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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I Think the GFs(p) will lift the mood in here shortly. It’s actually showing some consistency now if you compare it to it’s 6z run 

AC8E62D8-945A-40AE-9CDD-80773503AC18.png

56394932-5064-4077-B27D-C0CE6CFE3BBA.png

Need to see these charts appear inside 120 hrs and the ensembles following to have any faith in them 💤

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5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

There is some manual adjustment necessary to these to inflate +ve height anomalies to the NE and reduce +ve height anomalies to the west of Greenland, but some westward pull of the man trough over the North Pacific is the key thing here. That allows any blocking to our NE to manifest itself, and would consolidate a monthly expectation for +ve height anomalies across Scandinavia. Either way, a challenge to any view of returning zonality at any point during December. 

 

Hi Stewart...

big call given the output at present.

What is driving the output we're seeing now? This is one big euro high anomaly in the GEFS given the range

gensnh-0-5-384.png

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hi Stewart...

big call given the output at present.

What is driving the output we're seeing now? This is one big euro high anomaly in the GEFS given the range

gensnh-0-5-384.png

did you mean to post the control aaron ???

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

did you mean to post the control aaron ???

Oooops, nope, thought I'd clicked on 'moy' !!

Well that's quite a relief.

The mean is not quite so bad

gensnh-21-5-384.png

🤣

Edited by CreweCold

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

..and the value of this approach ?

Q: how likely is GFS P t300 ?

gfsnh-12-312.thumb.png.eab88989c5652fb519a6d9717d267c04.png776682817_gwophase5dec.thumb.gif.83bb4a23246207687b5ec6e29ae0ec51.gif

A: based on reasoned assumptions, likely.

note that the gfsp and gfs are not so far apart at day 10 …. the gfsp gets mote amplitude on the ridge and doesn't blow up the atlantic low approaching T300 - result is undercutting rather than blowing away the block - i would like to see ec op picking up the ridging north as per gfs - ec is progressive with the Atlantic and fails to split the jet as much  

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This is a crucial timeframe - about 6 days out. See the shallow Atlantic low at 1010mb. The gfs parallel doesn't make much of it this run and this helps precipitate the great synoptics from day 10. The problem we have is the ecm was the first to pick up this low and has been hell bent on it being a spoiler feature over it's last few op runs. We need to see ecm make much less of this low on tonight's run. 

gfsnh-0-150 (1).png

Edited by blizzard81

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM delayed?

@Steve Murr making a final few adjustments before it rolls out i guess. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

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8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM delayed?

Sure fire sign of a barnstormer of a run coming up - ok maybe not! Lol

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Here are the GFS's T+384s...I do hope the para is right!

 

Netweather GFS Image     Netweather GFS Image

Apologies for my confusing post re 'experts'..I was referring to this: 

 

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This is going to be an interesting test between the gfs and gfs p. 

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4 hours ago, snowray said:

I But then again it does not take long for a month to go by if the Atlantic is driving things, 

IMO, it takes forever for a month to go by if the Atlantic is driving things... like a month of wet Sundays...

...and wet Mondays, wet Tuesdays, wet Wednesdays...!

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Just now, BleakMidwinter said:

IMO, it takes forever for a month to go by if the Atlantic is driving things... like a month of wet Sundays...

...and wet Mondays, wet Tuesdays, wet Wednesdays...!

If a weather pattern is going to get stuck, it's a miserable westerly. But then, that is our default position.

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While we are waiting for ECM may as well do some in depth analysis of GFS ensembles.

Looking at the 850 temps maybe a bit misleading if use them to consider a pattern change other than letting us know there is no upper cold is yet programmed.

graphe3_1000_265_88___.gif

However if we look at the pressure and ground temp charts we see signs of a pattern change.

graphe4_1000_265_88___.gif

We see a typical zonal pattern out to around 4th/5th Dec where upon we start to get a lot of scatter but the mean climbs and although it isn't a solid signal it never drops back down below the point it begins to climb.

And the 2m temps also suggest the flow will not be zonal falling away around the same period pressure rises which suggest high pressure will be close to or over the UK

graphe6_1000_265_88___.gif

We can also see a few colder runs appearing but the mean is around average to little below.

Edited by Mucka

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

graphe6_1000_265_88___.gif

We can also see a few colder runs appearing but the mean is around average to little below.

We need to remember that the temps will not be as warm as GFS predicts if the high pressure if centred over the top of us as we will likely get an inversion which means cold nights with frost and fog.

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26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Here are the GFS's T+384s...

Apologies for my confusing post re 'experts'..I was referring to this: 

 

Are you insinuating that Gav is not an expert 😳 ...wash your mouth out!! 

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35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

Apologies for my confusing post re 'experts'..I was referring to this: 

 

But he hasnt even done his winter forecast yet??

Or are you referring to the seasonal models as "experts"?

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1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

..and the value of this approach ?

Q: how likely is GFS P t300 ?

776682817_gwophase5dec.thumb.gif.83bb4a23246207687b5ec6e29ae0ec51.gifgfsnh-12-312.thumb.png.66ab24e208eadfb037d093794c36f85c.png

A: based on reasoned assumptions, likely.

GP why are the Met going for a milder run up to Xmas on their extended then ? 

Cheers

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