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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Can't help but notice that blocking high over the Pole on that chart . 🙂

And seems to be the only model which wants to spawn a little LP into north Africa. This seems to shunt the Azores west primed for that ridge obviously...

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Not much point looking past T144 at the moment , it’s all over the place . Look how different day 10 is tonight on the ECM 12z , to what it was on the 00Z . 

248AED9D-78C8-4A18-BB05-BDFFC24DDF5E.png

3CC2D560-143D-4430-909E-07FF5BDA8BA9.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Nothing too special by the end of the ecm run - toppler. Saw a lot of these in the early noughties. 

ECH1-240 (1).gif

Yup. I know the majority of us are cold hunters but realistically we are chasing ‘potential’ at the moment, Arctic heights are continually prevelant but it’s not always a good thing for us as it can force the vortex into unfavourable positions, the charts for the majority look damp and putrid unfortunately

That being said it’s only November, could be worse.

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8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Nothing too special by the end of the ecm run - toppler. Saw a lot of these in the early noughties. 

ECH1-240 (1).gif

I'd bite your hand off for a proper N'ly toppler. Not even seen one of them in yonks. The last really snowy NW'ly episode here was March 2006. Obviously Christmas Day 2004 stands out too. 

That chart doesn't show a N'ly toppler.

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That’s about as much use as a chocolate fireguard to us all the way over there. Good job it’s at D10

😀

Karlos, look what effect that has though, flip between 216 and 240. It could be the catalyst for a more western Azores ridge.

I know, wishful thinking but only relaying what I am seeing.

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As far as single charts go in FI ECM 240 is not what I would want to see but comparing it to yesterdays 12z also shows that 1 chart does not a winter make.

ECH1-240.GIF?27-0ECH1-216.GIF?12

Not going to pretend today has not been a bit of let down (for my expectations, which weren't that high actually) but onwards to tomorrow.

Edited by Mucka

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I like this mean 

EDH1-240.GIF?27-0

Look at the size of that huge Russian ridge. Pretty sure that is usually a SSW precursor

Splits are more likely after pacific blocking, displacements after Atlantic blocking, not sure what this would count as

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Just now, togwotee pass said:

I think there are 51 members(?)

Sometimes an ECM op run can be an outlier but still draw a decent sized cluster to it 'artificially' which would be a significantly smaller cluster were the OP not to have thrown out that particular solution.

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not much point looking past T144 at the moment , it’s all over the place . Look how different day 10 is tonight on the ECM 12z , to what it was on the 00Z . 

248AED9D-78C8-4A18-BB05-BDFFC24DDF5E.png

3CC2D560-143D-4430-909E-07FF5BDA8BA9.jpeg

when is there ever any point in looking past T144?......possible trends?.......maybe, but it's a big maybe.........charts past this time frame rarely verify, but hey, it keeps this thread busy as the hunt for future cold continues it's inexorable winding path

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I like this mean 

EDH1-240.GIF?27-0

Look at the size of that huge Russian ridge. Pretty sure that is usually a SSW precursor. We could still be on for that late Dec SSW

Its certainly not the disaster it looks at first glance, anyway though, im not sure how much stock i place in it (Yet).

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I like this mean 

EDH1-240.GIF?27-0

Look at the size of that huge Russian ridge. Pretty sure that is usually a SSW precursor. We could still be on for that late Dec SSW

That mean certainly doesn't suggest a pattern change for us anytime soon though, maybe chance of an Atlantic ridge toward mid Dec

 

 

Edited by Mucka

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3 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

when is there ever any point in looking past T144?......possible trends?.......maybe, but it's a big maybe.........charts past this time frame rarely verify, but hey, it keeps this thread busy as the hunt for future cold continues it's inexorable winding path

When it’s showing cold only I’m led to believe 🤣🤣

Edited by karlos1983

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I like this mean 

EDH1-240.GIF?27-0

Look at the size of that huge Russian ridge. Pretty sure that is usually a SSW precursor. We could still be on for that late Dec SSW

Tell me if i am way off the mark but that would mean we would be hoping for the cold to inject from the north or north west

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52 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

8EF20F2D-0FB0-4D25-96CE-B0A6AF2F41F8.thumb.jpeg.9da848fd54196c8eecaa02caffc576fe.jpeg

The isoline thats in England traces back to Scandi.

Small observation and for my own sake and understanding (or misunderstanding as case may be) isn't that chart showing the isoline that's in Scandi traces BACK to England? That's a weak anticyclonic feature going clockwise from a view of the wider chart? 

JC

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15 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Tell me if i am way off the mark but that would mean we would be hoping for the cold to inject from the north or north west

We wouldn't be seeing cold soon after that chart but from a foundations viewpoint for deeper into December it is a decent mean. 

What you see is mean westerlies (zonal flow) hit the buffers to our E as the jet meets the huge Russian block. The jet then has to loop steeply N at the point of interaction with this block. This has the effect of sending latent heat into the Arctic from the mid latitudes. A little while later, the PV can, in effect, destroy itself. 

It's essentially the pattern I wanted to see earlier on in November.

I do think we're now looking mid-late December at the earliest for anything of interest though.

 

Edited by CreweCold

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gfs-0-384.png?12

Crossing fingers that this trend continues but just too far out right now. Still possible though

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Nothing much to cheer this evening. This is as bad as it gets for coldies with a zonal outlook very hard to break. 

EDM1-240.GIF?27-0

 

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Just now, The Eagle said:

Nothing much to cheer this evening. This is as bad as it gets for coldies with a zonal outlook very hard to break. 

EDM1-240.GIF?27-0

 

Looks a little bleak but I have to say EC has been tipping to zonal a lot lately and hasn't always been right

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

Nothing much to cheer this evening. This is as bad as it gets for coldies with a zonal outlook very hard to break. 

EDM1-240.GIF?27-0

 

That is not as bad as it gets by any stretch of the imagination. Firstly, you're using the Europe view (doesn't tell the whole story) and secondly, it could be MUCH worse with that HP anomaly further east across S Europe.

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Guest

Right so im confused.... is winter over?? are we doomed to zonal for the next 5 months? is the hunt for cold over for another year?? when will folk in here learn the lessons from the past, the Meto dont control the weather, lets not forget 2 winters ago when they were so certain of cold and snow they even put out a long range forecast on tv via BBC etc. the meto updates flip up and down quicker than a tarts knickers, nobody in here can say whats going to happen at the end of next week let alone the end of next month, i really do think we all just need to take a step back and realise that 2009/2010 and November/December 2010 were not the norm, very rare indeed. yes cold can often come to the UK but its never plain sailing, some of us are lucky enough to live in a part of the UK that is more prone to snaw than others but that is just the way it is. its not very often that the entire UK is covered in Snaw, thats just the way it is. ive enjoyed the last few weeks of model watching but the last few days have been very hard to bare with all the petty squabbling etc. come on guys and girls we are all here for the same thing, Snaw and record breaking cold, we do it every year and we must face facts that for many of us every year will let us down. if you dont like it just do what i did and move to a place that it snaws lots and lots.

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1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Right so im confused.... is winter over?? are we doomed to zonal for the next 5 months? is the hunt for cold over for another year?? when will folk in here learn the lessons from the past, the Meto dont control the weather, lets not forget 2 winters ago when they were so certain of cold and snow they even put out a long range forecast on tv via BBC etc.

I remember that one 😂

Taught me to never trust the EC46

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I remember that one 😂

Taught me to never trust the EC46

Exactly, so all the doom and gloom in here currently is not needed..

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