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Roger J Smith

December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions

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Touch call to make 4.3C thanks a shift around mid month again easterlies?

rainfall 90mm

Edited by Daniel*

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On 25/11/2018 at 23:47, Roger J Smith said:

6.1 and 120.2 mm rain (will include some snow near end as it starts to turn a lot colder)

I think the CET won’t tell the whole story. 5.7c  115mm.   Could see stark differences in temps with cold initially not being able to hold on in the south initially, different story up north.  Impactual cold/snowy UK wide last week to 10 days

 

BFTP

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I'll go for a CET of 6.3C, generically mild with the odd colder interlude behind passing low pressure systems. A stormy month with something calmer after christmas.

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Nearly forgot again.

Just reading Feb91 talking about the monthly comp in the MO thread and suddenly remembered.

Difficult to call really, colder in north warmer in south for first part, could go either way towards the end.

5.3c

107mm.

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Daring to go for 4.2*C in the face of the shorter-term model output. Along with 114 mm for precipitation please. Note my terminology there 😉.

Come on penetrating frosts or freezing winds later in the month, I need you! ❄️

 

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Very tricky as always but I'm going for a milder and wetter than average December with a CET of 5.8C and 125mm.

I believe there is likely to be only short cold snaps, mainly affecting the northern half of the country producing some transient snow events.  I do not expect to see any of the white stuff in my back yard this month!

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Just making up the tables of entries, think I am going down from previous guess of 6.1 to 5.0 on the CET

... with that, we have 58 entries so far and the median (consensus) value is 4.95, currently available (no forecasts yet) include 4.4, 3.8, 3.7, 3.5, 3.4, 3.2 and 3.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.5 then with low forecast at 2.3, 2.2 down to absolute zero (a really quiet Sun). Also everything above 6.5 except for 8.0 and 12.0 are free. 

... so far there are 43 EWP forecasts, the median (consensus) is 99.0 mm. That is almost exactly average so some divided opinion about how long the wet trend might last. 

Will post the abbreviated version of table of entries here at midnight (final version with late entries in scoring thread on the 4th of December). 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Just making up the tables of entries, think I am going down from previous guess of 6.1 to 5.0 on the CET

Roger

that’s a faur drop.  What’s your thought process? I was surprised you went that high.  

Revise me to 4.7c

BFTP 

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Remember to enter before midnight, not to have a point penalty, however I am proposing to halve these penalties this year as not to be too excessive.

Proposed New Penalties
Day 1 =   5pts
Day 2 = 10pts
Day 3 = 15pts

All other scores will remain the same with the Maximum score continuing to be 500pts.

Thanks to everyone for their continued support for these competitions.

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Thanks J10 for all that you do, I will be trying to get the EWP contest into an excel format this year to save people having to wade through those longish posts of scores. 

Above entries and revisions noted, will be posting the tables right at midnight for your edification. 

Fred, last month you had revised numbers with a two day late penalty in play, and I suggested going with the original forecasts. The precip forecast would have scored the same (a bit higher on your revision minus 0.4 late). The temperature forecast however would likely score about 10-15 places higher even with a late penalty thrown in. As you are outside the main contest scoring group (too few entries), I don't think it matters enough to put in an appeal, if you were like top ten in the overall contest then yes, and it's up to J10 anyway what to do with your Nov temp forecast, I will stick with the original precip forecast due to the lack of scoring differential. 

As to reasoning on my drop from 6.1 to 5.0, I was thinking the zonal would stay quite strong to 23rd then flip gradually to blocking, long enough to run up an average of about 6.5 but now I think from recent output the blocking may try to set up before the energy peak 21st-23rd which will deflate its warming ability and add colder days on either side. In fact I thought about going lower but concerned that it might be weak blocking at first. If I had to do January today, I would probably go 2.0 as a hopefully conservative punt. 🙂

 

 

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