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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Am I right in saying the warmer air was suppose to reaching us by the weekend, where as now it's been pushed back until the middle of next week? 

Always the same in a blocked pattern the models always want to blow the block away, but the warmer air gets delayed further each run as the models realise the blocks going nowhere fast.

 

Edited by DanBaynes
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Has anyone seen a Low sit off Newfoundland for what seems like 7-8 days just biding it’s time waiting to move in?

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7 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Has anyone seen a Low sit off Newfoundland for what seems like 7-8 days just biding it’s time waiting to move in?

I was thinking the very same thing, NNI: this is from the FV3 (T+177)...I'm so glad we never had to worry about such potential nuisances - when 'are were a lud'!

Netweather GFS Image

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GFS para looks more interesting into FI with a UK high building and cold dry weather returning ala Meto update..

gfs-0-300.png?12

edit although it does sink.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Good evening fellow netweather users

Just an update of the swingometers from me and it looks as though mild weather may not be particularly persistent. Still some uncertainties next week to resolve as wellimage.thumb.png.766ba53014ec445fc71bdd0519bda212.png

Some rather cold members still in there but most on the back of a passing low so alternating between mild and rather average / cold. This looks as though it'll extend for a few more days as the swingometers for December 6th appear quite similar. Still 1 or 2 very cold runs in there to cling onto.

image.thumb.png.2edf22651844e2baa55c3843cedc7181.png

Cold air stocking up to our east next week, if only we got a chance to tap into it...

ANOM2m_f168_equir.png 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS para looks more interesting into FI with a UK high building and cold dry weather returning ala Meto update..

gfs-0-300.png?12

edit although it does sink.

Control is better.👌

gens-0-1-360.png

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Just now, booferking said:

Control is better.👌

gens-0-1-360.png

Nice spot ... Yes control is much better 🙂

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A decent back end GEFS with a mean ridge being thrown up towards Greenland and Iceland.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

All things considered I believe the evolution will be close to this

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=4&mode=0&carte=1

I’m thinking p20 is an optional on the table

So temps were well over done by the BBC for this week ....reducing to 8 c by yesterday was the forecast....even for SE....well well out, by 4-6 c.  Now it’s 10c for the weekend....it’ll be a bit below that imo...easterly, front over us, quite wet....it’ll be be pretty cold

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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ECM an upgrade! Low is much flatter. 

Yesterdays 12z

ECM1-120.GIFECM0-120.GIF

Todays

ECM1-96.GIF?22-0ECM0-96.GIF?22-0

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Wasn't expecting the ECM the turn around like it's unbelievable that 4 days out it's like they don't have a clue 

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2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Wasn't expecting the ECM the turn around like it's unbelievable that 4 days out it's like they don't have a clue 

Who does?

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The ECM is closer to the UKMO but with one interesting difference .

Note some trough disruption at day 5 with some cold air still in place and a se flow ahead of fronts .

The low unfortunately still looks like getting east but even at day 6 it’s struggling . It’s a shame the UKMO is more progressive.

Still just about time for some changes but it’s hard to see a big change more perhaps scraping a bit of interest before the low finally wins out.

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Very progessive EC tonight..not sure but looks like its building a strong PV at day 9..

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very progessive EC tonight..not sure but looks like its building a strong PV at day 9..

Getting ready for a very blocky Xmas period one hopes

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Hmm, regarding the EC, it`s as if it`s thought, I could make things easy but has decided to give itself a Rubiks cube for the Atlantic LP.

It isn`t much fussed for cold uppers either.

I am only going as far ahead as next Tuesday.

ECH0-120.GIFECH1-120.GIF

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