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Roger J Smith

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

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11 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Thanks J10 for all that you do, I will be trying to get the EWP contest into an excel format this year to save people having to wade through those longish posts of scores. 

Above entries and revisions noted, will be posting the tables right at midnight for your edification. 

Fred, last month you had revised numbers with a two day late penalty in play, and I suggested going with the original forecasts. The precip forecast would have scored the same (a bit higher on your revision minus 0.4 late). The temperature forecast however would likely score about 10-15 places higher even with a late penalty thrown in. As you are outside the main contest scoring group (too few entries), I don't think it matters enough to put in an appeal, if you were like top ten in the overall contest then yes, and it's up to J10 anyway what to do with your Nov temp forecast, I will stick with the original precip forecast due to the lack of scoring differential. 

As to reasoning on my drop from 6.1 to 5.0, I was thinking the zonal would stay quite strong to 23rd then flip gradually to blocking, long enough to run up an average of about 6.5 but now I think from recent output the blocking may try to set up before the energy peak 21st-23rd which will deflate its warming ability and add colder days on either side. In fact I thought about going lower but concerned that it might be weak blocking at first. If I had to do January today, I would probably go 2.0 as a hopefully conservative punt. 🙂

 

 

Hi Roger

yep no probs although I did post to keep to original prior to penalty date....but as you say it is of little standing in the comp.  

I feel that blocking will establish prior to the peak phase thus my thoughts of ‘watch period’ over Xmas.  I’m very pleased seeing the model development appearing....a touch more momentum needed now please

 

BFTP

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CET forecasts

Numbers in brackets are order of final revised entry. This applies to EWP also.

Forecaster names are shortened to save space. Full table of entries will appear on 4th in scoring thread. 

------------- -------------- 

12.0 -- LG (8) ... 8.0 -- IRA252 (9)

 6.5 -- syed (6) ... 6.4 -- Froze (44) ... 6.3 -- Feb91 (36), Quick (48) ... 6.2 -- SLE (26)

 6.1 -- SteveB (31) ... 6.0 -- CPS (30), Pit (35)

 5.9 -- SF (5), Tim (17), viz (51), BFTV (52), star (61) ... 5.8 -- Don (55) ... 5.7 -- w-h (39)

 5.6 -- vir (29), SSun (41), jonboy (43) ... 5.5 -- JonF. (22), MWB (38)

 5.3 -- AWD (24), sea (50) ... 5.2 -- Dami (14), nn2013 (25), Norr (45) ... DSN -- 5.1 (47), KMan (62)

 5.0 -- RJS -- 5.0 (56) ... 4.9 -- Mulzy (46), avg 1988-2017 and consensus ... 4.8 -- wx26 (4), WWS (32)

 4.7 -- Kirk (20), stew (34), MIA (49), metal (57), BFTP (60) ... 4.6 -- Leo (2), SB (13), dave (59), avg 1981-2010 

 4.5 -- Dr(S)No (15), dww (19), DRL (27), J10 (37), 4.4 -- sray (58) ... 4.3 -- EdS (21), dan* (42)

 4.2 -- Bobd (10), Sing (53) ... 4.1 -- JeffC (16), MBay (28), Moor (40) ... 4.0 -- Pegg (12), OPr (23)

 3.9 -- LIS (3) ... 3.6 -- brm (33) ... 3.3 -- Rel (54) ... 3.1 -- Damlaw (18)

 2.7 -- PG (11) ... 2.4 -- RDen (7) ... 2.3 -- PSL (1)

____________________________________

62 on-time entries, median (consensus) 4.9 C

============================================

EWP forecasts

200 -- LG (4) ... 172 -- IRA252 (22) ... 132 -- vir (20) ... 131 -- BFTV (39) ... 130 -- SteveB (21)

124 -- star (45) ... 122 -- Don (42) ... 122 -- stew (24) ... 120.2 -- RJS (15) ... 120.0 -- Metal (43)

117 -- Feb91 (26) ... 115 -- BFTP (31) ... 114 -- Sing (40) ... 110 -- w-h (28), jonboy (32)

108 -- viz (38) ... 107 -- sea (37) ... 100.1 -- avg 1988-2017 ... 100 -- Dr(S)No (9), EdS (13), J10 (27), DSN (35)  

 99 -- Mulzy (34) ... 98.4 -- SLE (16) consensus ... 97.4 -- avg 1981-2010 ... 97 -- Moor (29)

 95 -- Norr (33), dave (44) ... 90 -- dan* (30), MIA (36) ... 89 -- SF (18) ... 88 -- JeffC (10)

 78 -- AWD (14) ... 77 -- Tim (11) ... 75 -- CPS (19), Pit (25) ... 74.6 -- brm (23)

 70 -- syed (2), DRL (17) ... 69.4 -- Kirk (12) ... 68 -- wx26 (1) ... 60 -- Rel (41)

 57.3 -- PG (6) ... 57 -- Pegg (7) ... 55 -- Bobd (5) ... 45 -- Dami (8) ... 36 -- RDen (3)

_________________________________________________

45 on time entries, consensus 98.4 mm

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CET 5.8C, EWP 103mm.  I reckon that mild and wet weather early and late in December will outweigh a cold spell in the middle.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Oops a bit late this month....

Mild and wet:

6.0C and 120mm.

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9 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

lettuceing gutted will be winning certainly after 1st few days, 

HA HA HA - 12.0!!!!!      -    Anyway, i am really determined to win this year - TBH the seasonal winter one is closest to my heart - obviously the yearly one is like being world number 1 in tennis, golf or snooker etc, IMO though the winter one is the most prestigious, its like Winning the world championship in snooker or probably more accurately, its like winning Wimbledon, the other seasonal ones are still major's but the winter one just takes the biscuit. Individual monthly wins are a bit like winning a Grand Prix in Formula 1, its a very big thing even if you finish 200 pts behind the world champion, its still a big thing in isolation.

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This month, starting a new feature with the old familiar CET, cumulative CET and daily records, now also showing the highest and lowest running CET values to each date. For the first these are equal to the daily records and for the 31st they are the warmest and coldest Decembers. In between, it's the same concept as Summer Sun's daily report, and can be compared to the column headed "CET cum" giving the 1981-2010 mean value of same statistics.

 

1981-2010 CET normals and daily records (1772 to 2017)

 ____________________ Daily record values _______ Extremes of running CET

DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN _______ MAX _______ MIN

01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947) ____ 12.1 (1775) __ --3.0 (1947)

02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796) ____ 11.1 (1775) __ --3.4 (1796)

03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879) ____ 10.9 (1985) __ --3.1 (1879)

04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925) _10.9 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844) ____ 10.6 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844) ____ 10.7 (1898) __ --3.3 (1879)

07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879) ____ 10.3 (2015) __ --3.64(1879)

08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807) ____ 10.4 (2015) __ --3.65(1879)

09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803) ____ 10.1 (2015) __ --3.2 (1879)

10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784) ____ 9.9 (1979, 2015)_--2.8 (1879)

11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784) ____ 9.7 (1898,2000)_--2.8 (1879)

12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981) _____ 9.9 (2000) __ --2.7 (1879)

 13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981) _____ 9.7 (2000) __ --2.4 (1879)

14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878) _____ 9.4 (2000) __ --2.1 (1879)

15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788) _____ 9.2 (1898) __ --1.6 (1879)

16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) _____ 9.1 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) _____ 9.3 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) _____ 9.5 (2015) __ --1.2 (1879)

19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1879)

20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __--0.9 (1878,79)

21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1878, 2010)

24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (1878)

25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _--10.8 (1796) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.5 (1878)

26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.4 (1878, 2010)

27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.4 (2010)

28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (2010)

29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (2010)

30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870) _____ 9.8 (2015) __ --0.9 (2010)

31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --0.8 (1890)

________________________________________________________________ 

So from this we see that 2015 had one crack at being warmest Dec (7th to 10th), fell out of first place for a while, then resumed the lead from 16th to end of month. The closest to 2015 that any year came after the 20th was 8.7 (1898 - 21st). As for 2010, it moved into first by the 21st, had a running battle with 1878, shook that off but got nipped at the very end by 1890 which never held the lead at any other stage. Other noteworthy late negative running CET values would include 1788 which was -0.4 on 23rd and -0.3 on 30th-31st, 1796 which was running at -1.0 from 26th to 28th, 1844 which was -0.2 on 25th, 1879 held on at -0.4 to 25th, and more recently 1981 was running at -0.2 from 24th to 27th (finished 0.3). 

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8.5c to the 1st

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

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Probably go over 10c today, balmy mild night, nowhere got under 10c, and today we are seeing temps of 13-15c widely at 12.00.🤔

I was tempted to go for a very mild 6.6c but at the last minute I thought I'd take my chance with this upcoming cold snap coming to fruition, and possibly turning into something a little more memorable. More a case of hopecasting that anything else if I'm honest, anyway ended up going for the 4,4c that no one had picked and was tempting me with this little voice saying...pick me, pick me.....☺️

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21 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8.5c to the 1st

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

guessed half agree too low, after 1st day anyway, I do expect it to rise a bit, Wed looking balmy

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9.6c to the 2nd

4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd

Current low this month 8.5c to the 1st

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46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

9.6c to the 2nd

4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd

Current low this month 8.5c to the 1st

Flipping heck!

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That 9.6 running CET is the 13th warmest out of the 247 available for comparison, those warmer or above 9.0 ended up as follows (with eventual ranks shown):

1775 (11.1) finished on 4.5 (t-149)

1979 (11.0) finished on 5.8 (t-55)

1876 (10.6) finished on 6.0 (t-46)

1974 (10.6) finished on 8.1 (t-2)

1939 (10.3) finished on 3.2 (t-257)

1985 (10.3) finished on 6.3 (t-34)

1842 (10.1) finished on 7.2 (t-12)

2000 (10.1) finished on 5.8 (t-55)

2015 (10.0) finished on 9.7 (1)

1857 (9.9) finished on 7.3 (t-10)

2006 (9.8) finished on 6.5 (t-26)

1873 (9.7) finished on 5.3 (t-87)

______ 2018 (9.6) ______

1954 (9.5) finished on 6.8 (t-19)

1838 (9.5) finished on 4.0 (t-185)

1898 (9.3) finished on 7.3 (t-10)

1918 (9.2) finished on 6.9 (t-15)

1992 (9.0) finished on 3.6 (t-218)

_____________________________

Thus for the 17 cases that were 9.0 or warmer in the past, the median finishing point was 5.8 degrees.

The range was between warmest December 2015 (9.7) and 1939 (3.2). 

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I just posted the updated tables of entries,

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10

assuming no more to be submitted by absolute deadline of midnight this evening, if any do appear, will try to edit them in. 

Of the 66 CET and 47 EWP forecasts submitted, consensus values are just about same as recent normals, 5.0 C and 99 mm. 

Good luck ! 

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9.6c to the 3rd

4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.5c to the 1st

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

8.3C to the 4th... +2.4 (4.4: -1.7)
8.1C to the 5th... +2.2 (7.5: +1.4)
8.6C to the 6th... +2.8 (10.6: +5.6)
9.1C to the 7th... +3.4 (12.1: +7.3) [Record High 12.3C in 1856]
9.0C to the 8th... +3.5 (8.3: +3.9)
8.7C to the 9th... +3.3 (6.5: +2.0)
8.0C to the 10th... +2.8 (2.1: -2.2)
7.4C to the 11th... +2.3 (1.5: -2.7)
6.9C to the 12th... +1.8 (0.7: -3.5)
6.4C to the 13th... +1.4 (1.0: -3.6)

The CET looks set to rise the next towards the weekend before plummeting early next week. In the meantime, a chance of seeing yet another warm record go on Friday.

DEC3.thumb.JPG.1738e54d79eb7ad196402ef9e844833c.JPG  DEC3MM.thumb.JPG.ac23e52c80a3031e0dbe3e587b17a4f3.JPG

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8.2c to the 4th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.2c to the 4th

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I was hoping for the 1st three days coming out over 10c, that would have been something...Just short. 🤔

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6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8.2c to the 4th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.2c to the 4th

0.2 out so far my guess

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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5.0c here to the 4th, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

19.2mm of rainfall so far.

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The highest December CET following a June of 16.0C and greater is 5.8C 

We'll see if this December can surpass this.

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8.0c to the 5th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 9.6c to the 2nd & 3rd

Current low this month 8.0c to the 5th

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