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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe a very slight recovery in temps for some over the weekend but it looks like we'll see another burst of chiller air early next week before winds eventually swing around to a milder direction

output_bUjtqP.thumb.gif.ba074e212301624a1cbf46b78326c582.gif

I do like these charts, only a slight moderation of the colder than average conditions at best for my location then straight back into a chilly regime.

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iconeu-0-162.png?22-12

To(o) much energy from the ICON

It is a stronger high on the other hand

Edited by frosty ground

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I think now the best thing I can hope for is temps just to be average. If I don't see temperatures reach double digits then I'll be rather pleased. Would prefer something much colder put GFS ensembles nor the ECMWF show that. 

gefsens850Birmingham0.png

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What a massive difference at t96 on the GFS no more bowling ball low but more like a stretched banana...  This is far from resolved when we cant get an agreement at 4 days.

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10 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I think now the best thing I can hope for is temps just to be average. If I don't see temperatures reach double digits then I'll be rather pleased. Would prefer something much colder put GFS ensembles nor the ECMWF show that. 

gefsens850Birmingham0.png

Best we can hope for?

Just as well the ensembles show that

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1 hour ago, John Badrick said:

it's still November next Tuesday. we are very much still autumn watch!!

Technically December is starting Saturday 😄

Maybe i'm just too impatient.

 

 

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After the GEFS ensembles yesterday suggested low confidence of outcomes for next week on the 06z run, today's 06z run shows much better confidence for pressure to fall and temperatures to rise through next week, as the comparisons between yesterday's 06z and today's 06z for pressure and T850s show below:

GEFS06z_comparison_MSLP.thumb.jpg.49af815f7dd728df76ca0483ee87d4f3.jpg

T850_comparison.thumb.jpg.bc2d1ef94ef3fb2c22a7fbfb4da62601.jpg

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So much change at 96 - pointless worrying about anything past day 5-

ICON not so good, where as GFS pretty much flattens the low into nothing - snow for areas of scotland in that ever cooling SE flow

532C9ACA-5901-4E3E-8F56-08D2BA7FC81B.thumb.png.e8b0d2f15c3e29a3a45f1b7a9ed06418.png

 

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Best we can hope for?

Just as well the ensembles show that

Indeed so Frosty. Doubt this west based -NAO will give us any favours.

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2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

What a massive difference at t96 on the GFS no more bowling ball low but more like a stretched banana...  This is far from resolved when we cant get an agreement at 4 days.

Quite a change.

gfsnh-0-108.thumb.png.2e3f1decb98cb77a94761699f21ad06e.pnggfsnh-0-102.thumb.png.4993e5dae8867fc63f4ead4f9c3a058f.png

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So far it’s GEM/GFS flattening the low on the 12z keeping cold hopes alive, while UKMO and Icon not so good.

All eyes on ECM later...

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Well well well!!what a turnaround at just 96 hours!!lows sliding again

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Just now, Johnp said:

So far it’s GEM/GFS flattening the low on the 12z keeping cold hopes alive, while UKMO and Icon not so good.

All eyes on ECM later...

Personally I think we are clutching at straws, as Nick commented earlier the agreement for a pressure fall and temperature rise is now much better supported and unfortunate outcome but is the reality.

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Just now, Johnp said:

GFS

6z

gfseu-0-120_zhu4.png

12z

gfseu-0-126_qjj1.png

A quite ridiculous change at that range!

Bit people still worrying about day 10...

Edited by Steve Murr

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Engagement!!!.

AT-lp..steps southwards...and azhp buckles and starts-stall...

So much uncertainty-day 5 onwards..

Also as we run..some decent tweaks on pacific side!!!

 

gfs-0-126.png

Edited by tight isobar

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Amazing what a little more forcing and less energy in the jet can do, the differences at day 4 /5 are so stark we can’t draw any conclusions at the moment, aside from it’s a very messy situation! 

AF9E68F7-C37A-4863-B321-3B9402A13FF8.png

8130C979-2745-410F-9888-980252FF1D4A.png

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Can see why the METO were talking about huge uncertainty for next week yesterday now,nothing is given when models struggle so much in these situations.

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Bit people still worrying about day 10...

Model Bias in all its glory. They don't deal well with wedges of high pressure near Iceland. There's a lack of observation data in this region. We can't right this slider off yet 

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Well that's cleared things up nicely! 🙄

A South Easterly

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.056bd7e6a3557de1e3964e1518be0512.png

A South Westerly

UN120-21.thumb.GIF.c5c57296fa59037c942c06387a039bbb.GIF

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1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Well that's cleared things up nicely! 🙄

A South Easterly

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.056bd7e6a3557de1e3964e1518be0512.png

A South Westerly

UN120-21.thumb.GIF.c5c57296fa59037c942c06387a039bbb.GIF

The GFS is just a little slower

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6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed its why I buy Aunt Bessies! 😜.

Correct its clear that the path forward is unclear.  The Atlantic is going to interact....but how and how long for is the point going forward.

I still feel if that LP does get through I believe we could see it get stuck near Dennark and a NNW/N  flow digging in and a return to nicely below average =cold will follow.

BFTP

Hahaha! 

I feel we may see more and more low pressure disrupt as we hit +96 hours as the models upgrade the high pressure nearer time until we see one of these dive South East and the Scandinavian high pressure build over the top giving North Easterlies 

Edited by inghams85

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4 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Hahaha! 

I feel we may see more and more low pressure disrupt as we hit +96 hours as the models upgrade the high pressure nearer time until we see one of these dive South East and the Scandinavian high pressure build over the top giving North Easterlies 

This is certainly what GFS is suggesting. The high to the east builds as very cold air is brought ever further west into Europe while at the same time the low struggles to make progress against the developing block.

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I think a lot of this low will still undercut into the Southern arm of the jet.

It's so finely poised. A forecasters nightmare but if ever models get things wrong at short notice it's with this set up.

ECM around +96 will be interesting

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