Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

OOuch - too far North.

ECH1-216_fgy1.GIF

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It will get squashed dont worry...

Sheared in situ!

LOL, I think it might be being squashed right now...ECM T216:

image.thumb.jpg.97d7003158da60e1dd4d3e7f29f46b30.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, looks good, but the low in the Atlantic is still too round...

image.thumb.jpg.2535d7da1c5de5a4e6d903b7423be685.jpg

That low is further SE than this morning,plus the pressure is higher over Greenland,as steve says it prob get squashed,elongated.

ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.0d002b8c588479837c0c20e715d65d05.pngECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.5727bc15a7413cb331e10c5be83dd856.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really close call at 216 hrs on ECM.its upthere with slider gate but just needs to drift South East 😚

Edited by swfc
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Look again...

Energy alligned SE of the UK

Only assuming the scandi troughing absorbs the atlantic low cleanly without making a meal of it, even then then we will need renewed push afterwards to get the coldest air to Southern UK.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much much better than i thought it would be!!game on!!look for upgrades on the gfs 18z!!could see sginificant snowfall from these sliders as long as they slide lol°!!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BINGO!!!

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.8005be7d1a4fa8b9971c2084798f1885.png

slack easterly winds at 240,somewhere will get a dumping.

ECU1-240.GIF.thumb.png.944216910cc4b4555fad15df8c8e91d8.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to admit I can't recall seeing a chart like the ECM T240 before:

image.thumb.jpg.11bc0319678d123850295ce0ff5c2f0b.jpg

It's like all the cold is shoved over to the east (from UK perspective). This has been seen on other model runs recently, but if it happened, I think this might open the door for an extreme winter...

 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

BINGO!!!

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.8005be7d1a4fa8b9971c2084798f1885.png

Hmmmm. Doesn’t look that great to me. I am still learning though. What is likely to happen on the next frame? Will heights build again up to Greenland. I’m a bit confused

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Hmmmm. Doesn’t look that great to me. I am still learning though. What is likely to happen on the next frame? Will heights build again up to Greenland. I’m a bit confused

potential battleground and snow dumpings

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Much much better than i thought it would be!!game on!!look for upgrades on the gfs 18z!!could see sginificant snowfall from these sliders as long as they slide lol°!!

10th Dec 2017, legend slider

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

10th Dec 2017, legend slider

That was defo a legendary slider!delivered 15-20cms widely across the midlands!!still think bout that slider to this day lol!!temps were at -3 before the snowfall began aswell!!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its always easy to read into the details of each run but the potential for a west based NAO to develop is certainly there and you can see that nicely on this ECM run. Either way, the UK largely stays on the polar side of the jet so it should remain on the cool/chilly side at least. 

The ECM also shows the GFS solution is not as far away as some members like to admit, that said, the same can be said for the other way round however one main theme remains and that is blocking to the North West. 

Still no real sign of any cold/snowy weather on the way either and it really is going to be one of those periods of patience and see where we go. I personally finding it quite interesting because something more cold and snowy could well get picked up in the medium term before we know it but so could milder weather so plenty of uncertainty for sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

May not be perfect but time is on our side a T240. The Greenland high could end up just about perfect when the weather god has made up his mind! (not the models, they will remain all over the place), what more do we want, come on this is a fantastic chart. Historic low coming up on the Layman's sunspot count remember.😉

ECH1-240.png

ECH0-240.png

Edited by snowray
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Won’t Be much snow away from Scotland with these uppers ? 

 

1BB37AEB-A926-492F-B722-EDBC965B5794.gif

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

That was defo a legendary slider!delivered 15-20cms widely across the midlands!!still think bout that slider to this day lol!!temps were at -3 before the snowfall began aswell!!

remember the up's and downs on here very well too, ended up being perfect for a change

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something clearer is now beginning to emerge. Lets take a look at the 12z output

image.thumb.png.639b7b7e1f5e554f41b3d44c2adca04c.png

The swingometers suggesting next Sunday will be rather cold with light winds and some cold uppers potentially loitering around.

The further south these sink the better because then we stand a chance of disrupting the incoming low. Two things can sway this in our favour. First the low to our west advances sluggishly allowing more time for western Europe to become colder. Or we get colder air in more quickly from the north. Trough disruption is key to preventing a return from the North Atlantic.

I've seen quite a few posts suggesting we should write off the GFS and bin it, we really shouldn't. When the GFS kept showing those big Greenland highs we were writing off the ECM but it was a little bit closer to the mark. We shouldn't write off the model that looks the worst, even if the GFS tends to deepen lows too much. The air leaving the NE of Canada is very cold and I got shot down by 1 or two for suggesting this may give the Atlantic spark to get going.

The potential for this is highlighted by the swingometers for December 1st which have shown more milder, Atlantic flows appearing in ensemble members.

image.thumb.png.2eedbd37ff4899b4dbb59396c57ff7e4.png

Thankfully though all is still to play for. Trough disruption will be the buzzword over the next few days I reckon. If that can happen we may hold back the Atlantic and get a snowfall if uppers are cold enough. The 12z ECM is a bit closer to the solution I'm looking for but the UK needs to be under colder uppers if we want a snowfall event out of the incoming low (decent run though).

Here are the temperature categories for the swingometers on Nov 25th and Dec 1st respectively

OP - Rather cold, non-descript (near normal for the UK taken as a whole)

Control - Rather cold, non-descript

Parallel- Rather cold, rather cold

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, AWD said:

Putting aside the pointless micro-detail of UK surface weather on the EC 240hr, chart (which won't verify like the chart suggests), the main note to take is a distinct lack of PV over Greenland & Canada.

With the PV camped out over the eastern half of the Northern hemisphere, there will be a distinct lack of "fuel" for the North Atlantic Jet Stream, suggestive of a continuation of the forecast blocked regime over the Atlantic sector of the Northern Hemisphere, providing Northwest Europe with further opportunities of colder, wintry weather as we enter winter proper.

Short term pain for long term gain and all that.

I think thats the encouraging thing for me at this moment, the PV over Canada in particular is going to weaken although this does open the door to the west based NAO as we can see however I don't think that is fully nailed on as of yet but a lack of PV over the states/Canada as you say means the jet stream is unlikely to power up and thus some sort of blocking should not go away. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...