table over in the contest scoring thread showing combined ranks of CET and EWP forecasts (where possible) and in that, Don is the winner. Of course in the CET, it was Man with Beard but he doesn't do the EWP. 

The LG approach is good for dead last, but it is entertaining (and perhaps not dead last this month, although nobody went all that low). 

 

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8 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Well most will settle for an 86-87 situation where maybe the winter wasn't ranked cold but mid-January certainly was. (Dec 86 CET was 6.2) -- that winter must have been borderline for breaking your rule (6.2, 0.8, 3.6 ... mean 3.53). 

Also to me it looks like becoming increasingly cold zonal with some rather cold days at times even before that 21-23 Dec period that I think will be stormy and perhaps see a pattern starting to change. 

Meanwhile in contest news, all the precip scoring (EWP contests) is finished now, Singularity is our first year winner by a healthy margin.

I have also posted a table over in the contest scoring thread showing combined ranks of CET and EWP forecasts (where possible) and in that, Don is the winner. Of course in the CET, it was Man with Beard but he doesn't do the EWP. 

The LG approach is good for dead last, but it is entertaining (and perhaps not dead last this month, although nobody went all that low). 

 

I think LG won in April 2011?:shok:

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He knows I am just kidding, as I don't think he actually believes his forecasts will verify most of the time. It was dead last for the contest year on both fronts (among regular participants at least). 

and he was also high score for Dec 2015 -- so that's 4 years and 8 months, looking good for August 2020 to be a scorcheroo. 

Mind you, he upped his ante since the debacle of being colder than reality in Dec 2015, that won't happen again. ;)

I don't recall Apr 2011 result but I was actually second for Dec 2015 and missed by over 2 degrees! Probably a lot of warmish forecasts back in Apr 2011 as the charts must have been showing warmth that started early that month. No doubt some high 10s and maybe a brave call of 11? Might be back in the archives on page eight million I suppose. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Hey so I looked that up, here's the top five ... for April 2011.

1. Craig Evans 12.0

2. Atlantic Flamethrower 11.6

3. Roger J Smith 11.5

4. Glacier Point 11.2

5. Don 11.1

Seems that Craig (who is LG for the recently arrived) put down his marker before AF. I'm calling my effort not too shabby. 

Is Atlantic Flamethrower still here under a new name? 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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8.4c to the 7th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.0c to the 5th

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Sunny Sheffield at 8C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall 39.2mm 45.1% of average

Models still showing a bit of difference but the trend still continues towards the less cold outlook.  Overall its looking like we will get a very mild month.

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6.1c here to the 7th, 1.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

31.4mm so far.

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My average is 11.1°C for the first 7 days. That's 5.1°C above the MetO derived average for my area. Rainfall at 73.2mm.

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We're on 7.9C (+2.3C) to the 8th.

Its certainly looking like another 'one of those' Decembers. It's 8 years since we had any measurable snow in December now.

Still, after such a settled and dry period from May - mid-November I can't say I'm surprised with what we're getting at the moment.

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The 00z GFS had been showing a colder turn by Christmas and using the John Holmes rule (compare models time for time not consecutively) I am waiting to see what the next 00z run shows, the book is not closed yet on colder values of CET although I would agree that other model runs support something above 6.0 into late December.

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A slight drop today Sunny Sheffield at 7.9C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall mounting up at 48.4mm 55.7% of the monthly average. Today is looking like the first dry day since the 15th of November although rain has been mentioned overnight which will scupper that. Local forecast is showing above average figures courtesy of mild nights until Thursday and Friday then turning milder on Saturday.  So it's likely any drops in the daytime average will be countered by a rise in the nighttime temperatures. So I'm not expecting any major drops until end of the week. However plenty of unceratinity about the cold to the east however we all know that once a change to milder conditions are indicated within a reasonable time frame it's very rarely that Models don't home in on this. Sadly cold is the other way and can disappear at a very short time notice as anybody who can remember the failed beast from the east which got down to T120 and then all models ditched it overnight and we remained in the mild regime.

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8.4c to the 8th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.0c to the 5th

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8.4c to the 9th

3.4c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.0c to the 5th

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Cloudy Edmonton is at -11.9c to the 9th which is slightly below normal by 0.9c..expect that to rise above normal as we head into a mild next 7-10 days

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Sunny Sheffield with a slight drop to 7.8C +1.6C above normal. First dry day yesterday and looks like another one today. Rainfall this month still at 48.4mm 55.7% of the monthly average. Models have changed again with colder air moving into country so should get a steady faster drop unless everything changes again. At the moment no real cold air around but then no real mild weather either with temps looking mostly around average after this weekend. 

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The EWP tracker shows a similar precip total so far (to 8th) of 46 mm, so it's running a little ahead of a normal December pace so far. 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

On the CET side, I can report that if we have a mean above 8.0 through ten days, only 13 other years managed that, and several were at 8.2 so we would be near tenth place at 8.3. There were two additional years at 8.0 for a total of fifteen (out of 246 previous tries). 

Looking at the recent model output, I would say the CET is likely to fall slowly but steadily through the next two weeks and might be into the high fives by Christmas, certainly no higher than 6.0 by then. The Atlantic may be staying in the game but it is recycling colder air masses now and will increasingly do that each time it comes knocking, so a lot of the time we will be seeing daily means of 5-7 degrees. Then some runs have hinted at a few colder days than that. 

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8.2c to the 10th

3.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.0c to the 5th

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5.6c here to the 10th, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

8.0C to the 11th... +2.8 (5.9: +1.7)
7.9C to the 12th... +2.8 (5.9: +1.7)
7.5C to the 13th... +2.4 (3.2: -1.4)
7.1C to the 14th... +2.1 (1.6: -2.8)
6.9C to the 15th... +1.9 (4.5: -0.1)
6.8C to the 16th... +1.8 (4.9: +0.3)
6.7C to the 17th... +1.8 (6.0: +1.6)
6.7C to the 18th... +1.8 (6.4: +2.0)
6.7C to the 19th... +1.8 (6.4: +2.1)
6.6C to the 20th... +1.8 (5.5: +1.8)

A much cooler outlook compared to last week, but still a little above average overall.

Dec10.thumb.JPG.d0260c269fe47870db28cb5215f11622.JPG   Dec10MM.thumb.JPG.ba9be8bbb3f860e469b019995701e488.JPG

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Assuming the above is correct, which I accept, then days ten to sixteen on the same run turn colder with an approximate mean of 3.5 during the period (could be near zero from the 24th to 26th). That would take the CET by 27th to 5.8 (6.6*20 + 3.5*7 = 156.5/27). If there's a bit more bite to that cold outbreak this could be projected as low as about 5.2 C. 

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Sunny Sheffield down to 7.7C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. Tonights run has the colder air coming in quicker but then leaving quicker with large 11C to 13C range in temperature on Saturday. That should effectively cancel out a few cold days that we will get this week. GFS 12oz generally milder than yesterdays run with little sign of any cold even in lala land. Odds 70 to 30 on a very mild December to me. 

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