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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well GFS goes Atlantic crazy in FI..

 

Yes horrible end to the GFS nws, just as well that it's way out in la la land. In fact I'm more interested in next week now, it just seems to me that there could be some early snowfall around after all as a late November bonus. 

I prefer watching the GFS (p), seems to have been way more consistent.

 

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The trouble with those precipitation charts is that they are low resolution, so they make an isolated sleet shower look like a nationwide blizzard*

*I may be a exaggerating a touch.

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2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

GFS straight in the bin.

At least the FV3 has been mostly consistent with its output.

I was just about say that...Netweather GFS Image🗑️

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A good time to bring the ARPEGE into it for Tuesday night / Wednesday ... possibilities that some (not all) central areas will wake up white:

arpegeuk-42-58-0.png?18-17   arpegeuk-42-62-0.png?18-17

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3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think your reading too much into those PPN charts in all honesty, the continent at ground level is not all that cold and whilst there might be some evap cooling to allow something for higher elevations, i think for the vast majority, anything that falls out of the skies will be of cold rain. 

I agree with you for the east of the country, but further west, NW, Wales, and some higher areas in central England, well there's a fair chance of something white, almost certainly of the wet variety but hey ho, better than nothing.:oldrolleyes:

54-7PUK.gif

66-7PUK.gif

72-7PUK.gif

72-101PUK.gif

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Big upgrade coming on the GEFS - you can see some changes as early as 138, better undercutting likely to go on.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big upgrade coming on the GEFS - you can see some changes as early as 138, better undercutting likely to go on.

Excellent news Feb-

We are still in the game imho..

TBH anything post 144 is FI..

Edited by northwestsnow
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2 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

 

B27po24ym9irMoGjERvVjA_r.jpg

Why's the GFS Binned. 

Just wondering I've found it quite reliable .

 

 

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Looking for snow this week shows how far the mo has collapsed in the search for a cold outlook.i can't see any real interest this week regarding precipitation tbh but I do think this next weeks outputs are not a done deal either way imo!!!

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13 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes horrible end to the GFS nws, just as well that it's way out in la la land. In fact I'm more interested in next week now, it just seems to me that there could be some early snowfall around after all as a late November bonus. 

I prefer watching the GFS (p), seems to have been way more consistent.

 

I don't agree that it's a horrible end to the GFS run. In fact it's a very interesting run throughout. If you run the sequence through you can see the trop vortex desperately trying to get its act together and failing EVERY single time. Bodes well for December IMO. The final couple of frames show the trop PV migrating back westwards but breaking up again on its eastern periphery would let Eurasian heights do some damage to the vortex once again...if we saw the run move further on.

Edited by CreweCold
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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

I agree with you for the east of the country, but further west, NW, Wales, and some higher areas in central England, well there's a fair chance of something white, almost certainly of the wet variety but hey ho, better than nothing.:oldrolleyes:

I second this, I think many will be surprised. Along with 850hpa temps you also (from experience) can look at dew point (<0'c), thickness of the air and elevation etc.

The GFS shows fairly borderline 850hpa temps and dewpoints.

99507602_SnowParameters.thumb.jpg.2e651ff20def08d8740be034c5f349df.jpg

The ECMWF on the other hand maybe a degree or so lower than what the GFS is showing for both 850hpa and dew-point.

The higher resolution NetWx NMM model, whilst cannot view dew-points, the 850hpa's are also lower than -5'c and thickness of the air remains lower than 528 dam which is generally what you need for falling snow. Settling snow however is a different matter.

213487231_NetweatherSP.thumb.jpg.940d19fb6a571ced3bc1bab7e7b57602.jpg

We shall see! 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent news Feb-

We are still in the game imho..

The first trough ejects and shifts quickly ESE keeping the cold air near, however, there still remains the trough to our west could still spoil things - *MIGHT* have called it wrong.

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5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Looking for snow this week shows how far the mo has collapsed in the search for a cold outlook.i can't see any real interest this week regarding precipitation tbh but I do think this next weeks outputs are not a done deal either way imo!!!

Next week was never, ever looking interesting for widespread snowfall at any point on any model during this entire thing - A few wintry showers over the hills but that’s about it, that was always expected.

It’s beyond next week where the interest has been and still is given todays model upgrades.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Its all to be expected to be honest- The bias for 'toppling' the high varies in each model but consistently they back west & North with time-

The atlantic low around 144 onwards is going to slide east- Not north... 

S

We could do with it diving SE to be honest so that you get the cold air as far south as possible.

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Next week was never, ever looking interesting for widespread snowfall at any point on any model during this entire thing - A few wintry showers over the hills but that’s about it, that was always expected.

It’s beyond next week where the interest has been and still is given todays model upgrades.

Yes I realized that tbh.my point was the interest being shown via precipitation charts ete.the real story ie blocking  has in some folks eyes gone off the boil.imo options a plenty on the table going forward given the nhp still doesn't look PV dominated .

Edited by swfc
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Maybe a dusting for the far S/E tomorrow evening/ Tuesday.

viewimage.thumb.png.f1cfcf00082796a18a268a34053c79a1.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its all to be expected to be honest- The bias for 'toppling' the high varies in each model but consistently they back west & North with time-

The atlantic low around 144 onwards is going to slide east- Not north... 

S

Slide or track ,,.,. There is a big difference !  Certainly an interesting ecm coming up as we have seen two consecutive runs which have been on the slider side as the ridge holds strong .....

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Well its that time of year when iactually don't mind the 12 hour night shift- gulp!

I get to sneek out and watch the 00z runs before everyone else 😄

Big EC coming up!!

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Think it is time to call the FV3 as in the slider category, here T162:

image.thumb.jpg.6732043ba098fa02253aaa7b71c115bd.jpg

And it turns out I have made a complete Horlivka of a prediction. .

What on earth is a Horlivka?  I typed Horlicks! 

FV3 didn't slide, here T204:

image.thumb.jpg.4e3767dacc99e21a534ae7b86d571640.jpg

We await the ECM...

Edited by Mike Poole
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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Slide or track ,,.,. There is a big difference !  Certainly an interesting ecm coming up as we have seen two consecutive runs which have been on the slider side as the ridge holds strong .....

Slide & split - some up to North then Northwest ( west of iceland ) then the rest ( whatever that looks like ) somewhere close on southern UK-watch for additional heights wedged in the middle 

Thats FV3 perfect timing ---

Edited by Steve Murr
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GFSp 12z is a downgrade on the 06z, much lower heights over Greenland unfortunately 

332E9D76-042E-4CDE-BBDF-81B26CE2D074.png

CFBFF1D2-8B00-4B54-8139-31D483DE9DFF.png

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