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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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FV3 looks a wee bet better, for Xmas Day:

Netweather GFS Image

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Not related to Uk cold.  But on the para in the far reaches  that is one seriously cold Atlantic.   

gfsnh-1-372.png

Edited by weirpig
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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not related to Uk cold.  But on the para in the far reaches  that is one seriously cold Atlantic.   

gfsnh-1-372.png?6

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download.thumb.png.2862d22db7d4905e6f1c8fb469e96359.png

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34 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It can take 1 or 2 weeks following a SSW for it to take effect lower down, so we are talking about 1st or second week of January we should see some impact at our latitude (not necessarily the UK ), so let’s not get too worried about FI charts - they are rubbish at the best of times so trying to forecast the fallout of SSW is impossible at this range. What we can expect to see is a typical borefest of UK winter charts, then Around XMAS a possible flip to something special hopefully. As long as this SSW happens, the UK has a good chance of “big freeze”, the METO are forecasting and monitoring it so let’s stay with that. 

 

Also, I think GLOSEA was seeing a big warming (SSW) in Jan a few weeks back, is this still the case I wonder - and is this warming next week just a precursor- if so 2 back to back SSWs could have some serious potential.

The effects in the UK might be around the 10th January according to some respected members on here. 

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Just now, steveinsussex said:

It is for me

It is now. It was fixed after I made him aware of it

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And the FV3 follows its older brother by hinting a change, in early January...Hope it's on the money and smelling some premium coffee!

Netweather GFS Image

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter trying to calm the excitement a tad ......

 

Yep . Loving the easterly bit Nick 👍

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Wouldn't that northerly be a potential stonker - were it to become real:😁

Netweather GFS Image

 

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at then😱That looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south🏂

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter trying to calm the excitement a tad ......

 

Yep so could that mean sww under risk maybe no split just displacement the likely outcome..

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at then😱That looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south🏂

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

There update is going for Easterly rather than a Northerly..

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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter trying to calm the excitement a tad ......

 

But still broadly 'on song'. 😎

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10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at then😱That looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south🏂

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

It would? Just looks like cool zonality to me ..... be excellent on the Scottish hills but that’s what happens a lot in a normal winter .....

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It seems that things are taking a turn for the worst at the moment with the Metoffice less bullish about the cold spell in January, too.  However, still a long way to go.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It would? Just looks like cool zonality to me ..... be excellent on the Scottish hills but that’s what happens a lot in a normal winter .....

It certainly would, were it to come down straight from the Arctic...

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22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ahh that’s what the meto are hinting at then😱That looks like the day after tomorrow scenario,with the Atlantic ocean freezing over as the exceptionally cold arctic air floods south🏂

Would be some interesting polar low developments in that air stream.Nothern Scotland would be cut off from the outside  world ,with that temperature gradient between the warm sea and the upper air temps.

Hope this is the new trend.

I’ve been thinking about it since I read this and I’m going to classify this as a “ramp”

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16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It certainly would, were it to come down straight from the Arctic...

not necessarily,polor lows would form in that bitterly cold air mass,which could give snow to many places,if it verified of course,

if that  384 chart ran a few more days it would end up looking close to feb1969

 

0AD70F16-840F-46B1-AA2E-6BEAA40751DF.png

F88B80BA-46CC-4942-9291-8E8030A35145.png

Edited by SLEETY
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a few more GEFS members showing more charts that are blocked or have ridges of high pressure heading into favourable places for us to get cold down the line, hopefully the start of a trend as we head into the new year.

tempresult_clr8.thumb.gif.095686cb3ab4671a52643b4ffaeb7630.gif

gensnh-1-0-384.thumb.png.4fc46af5f90b96dfbd6e7ba9e147638c.png

tempresult_goa6.thumb.gif.5f13fcf5ba3c546d93484b976e2073c0.gif

gensnh-12-1-324.thumb.png.f81f47eaa238180a088cef2f5c8745a8.png

tempresult_iof7.thumb.gif.32e44b4164bc9a170c5e436e4f1ea452.gif

gensnh-18-5-384.thumb.png.0147027b569e8620aad7bfcc8529f175.png

not sure how good the CMA is at strat forecasts but it has this by the 27th December

1817631985_cmanh-10-240(1).thumb.png.12b44be74a25bcfaeb80895b1c3aaf56.png

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It is not a tempering of the message, in fact it is confirmation of their thinking (easterly), just a simple percentage game. the overwhelming signal is for A but B may still happen.

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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

not necessarily,polor lows would form in that bitterly cold air mass,which could give snow to many places,if it verified of course,

if that  384 chart ran a few more days it would end up looking close to feb1969

 

0AD70F16-840F-46B1-AA2E-6BEAA40751DF.png

F88B80BA-46CC-4942-9291-8E8030A35145.png

February 1969 was the very event I was thinking of, Sleety... I remember it well!:santa-emoji:

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 Concerned that some of you are at the stage where you are extrapolating a day 16 gfs op chart on several more days ........

if you are one of these people then you may need help! 

Edited by bluearmy
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16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

February 1969 was the very event I was thinking of, Sleety... I remember it well!

Long before my time old chap.. please do tell. 👍

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