The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The latter part of the gfs(high res 192)has a ridge forming in the atlantic,can we gain enough amplitude to the rigde,that Newfoundland low would be sufficiant enough west of the uk to pump WAA into the NH at that stage,it would be interesting to see if this follows suit tomorrow.

Do not go beyond that, indeed that is FI model wise.

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

The noon eps have failed to clear any of the mist from the midnight run. Still no strong guidance on offer ......... the control cluster as likely as any other and it’s not the only coldish option in there ........ donkey ....tail......Shannon ..........

[Methuselah]

This isn't exactly 'fantastic' either:

But this is better:

Edited November 21, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Do not go beyond that, indeed that is FI model wise.

 

BFTP

Yes i know

just looking for trends and there isn't any at that range,i kick myself for that.

[feb1991blizzard]

Whitney we have lift off!

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018112118&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

[markw2680]

There is no way on this planet those fi charts will actually happen! Unless of course it’s complete fluke. No model has a clue atm

[Bruegelian]

Yes the CFS zonal wind forecasts have very adamant about what looks like a strat warming in Dec.

edit: oops just checked latest zonal wind forecasts and not so adamant this time. but looks alright.

Edited November 21, 2018 by Bruegelian

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whitney we have lift off!

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018112118&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

Only 384 hrs to lift off

i am counting...384,383,382....

looks good though Feb

right,i am going to count some sheep

night all

[Cheshire Freeze]

13 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Yes the CFS zonal wind forecasts have very adamant about what looks like a strat warming in Dec.

The more I look at things, the more I believe that the seasonal models showing that blocking signature to our N have programmed a SSW to occur mid-late December. As I'm hearing the strongest anomaly (amongst the seasonals) for a period of below average temperatures is late December- January.

EC is the less bullish of the modelling to promote a SSW (possibly why it has backed off from its earlier crazy blocking signal somewhat). The UKMO seasonal looks ripe for it and the CFS has a pretty consistent signal.

If we're to extrapolate from what we see with regards to the height anomalies being presented to us and the data RE potential SSW, I think it would be fair to assume that if the SSW does not materialise we could be staring at a winter where we find HLB hard to come by for any significant length of time. We can't rely on a disconnected trop-strat relationship further into winter (and this may be no bad thing if we do indeed get the SSW or a decent displacement event). However, it would make things difficult should we not...

I'm still confident however that we'll see enough disturbances of the strat to allow us to get some decent winter weather as we progress into latter December and beyond

Edited November 21, 2018 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

To be honest i think its still a tad early for any full on SSW but its not exactly a robust vortex right the way down the atmosphere so i wouldn't rule out an SSW further into December.

[booferking]

A bit early but it has been talked about around the middle Dec.

Quite a few blocked runs appearing at the end of 18z hopefully we see a white Xmas this year it's been a while.

Edited November 21, 2018 by booferking

[sorepaw1]

Interesting model watching coming up in the next few days let's see where this low goes.

Great posts as always by everyone I clarify on something new everyday.

Word of warning though there is patchy black ice around in North Yorkshire 

Not sure about everyone else's neck of the woods. 

Take care driving tonight or tomorrow morning. 

[Derecho]

The rest of the month beginning to firm up, turning milder in the middle of next week but it looks as though there may be mild interludes separated by cooler days. The swingometer for December 1st therefore shows more in the way of average temperatures.

Will the Atlantic take charge? Swingometer for the 18z looks inconclusive so I'm sitting on the fence yet again.

Coldies should check out P20 in its later stages...

[DanBaynes]

Icon 0z at +150

Scandy high looking more organised but is the low trying to go over the top?

[Sky Full]

I'm no expert but these charts at +192h next week don't look good for cold, sadly:

                                          500s                                                       850s

ECM      

GFS       

GEM      

Changeable and mild at best, unsettled and even stormy at worst, and these conditions look likely to continue into early December.  This is not what was previously on offer and it's disappointing to see the models reverting to type: promising something exciting then changing their minds.  The hope is that they have over-reacted and the weather will find a way back to cold again soon.  No need to panic - winter has a long way to go yet.   It only takes a week to get dramatic weather swings in our part of the world.....

 

 

Edited November 22, 2018 by Sky Full
.

[Rocheydub]

Well, the GFS 00z won’t improve the mood here this morning. That low just very slowly moves eastwards, bringing up mild SW’lys, lots of rain and drab for a couple of days on the trot. Rapidly deepening low too with a predicted cente of 960 at 174hrs and some tightly packed isobars. Yuck.

 

Some promise that eventually after it passes through that heights may rise in mid Atlantic up to Greenland in its wake, but that’s in the realms of FI. 

Ukmo, doesnt look so bad and offers better heights in the North Atlantic too

Edited November 22, 2018 by Rocheydub
Typo

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Well, the GFS 00z won’t improve the mood here this morning. That low just very slowly moves eastwards, bringing up mild SW’lys, lots of rain and drab for a couple of days on the trot. Some promise that eventually after it passes through that heights may rise in mid Atlantic up to Greenland in its wake, but that’s on the borders of FI. 

Yh now we are having American football in the uk. I am hiring one of them to kick that low into touch. Then a field goal right over that scandi high. Then hopefully we can try to get some hieghts building towards Scandi. Damm Americans with there bowling ball low lol.

[northwestsnow]

I think we can safely say the Atlantic is coming looking at GFS/UKMO 00z runs...

For those like myself wanting seasonal weather dont look at the updated BBC monthly outlook..generally mild and wet and by mid Dec they have , and i quote them directly, 'unusually high confidence of mild south westerlies from the sub tropics' !!!

I cant think of anything worse in the run up to christmas so im hoping thats very wrong..

[Chesil View]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think we can safely say the Atlantic is coming looking at GFS/UKMO 00z runs...

For those like myself wanting seasonal weather dont look at the updated BBC monthly outlook..generally mild and wet and by mid Dec they have , and i quote them directly, 'unusually high confidence of mild south westerlies from the sub tropics' !!!

I cant think of anything worse in the run up to christmas so im hoping thats very wrong..

Since the BBC stopped using the Met office as their weather forecaster I pay even less attention to the BBC monthly outlook especially when it is directly opposite to what the meto area suggesting in their extended range outlook. 

[Ali1977]

I think everyone knew the Atlantic would win this one, when no real support by the METO we should definitely not get any hopes up. Onto the next opportunity which with the time of year will be more potent should we get one. 

My hopes are all set of the perfect set up in Jan, it seems a while since we had a long severe cold spell in that month.

Edited November 22, 2018 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Since the BBC stopped using the Met office as their weather forecaster I pay even less attention to the BBC monthly outlook especially when it is directly opposite to what the meto area suggesting in their extended range outlook. 

Yes .. TBH i was going to ask which model the bbc use for their guidance.

All that said they were very bullish about the Atlantic coming in late Nov and thats exactly what is going to happen, even when Exeter were saying small chance.

[SteveB]

Time is ticking though, once the Atlantic systems sets in, it can take weeks to shift the pattern.

Hopefully not this time, the background signals look different this year.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Time is ticking though, once the Atlantic systems sets in, it can take weeks to shift the pattern.

Hopefully not this time, the background signals look different this year.

Yes im with you steve.. the background signals look reasonable to me too...

Lets hope any unsettled phase is short lived..

[Chesil View]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes .. TBH i was going to ask which model the bbc use for their guidance.

All that said they were very bullish about the Atlantic coming in late Nov and thats exactly what is going to happen, even when Exeter were saying small chance.

To be honest it was always more likely the Atlantic would creep back in despite the epic GFS charts of last week. There will be plenty more chances for cold this winter. For me I don't really follow the ops to closely. I look at the ens and listen to the likes of GP., Catocol and Blue army. Nick sussex I find that keeps me grounded while the model rollercoaster goes bananas.

[JeffC]

OK it looks inevitable that we'll drop into a bit of zonal naff for a wee while. I am not despondent at all though as the patterns are generally far from the normal Atlantic road train overall. 

I'm reminded of November 2009 when Cumbria experienced record rainfall events and generally very wet conditions, then within a couple of weeks we were into very cold conditions... There's lots to watch and learn from.