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Paul

The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pressure is lowering over Iberia and Europe??

 

BFTP

I think we're just seeing a change in the orientation of the high.

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The potential for a very cold Arctic blast is still there, on Day 16...In the absence of any deep cold to our east (none that looks like coming this way just yet, anyway?) a wee bit of extrapolation might just keep our moods up...?:yahoo:

Netweather GFS Image

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6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I think we're just seeing a change in the orientation of the high.

Indeed, enough currently to still keep watching with interest.   If come Friday and we see yesterday’s runs....just eat and be merry

 

BFTP

 

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It’s going to be Christmas until anything colder is going to show in these models.

But I wouldn’t bet against the current trend of the UK being in the middle of cold to the west and cold to the east until the effects of an SSW is felt. Indeed if it happens.

 

C978EA69-7718-4B86-8158-C2AE8EB9F140.png

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Since we've hit a bit of a lull for now, I'm going to lock this one and open a fresh thread:

 

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