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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just housekeeping tony ..........

Good work !

FWIW here is a composite of all November dates 22-20 of MJO 781 then out to individual days until December 10th P123, the wb NAO seems to be creeping up again and again... one to test the truth of when we have an atmosphere supportive of blocking with correct ingredients, whether the MJO can assist informing the set up of said blocks.

JMA the basis for the cut off in phases given their plot updated today 22-30 with longer view from ECM incoming tomorrow. It has slightly pivoted to GEFSBC solution but the question is will it again? Also how fast will it move through the Indian Ocean phases, p3 connecting to a strat event at lead time of c 25-30 days. ( not with standing the blocky outlook in the trop of 7-8-1 phases).

Interestingly I haven't noticed the amplification of the last couple of years which it appeared ECM was prone to show it's hand this season yet - correct me if not looking closely enough, wondering if they have rectified this bias.

image.thumb.png.49057c755c45f7c6ea958cfb08293c80.pngimage.thumb.png.df31156dda6640ba1f340b3a6300897a.png

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You need to note that the Icelandic ec 46 charts are less informative than the paywall version - not out yet.  And that clusters on ec46 aren’t available to us mere mortals .....

So what's the point in looking at them? lol

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You could ask that of most of the stuff discussed here !!!!!

I do often think the same myself 

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

Seen as it's quiet - am genuinely surprised this model is still around and that also it doesn't have a Social Media account...

image.thumb.png.d4c85bdf21acd07e515bc399f881d450.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

The re-invigoration of the canadian lobe is great!!..

And even the 10hpa(leveling)

.is a game changer!!..

The eur-asian quad thermo..is a kidding sector,imo)..

'Again' momentum and sync-are fraught with vortex 'damage' tropesphere'..'moreso'!!!

Wave1-..is a slap in the face..whereas wave2..is the punctures ×4tyre!!..

The pacific arm has always looked as the kidknapper- via vortex diss-align!.

And eurasian warm is the light year synop..

Dissplacement looks irregular..and so should be!..

The spillage unto mid/sometimes upper latts-is a classical winter synop-for short pain..long gain! .

And eyes 4 ridge placements should draw away from the greenland sheet..

And look to pac/and russian pen..formats..

Wow its working like clockwork...

Just on who's watch the time will tell!!

Tri lobe pv-looks a definitive notion!!

 

Blocking -golf ball shots..still of notion..

And in-note of el-wave breaker!!..

Sst's..

 

Pacific-annoms to become anouced/pronouced!!

gfsnh-10-384.png

gfs-10-204.png

gfsnh-0-384 (1).png

gfsnh-0-372.png

1panel_ghgs_obs_nh_nrm.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

And nor is the GFS 18z for around the same timescale - i know its 384 but the 12z GEFS were hinting at this, i didnt have time to go through them but im guessing by the mean, that there were a few in there similar to this.

gfsnh-0-384_qxq6.png

EDIT : and by the way that would be a guaranteed snowy Easterly if it went out further - not the tame effort we've just had.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And nor is the GFS 18z for around the same timescale - i know its 384 but the 12z GEFS were hinting at this, i didnt have time to go through them but im guessing by the mean, that there were a few in there similar to this.

gfsnh-0-384_qxq6.png

Lol.again with upper shenanigans..

Trop/and range atmosphetics/dynamicals..

The large lobe modeled canadian-fill..is light years away..its a miss modeled synop..

That will be @per close param-..not be there...given outers.!!!

#easterly migrate+ those times/params!

Evaporate of synoptics!!

Edited by tight isobar
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Lol.again with upper shenanigans..

Trop/and range atmosphetics/dynamicals..

The large lobe modeled canadian-fill..is light years away..its a miss modeled synop..

That will be @per close param-..not be there...given outers.!!!

#eastwrly migrate+ those times/params!

Not sure what to make of these for the same timescale (roughly)

Spákort gert á VÃ

 

Probably as you would put it - no decipher!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure what to make of these for the same timescale (roughly)

Spákort gert á VÃ

 

Probably as you would put it - no decipher!

Anomalies are small - I'm not reading too much into them yet. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Man With Beard said:

Anomalies are small - I'm not reading too much into them yet. 

Yes, remember though what happens as you go into a new month on the ECM height anomalies - watch the evolution - they are then based on deviation from the December norm rather than the November norm.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Incredible consistency between the gfs 12z and 18z. Hardly any difference at all by day 8.

And good consistency between 12z GEFS and 18z GEFS, that aforementioned ridge is still there on the 18z mean and slightly more defined.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And good consistency between 12z GEFS and 18z GEFS, that aforementioned ridge is still there on the 18z mean and slightly more defined.

Not a bad pressure anomaly mean at the end of FI

gensnh-21-5-384.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not a bad pressure anomaly mean at the end of FI

gensnh-21-5-384.png

No - very good, although i tend to look at the actual ensemble mean as to ascertain the actual shape of any potential ridge and from what ive seen the last 2 runs, its building so hopefully......

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - very good, although i tend to look at the actual ensemble mean as to ascertain the actual shape of any potential ridge and from what ive seen the last 2 runs, its building so hopefully......

Yes, i think we have pretty solid agreement now of an unsettled phase, interest now turns to what happens thereafter..

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes, i think we have pretty solid agreement now of an unsettled phase, interest now turns to what happens thereafter..

Yes, i can handle a long drawn out unsettled spell - provided the trough is anchored to our West and its repeatedly driving waves into the heart of the pole preferably backed up from the pacifica sector as well, with a big cold pool likely to build up on the continent as a result of the pattern advertised on the GFS and slight warming going to affect top of strat as well, a confidence build up for January..............................................................................................

 

.........87

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not a bad pressure anomaly mean at the end of FI

gensnh-21-5-384.png

Personally not a fan of these anomaly means in isolation, particularly in FI where the anomalies are watered down by law of averages.  Were this to verify exactly as is, there would still be LP over greenland as the "average" is very low pressure, just minutely less.  As such I only become interested in these where the anomaly is particularly great, which is very rare at this range.  

Edited by weatherguy
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Cat-amongst pigieon's or-otherwise .

The short midds...you can note the hunchback slant..in the ens..

Latter on.

With jumping above there mean ..b4 looking 2 slide!!..

 

Early dec-looking STILL PRIMMED!! A+

....'given other synoptics'...

 

MT8_London_ens (7).png

Edited by tight isobar
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Cat-amongst pigieon's or-otherwise .

The short midds...you can note the hunchback slant..in the ens..

Latter on.

With jumping above there mean ..b4 looking 2 slide!!..

 

Early dec-looking STILL PRIMMED!! A+

....'given other synoptics'...

 

MT8_London_ens (7).png

TBH i think early December is too early, if these NH patterns keep up though, cant see anything other than at least some memorable events happening deeper into winter.

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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, The Eagle said:

EDM1-240.GIF?22-0

 

giphy.gif

I nearly spat my strong Dutch lager out when I saw that.

No current models not looking good.

But again in a weeks time there maybe a glimmer of hope. 

Edited by sorepaw1
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