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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted

all i say  looking  at the models they are great watching  at the  moment with the cold block to the  east of  us they are not boring  at  the  moment!

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

Remarkable differences this morning at just 120 hrs.

 

12E2A80F-0FA5-4AAA-AD9E-F65244C471B1.thumb.png.47e36e01bc1da4182e93ba5b119cd351.png012DA327-BDCA-4AC7-AD3D-6565A4FD2F49.thumb.gif.da753f74c447ddb62aa94fdd10b485a2.gifFD2BD6E7-53AD-48B9-9594-610C746BA28B.thumb.png.7d89ad1b659633decda6fb1c92ca2b32.png

The models are really struggling with how the handle to low out West. 

GFS seems to be too progressive. 

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted (edited)

The atlantic is boss this morning with both gfs and ecm.

A period of zonal it looks odds on at the moment and if it's going to happen it might aswell do it quickly rather than burning up time.

The meto have called this very well I must say both the blocking we now have and the likely return to zonal

What happens after is anyone's guess

Edited by January Snowstorm
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The atlantic is boss this morning with both gfs and ecm.

A period of zonal it looks odds on at the moment and if it's going to happen it might aswell do it quickly rather than burning up time.

The meto have called this very well I must say both the blocking we now have and the likely return to zonal

What happens after is anyone's guess

"odds on at the moment" meaning until the output changes yet again with the next set of runs

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

"odds on at the moment" meaning until the output changes yet again with the next set of runs

There's been a trend now for several days for something more zonal to take hold next week and imo it's gathering pace.

Of course it's likely to be short lived with a resumption of blocking mid December the form horse

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
25 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The atlantic is boss this morning with both gfs and ecm.

A period of zonal it looks odds on at the moment and if it's going to happen it might aswell do it quickly rather than burning up time.

The meto have called this very well I must say both the blocking we now have and the likely return to zonal

What happens after is anyone's guess

Well they don’t expect any zonality for two weeks yet ...... and even then they caveat it ....... mind you, I’m expecting that wording to change today more than yesterday .....

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Well they don’t expect any zonality for two weeks yet ...... and even then they caveat it ....... mind you, I’m expecting that wording to change today more than yesterday .....

They mention any westerly based weather will be short lived and that blocked weather should re-establish itself. I'm a tad dubious myself. AO is now forecast to rebound sharply into december, so it could be the door closes for a while. More runs needed, and the waiting game ensues.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

gfs the best of the lot now on the semi reliable,ukmo poor performance it it has the pattern correct,after before looking like a northerly was coming.

Who actually knows,more runs needed!

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The atlantic is boss this morning with both gfs and ecm.

A period of zonal it looks odds on at the moment and if it's going to happen it might aswell do it quickly rather than burning up time.

The meto have called this very well I must say both the blocking we now have and the likely return to zonal

What happens after is anyone's guess

What are you talking about!? Just skimming through as off to work, but things like the Atlantic is boss this morning and a period of zonal is utter crap. 

The charts Spah has posted showing 120hrs do not show the Atlantic is boss and a period of zonal. If you are talking about after this then I haven't seen charts yet but if 120 isn't sorted then false sweeping statements like that do not help anyone. 

Edited by Day 10
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

/Well they don’t expect any zonality for two weeks yet ...... and even then they caveat it ....... mind you, I’m expecting that wording to change today more than yesterday .....

Yes, i'm afraid momentum is gathering now for a switch next week, TBF Exter have said early Dec so looking at EC its not until day 7 the Atlantic comes in - iv'e read the update again and it references a short lived Atlantic phase and then go onto mention a return to settled weather mid December.That said, thats a couple of weeks and i'm not sure i'd class that as brief!!

So, yes, i think i agree they will now put a little more confidence in the likelihood of an unsettled phase, attention can then be turned  perhaps to Strat/MJO etc to see if we can decipher if the telecommunications are going to be 'on side' ..

So, i'm now 70/30 with the Atlantic coming in,but i'm going to enjoy the next 7 days or so of cold dry November weather and dig out my hiking boots..

 

 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted (edited)

Such big differences past day 5 between GFS/EC/UKMO with regards to the strength of the blocking high close to northern UK and where the Atlantic troughing energy goes around this block. EC wants energy to go over the block and thus sinking it SE into Europe, whilst GFS and UKMO, as far it goes, has more energy going under.

So, don't take the 00z EC's less palatable scenario past day 6 too literally for now, lot to be resolved in the medium range, don't think this is resolved yet.

Edited by Nick F
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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted (edited)

UKMO model again the best position at 144t for a cold scenario. ECM/GFS runs again look to progressive in the longer term. The UKMO continues with a strong ridge from Greenland to Southern Scandinavia which will help to keep the flow into the British Isles with a Easterly component. Glad the high cell is not migrating too far west towards NE Canada as that would open up energy of the Northern arm . Two other observations to note is the expansion and deepening of the colder 850mb temps to the NE of the British Isles and low formation in Southern Europe at 144t. That's my thoughts anyway, will get back later with an update from the team over here.

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

The latest eps seem to be heading to a direction where the Atlantic could feasibly stall and build a scandi ridge by day 10 .... the high anomalys to our north have gone allowing a cleaner northerly path for the flow rather than ne ....... deep cold trapped below the developing  upper ridge ......

 one run though ...... wonder if there will still be six clusters .........

 

Edited by bluearmy
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

Well, longer term aside, i'm wondering if we might see some frosty nights as we head through the weekend- the output suggests winds will be quite slack - so that would support sub zero temps at night , depending on cloud amounts - BBC raw doesn't have temps below freezing here right through until next week, well actually none at all,can anyone shed any light or thoughts ?

Edited by northwestsnow
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well they don’t expect any zonality for two weeks yet ...... and even then they caveat it ....... mind you, I’m expecting that wording to change today more than yesterday .....

My point exactly.

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Popular Post
Posted
17 minutes ago, carinthian said:

UKMO model again the best position at 144t for a cold scenario. ECM/GFS runs again look to progressive in the longer term. The UKMO continues with a strong ridge from Greenland to Southern Scandinavia which will help to keep the flow into the British Isles with a Easterly component. Glad the high cell is not migrating too far west towards NE Canada as that would open up energy of the Northern arm . Two other observations to note is the expansion and deepening of the colder 850mb temps to the NE of the British Isles and low formation in Southern Europe at 144t. That's my thoughts anyway, will get back later with an update from the team over here.

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Just for you snow lovers, thought you might like this picture taken earlier this morning. 25cm cover and temp --2c.

C

46524062_10156980631453628_2626010062098792448_o.jpg

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Hoping Steve is still keeping the faith -Looking at the EC mean you get the feeling 168 is the tipping point so its probably still not at a range for the ens to handle the critical energy distribution wholly accurately ..

 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Case in point re: not taking the operationals too literally past day 5/6 - even the EPS and GEFS ensemble means show fairly notable 500mb differences between them by day 7/8

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.04fdc6973e3f059b23221e628f7d1e33.pngecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.45372cc48e44cf13299936930ecf7a05.png

Edited by Nick F
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Case in point re: not taking the operationals too literally past day 5/6 - even the EPS and GEFS ensemble means show fairly notable 500mb differences between them by day 7/8

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.thumb.png.625c56a8f90443daa69bb7faaf6c21dd.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.04fdc6973e3f059b23221e628f7d1e33.png

EPs suggestive of a strong jet coming out of North America Nick?

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EPs suggestive of a strong jet coming out of North America Nick?

Yes, strong southern jet across N America, indicative of a wave of energy caused by El Nino. Could bring some east coast winter storms.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yes, strong southern jet across N America, indicative of a wave of energy caused by El Nino. Could bring some east coast winter storms.

Yes , thanks for that..

GEFS also cranking up the jet,although seemingly with more energy going south, looks to me like any block is going to have its hand full moving forward!!

Shame that really as most of the NH looks in good shape for a coldie!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Mizzle Community Regular

Mizzle

Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
Posted

Not sure if I am allowed/supposed to post this MetOffice link in here, but I found it really helpful (as a newbie) as in introduction to ensembles and also as a useful explainer for the current model watching issues. Hope it might help others

https://bit.ly/2TsrbVj

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