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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

There's still lots of spread in the ensembles. The mood seems very down in here this morning even though for lots it's snowing! Christmas won't be nailed on until at least Tuesday and remember this cold snap had last minute upgrades so you never know Christmas might look mild but it could all change at the last minute.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Looks like our Christmas miracle has gone. Hard not to feel despondent after the recent charts. Rule of thumb always seems to be wichever model dosent agree thats the right one. ECM never backed gfs so the signal was a false dawn. Lets hope we can get some strat action now as i feel we need it. The pv looks formed again and the Atlantic just wont run out of juice. Well onwards and upwards Coldies things can and will get better. Gd luck in the North today should see some decent snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
4 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Looks like our Christmas miracle has gone. Hard not to feel despondent after the recent charts. Rule of thumb always seems to be wichever model dosent agree thats the right one. ECM never backed gfs so the signal was a false dawn. Lets hope we can get some strat action now as i feel we need it. The pv looks formed again and the Atlantic just wont run out of juice. Well onwards and upwards Coldies things can and will get better. Gd luck in the North today should see some decent snow.

Still ten days till Christmas don’t hang your hat up yet..

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Still ten days till Christmas don’t hang your hat up yet..

Hard to see all the models flipping bk again. They obvioudly underestimated the energy coming out of the eastern Seaboard and also those lows around greenland just stop any ridging. But as you say still 10 days away and i have been very nice this year lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Looks like people are getting too hung up on individual runs from the models.

There is still a small chance of a colder spell around Christmas (It has only ever been a small chance) but that is beyond the ‘reliable’ time frame at the moment.

A lot still points to late December/early January onwards seeing a much greater chance of significant cold. As has been the case for several weeks.

A winter of patience with (hopefully) rich reward.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
27 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

I'm going to post 2 charts from the EC46 for early January.

1.thumb.png.14330325a310c4a04588166a2bd61986.png2.thumb.png.8cc86163d9458e9ba2f8c588c884b9af.png  Control run at day 25?? (Although it’s quite a feasible evolution)

 

 

Upper air charts for days 8-10 show rather large divergence between ECM/GFS

UPPER.thumb.gif.5a1700f4ede65e499d31045e2661300f.gif Operational data  so clearly some uncertainty remains but in the 6/10 day range the ens should be used more anyway

 

It's possible the MJO uncertainty within the models is causing NWP to be a little topsy turvy, GFS probably was a little too fast with the height rises to our North in the last couple of days but background signals (GDSM, AAM, etc) do support height rises, the Strat is currently undergoing a warming and this can throw the models into chaos too as they try to handle the outcome of the warming. 

Good point - but the ecm model is way ahead of the gfs re strat trop interaction with so many more horizontal levels in the euro. Looks like mid lat blocking approaching the new year in a holding type situation might be a safe bet. 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I wouldn't be worrying unduly, peeps; look at the spread, on the GEFS ensembles:

GEFS Ensembles Chart    GEFS Ensembles Chart

I'd be very surprised, if major changes were not going to happen...?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I've had a quick look through the CET history and there isn't many really cold January's that follow mild Decembers.

I have a feeling we will have to endure a mild December and Christmas, and quite possibly a mild start to January. Hopefully the strat ramifications  stuff kicks in mid Jan onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
15 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Hard to see all the models flipping bk again. They obvioudly underestimated the energy coming out of the eastern Seaboard and also those lows around greenland just stop any ridging. But as you say still 10 days away and i have been very nice this year lol.

How is it hard to see them flip back? The models are chopping and changing every run and as there’s still 10 days to go I’d say they will flip loads between now and then. There is no consistency at all.

too much doom in here today tbh

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

The ECM output for my location had been hilariously inconsistent run to run. Really wild swings. As @ArHu3has pointed out, the poor thing is rather confused at the moment. Nothing is decided yet. 

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

If it's a case where we sacrifice a cold Xmas for a hopefully great January then I don't mind. Anything before January will be a bonus imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, sundog said:

If it's a case where we sacrifice a cold Xmas for a hopefully great January then I don't mind. Anything before January will be a bonus imo.

Think im with you SD..

All eyes on late Dec/early Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Hunt for cold......go outside right now.....It is very cold and has been cold for a few days....that’s realism Frosty.

I think folk are hunting prolonged (week+) of sub zero days......?  And why not......75 days of winter to go

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Iberian heights stronger than what was originally modelled. Large chunk of pv settling into it's usual place to the north west of the UK. More energy coming out of Eastern Canada. This is what I am seeing on the models and that trend has been ramped up on this morning's output. The ecm debilt ext ens look drab to say the least. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

I think folk are hunting prolonged (week+) of sub zero days......?  

Probably best not to be looking for that type of cold in the UK, tho? Well, that’s if we are being realistic? 

In late November we were told to expect this forum to be hyper busy into 2nd wk of December (due to possibility of severe cold)... then it was pushed back to Christmas. Now we are talking about early January & beyond .... 

A definite and all too familiar theme. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Iberian heights stronger than what was originally modelled. Large chunk of pv settling into it's usual place to the north west of the UK. More energy coming out of Eastern Canada. This is what I am seeing on the models and that trend has been ramped up on this morning's output. The ecm debilt ext ens look drab to say the least. 

This happened with this cold snap though didn't it and at the last minute it suddenly appeared back on the charts. 

This isn't aimed at you @blizzard81 BTW but everyone on here needs to realise that it's all still to play for. Let's pray for the 6z runs.  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
17 minutes ago, draztik said:

Probably best not to be looking for that type of cold in the UK, tho? Well, that’s if we are being realistic? 

In late November we were told to expect this forum to be hyper busy into 2nd wk of December (due to possibility of severe cold)... then it was pushed back to Christmas. Now we are talking about early January & beyond .... 

A definite and all too familiar theme. 

You must be reading different posts to me. It has always been late December/early January onwards that has looked like seeing the start of the highest risk of significant cold.

There have been a couple of fleeting, brief chillier spells which a few people got excited about but there was never any prospect of them bringing significant cold. They haven’t been backed up by background signals to bring significant cold and the most knowledgeable posters in this area have never touted them to. 

I remember the same when we had the ‘Beast from the East’. A few people were keen to claim that it was continually being put back when it wasn’t, and then it arrived when it was predicted to. That was correctly predicted weeks in advanced based on background signals and strat warming, despite certain individuals being keen to dismiss them as forecasting tools.

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, draztik said:

Probably best not to be looking for that type of cold in the UK, tho? Well, that’s if we are being realistic? 

In late November we were told to expect this forum to be hyper busy into 2nd wk of December (due to possibility of severe cold)... then it was pushed back to Christmas. Now we are talking about early January & beyond .... 

A definite and all too familiar theme. 

Don’t confuse things though ....... people will predict that the models will show stuff to get excited about - hence this place is busy ......... but the reality could just be a couple of frosts and a short sharp snow event like we are currently having ...

Edited by bluearmy
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