The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[feb1991blizzard]

Impressive mean 192 - some potential 80s redux's in the suite or will be by 384.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Impressive mean 192 - some potential 80s redux's in the suite or will be by 384.

This is the MEAN at 228 hrs...

To me that is suggestive of heights being sucked N through the UK in developing Scandi heights

[Mike Poole]

FV3 already looks better to me at T186: here, with 12z at same time:

Actually considering the FV3 12z was decent, think this one will be an upgrade.  The take from the evening runs is the push of heights from the Atlantic to, well either Scandi or Greenland, we'll see but from where I'm sitting, it's all good!

Edited November 27, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

Good news...

The Svalbard anomaly is still there and slightly intensified from the same point last run

There must be some good runs in that lot...going to have a gander now.

Edited November 27, 2018 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 already looks better to me at T186: here, with 12z at same time after:

Actually considering the FV3 12z was decent, think this one will be an upgrade.  The take from the evening runs is the push of heights from the Atlantic to, well either Scandi or Greenland, we'll see but from where I'm sitting, it's all good!

 

Yes it is better out to 186.

Blocking to the NE much close and Atlantic more amplified.

Could be a bit of bed time cheer.

EDIT

Very frustrating FI, the amount of Atlantic forcing in low res seems OTT even if it gets there eventually but other than missing out on some eye candy it doesn't really matter.

It was pretty good out to 192 and fairly consistent with the 12z

Edited November 27, 2018 by Mucka

[Mike Poole]

FV3 18z gone right into the pole now from our vicinity, don't think the vortex will be ruling the roost for us any time soon.  (That's not to say other things couldn't go wrong.)  T252 and T300:

Yes, none of these charts give UK cold, but that isn't the point, the point is a completely bandaxed polar vortex, disruption to it in spades  Good night everyone!

Edited November 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

Just perusing the 18z - looks fair I guess, models homing in on some amplifcatiom day 8 onwards - EPS a little flatter, havent seen the 18Z GEFS...

Edited November 28, 2018 by Paul

[Mucka]

GFS/UKMO 00z 144

I guess it is plausible the Atlantic low sitting to the West could give something wintry should the transient Northerly from the trough feed in enough cold air.

A bit far out for that kind of detail but worth a sniff

Edited November 28, 2018 by Mucka

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just for a bit of fun and not to be taken seriously, at this range. Saw the CFS for Xmas Day, last night and had an immediate "flashback" to December 1981.

DEC.7th.1981

The weather associated with the above chart, ushered in that memorable cold spell, which lasted right up until the Xmas holiday period. I lived in Camberwell S.E.London at the time. A "runner" developed S.E of Iceland and tracked S,E, towards Ireland.Heavy rain, "turned" to heavy snow at breakfast time and caused transport disruption throughout the South East. See below for a description of that severe, wintry spell, which lasted from the 8th to the 27th December.This  taken from Trevor Harley's excellent British Weather, website:

"1981 A wonderful month: the coldest this century (0.3C CET), and also very snowy. It started and ended mild, but there was a severe wintry spell from the 8th to the 27th. As the month started a warm front moving around a large high SW of Ireland brought temperatures of 15C to Aberdeen on the 3rd. As the high slipped away cold fronts brought progressively colder air south. Very cold air with hail and snow reached Shetland on the 4th. A depression moved southeast across the country on the 7th, bringing some very cold air south after it. A high developed over Greenland. Rain turned to heavy snow, with a sharp temperature fall, on the 8th; here was transport havoc in London following the snow. There was freezing fog on the 10th. There were some exceptional temperatures in a northerly airflow. On the 11th, the minimum around Glasgow was -13C, and the maximum the next day only -5C. As a low crossed northern France on the 11th, there was widespread heavy snowfall in the south (26 cm at Heathrow). Clearing skies, fresh snow, still air, Arctic air, all add up to one thing: very low temperatures. Hence the following night it was even colder: the minimum at Shawbury (Shrops.) was -22.6C on the night of the 11-12th, a maximum of -12.1C the following day, and then a minimum of -25.1C on the night of the 12-13th. It was already down to -22C by 6pm on the 12th! This was the lowest reading in December this century until 1995. I remember we sat around cheering the termperature down those nights. Temperatures of -20C were quite widespread. Another depression gave a real blizzard (snow and wind speeds of 95 mph in the south west) on the 13th. A storm surge up the Bristol Channel led to extensive flooding. The Queen had to stay the night in a local pub in the Cotswolds as rocks were blocked. By this time there were 10" of snow in London, and 3' drifts at Hawes in the Yorkshire Dales. There were gales and flooding in the south on the 14th as it turned slightly milder, with gales and rain and a rapid thaw. More snow on high ground in the west on the 15th-16th, and in Scotland on the 17th. Flooding in the Bristol Channel area.High winds added to the widespread disruption: on the 19th the Penlee lifeboat capsized, with the loss of 16 hands. (A reminder that however much we enjoy severe weather, it can be tragic for some.) The weather then turned cold again, with more snow, particularly on the 20th in the east. There was snow on the ground, but no snow fall on the 25th, so not a technical white Christmas. There was a lot of dense freezing fog around. Snow lay for three weeks in many places.

CFS CHART XMAS DAY 2018

The above chart a remarkable similarity, to December 1981. Although the High Pressure, perhaps a tad too, "Bowling Ball", to be sucked up towards, Greenland. Dec.1981, was especially wintry from the Midlands, northwards. An unusual synoptic pattern ensued, after the 8th. The south had a milder interlude but the north was entreched in the bitter air.

We were surrounded by Atlantic lows but although they tried they failed to dislodge the entrenched cold until just after, Xmas Day. The breakthrough of the Atlantic, as Trevor Harley suggests, finally started to take place on the 27th.

27th DEC.1981.

Now, I'm not suggesting this pattern will evolve into reality but it struck me how similar, those two charts are. Would be an exciting way to finish off Christmas Day, though!! 

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited November 28, 2018 by TomSE12

[northwestsnow]

GFS 00z makes a few attempts at az high ridging north but we can't seem to shut the procession of Atlantic lows off, ukmo and gfs look quite similar at 144.

[ArHu3]

2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

 

Now, I'm not suggesting this pattern will evolve into reality but it struck me how similar, those two charts are. Would be an exciting way to finish off Christmas Day, though!! 

Regards,

Tom. 

Too bad meteociel doesn't have maps with mercator projections because then it would become more obvious that our weather originates from waves out of the tropics. So comparing similarities on the Europe view or even the NH view means little 

 

Have a look at Anthony Masiello Twitter stream, he often posts nice animation of such waves (@antmasiello): https://twitter.com/antmasiello?s=09

Edited November 28, 2018 by ArHu3

[blizzard81]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 00z makes a few attempts at az high ridging north but we can't seem to shut the procession of Atlantic lows off, ukmo and gfs look quite similar at 144.

Nothing in the output this morning to change my thoughts. Lows barrelling out of the US. The ecm has been really consistent on this. As long as this carries on there is no way to cold for the UK. 

[bluearmy]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 00z makes a few attempts at az high ridging north but we can't seem to shut the procession of Atlantic lows off, ukmo and gfs look quite similar at 144.

Frustrating isn’t it!  Until the modelling get the polar field right, then the rest of the NH is also going to be wrong as a consequence (due to the splitting of the vortex and subsequent behaviour of those two parts). Add in some meandering discarded chunks and fi phasing will be modelled where it won’t occur etc etc ......

a couple more days of patience required .....hopefully not too many more before we ge some weeek 2 consistency ...... still 50/50 imo

[Seasonality]

GFS is trending towards squeezing the mild snap for my location. Currently looking like only two days of mild weather then resumption of normal service. And hopefully snow for my daughter's birthday. All subject to change though this far out. 

[Les Penniston]

2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Just for a bit of fun and not to be taken seriously, at this range. Saw the CFS for Xmas Day, last night and had an immediate "flashback" to December 1981.

DEC.7th.1981

The weather associated with the above chart, ushered in that memorable cold spell, which lasted right up until the Xmas holiday period. I lived in Camberwell S.E.London at the time. A "runner" developed S.E of Iceland and tracked S,E, towards Ireland.Heavy rain, "turned" to heavy snow at breakfast time and caused transport disruption throughout the South East. See below for a description of that severe, wintry spell, which lasted from the 8th to the 27th December.This  taken from Trevor Harley's excellent British Weather, website:

"1981 A wonderful month: the coldest this century (0.3C CET), and also very snowy. It started and ended mild, but there was a severe wintry spell from the 8th to the 27th. As the month started a warm front moving around a large high SW of Ireland brought temperatures of 15C to Aberdeen on the 3rd. As the high slipped away cold fronts brought progressively colder air south. Very cold air with hail and snow reached Shetland on the 4th. A depression moved southeast across the country on the 7th, bringing some very cold air south after it. A high developed over Greenland. Rain turned to heavy snow, with a sharp temperature fall, on the 8th; here was transport havoc in London following the snow. There was freezing fog on the 10th. There were some exceptional temperatures in a northerly airflow. On the 11th, the minimum around Glasgow was -13C, and the maximum the next day only -5C. As a low crossed northern France on the 11th, there was widespread heavy snowfall in the south (26 cm at Heathrow). Clearing skies, fresh snow, still air, Arctic air, all add up to one thing: very low temperatures. Hence the following night it was even colder: the minimum at Shawbury (Shrops.) was -22.6C on the night of the 11-12th, a maximum of -12.1C the following day, and then a minimum of -25.1C on the night of the 12-13th. It was already down to -22C by 6pm on the 12th! This was the lowest reading in December this century until 1995. I remember we sat around cheering the termperature down those nights. Temperatures of -20C were quite widespread. Another depression gave a real blizzard (snow and wind speeds of 95 mph in the south west) on the 13th. A storm surge up the Bristol Channel led to extensive flooding. The Queen had to stay the night in a local pub in the Cotswolds as rocks were blocked. By this time there were 10" of snow in London, and 3' drifts at Hawes in the Yorkshire Dales. There were gales and flooding in the south on the 14th as it turned slightly milder, with gales and rain and a rapid thaw. More snow on high ground in the west on the 15th-16th, and in Scotland on the 17th. Flooding in the Bristol Channel area.High winds added to the widespread disruption: on the 19th the Penlee lifeboat capsized, with the loss of 16 hands. (A reminder that however much we enjoy severe weather, it can be tragic for some.) The weather then turned cold again, with more snow, particularly on the 20th in the east. There was snow on the ground, but no snow fall on the 25th, so not a technical white Christmas. There was a lot of dense freezing fog around. Snow lay for three weeks in many places.

CFS CHART XMAS DAY 2018

The above chart a remarkable similarity, to December 1981. Although the High Pressure, perhaps a tad too, "Bowling Ball", to be sucked up towards, Greenland. Dec.1981, was especially wintry from the Midlands, northwards. An unusual synoptic pattern ensued, after the 8th. The south had a milder interlude but the north was entreched in the bitter air.

We were surrounded by Atlantic lows but although they tried they failed to dislodge the entrenched cold until just after, Xmas Day. The breakthrough of the Atlantic, as Trevor Harley suggests, finally started to take place on the 27th.

27th DEC.1981.

Now, I'm not suggesting this pattern will evolve into reality but it struck me how similar, those two charts are. Would be an exciting way to finish off Christmas Day, though!! 

Regards,

Tom. 

Thanks for the above post great memories the 7th was a Monday had a week in Buxton [with school] the snow they got was great to see compared to living on the east coast bar the beast from the east. The 13th we had a blizzard in Lincolnshire the snow was on the ground till boxing day, back then was a case of watching the BBC weather after the news and listening to Radio 4. Regarding the modules i remember the forecasters saying about knife edge situations back then saying the mild would push through but the cold stayed and was prolonged.

Interesting to see whats happening now but sometimes in my years of watching the cold can come unexpectedly and produce something great so lets hope so.

 

Les 

[Tim Bland]

Seems we have lost the consistency for height rises through the U.K. up to Scandi from GFs(p) Scotland would be battered! 

[mulzy]

No point sugar coating things, the NWP is truly dire this morning.  Zonal for the foreseeable.  Let's hope for a pattern change in the second half of December!

[frosty ground]

25 minutes ago, mulzy said:

No point sugar coating things, the NWP is truly dire this morning.  Zonal for the foreseeable.  Let's hope for a pattern change in the second half of December!

Pretty much everything is west to east as you say this morning.The only bright spot is the downward trend on the ensembles in the 10-15 day range.

Probably north westerly (spells)  is the form horse during this zonal spell

 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

No point sugar coating things, the NWP is truly dire this morning.  Zonal for the foreseeable.  Let's hope for a pattern change in the second half of December!

The sheer ferocity of the jet has actually taken me by suprise..

The speed at which these lows are hurtling across the Atlantic is leaving little chance of amplification in the Atlantic sector.

Whats bothering me is the potential colder drier phase is beginning to look like its on shaky ground too!

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

Best we can do at 5th December frontal battle for the Cheviots  - N Pennines.

[Met4Cast]

EPS Day 13 looking a little flatter this morning, it's certainly moved away from the height rises across Scandi though good to see the Arctic high signal remaining/strengthening

GEFS a little more amplified across Scandi for the same time period

Still lots of uncertainty going forward, I doubt that's going to change anytime soon.

[Spanish Dani]

I think MET was saying dry and colder for middle December but now not looking likely from these models.

[johnholmes]

I doubt this will be very popular in here but to me there is little chance of any deep cold in the next 2 weeks. That is unless the charts shown below are anything close to reality.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Looking a bit further and the MJO looks unlikely to offer any help for cold with its actual and forecast (GFS) too close to the origin.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

For cold lovers don't get too down as the weather is very good at making fools of any of us. Also it would not be the first time that very quick changes in upper air patterns have occurred. 

[shaky]

Absolutely atrocious charts this morning to the point where i am so tempted to not even bother looking at the charts for the next 2 or 3 weeks!!bog standard westerly winds for the uk and of anyone thought the 00zs were bad then dont even attempt to take a look at the 06z cos its a horror show up to 240 hours so far!!just so glad its still november and not january!!i live in hope that charts change all of a sudden in the next few days but its really is looking a long shot right now!!ah well the boring wind and rain we gona have to do with right now!!

[ICE COLD]

Even I’m struggling to find anything positive in the hunt for cold today . It’s all looking a bit horrid this morning . Time for a break from model watching . Burnt out already .

Edited November 28, 2018 by ICE COLD