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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Mike, if you compare today’s ECM runs looking at southern Greenland, you will see a massive swing towards greater heights in this area. If that’s the trend.........

Well not on this run in the end, although what you say applies to the other models, this  one is being stubborn, ECM T240:

More runs needed. sigh.

image.jpg

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Personally feel the ecm 12z was fairly poor...just one low after the other. No raging jet stream but still development coming off the Eastern Seaboard which I was hoping to see less of or even lows not developing as much towards Greenland.

After an upgrade yesterday on the 12z I was hoping for better...

Edited by Froze were the Days

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Looking through the GEFS 12z postage stamps through late December shows plenty of snow opportunities for the uk, especially further n / e...could be a white festive period for some of us..everything crossed!!:santa-emoji:😉❄️:drunk:

snow_192_ps_slp.png

snow_216_ps_slp.png

snow_240_ps_slp.png

snow_264_ps_slp.png

snow_312_ps_slp.png

snow_336_ps_slp.png

snow_360_ps_slp.png

snow_384_ps_slp.png

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1 hour ago, booferking said:

Yep FV3 yes please don't stop the good times just need Ecm on side now.

gfs-0-204 (1).png

This is exactly the pattern that the EC clusters have been hinting at for a while (with a sprinkling of my own logical interpretation 🙂 ).

We're now into the "will there be a white Christmas or not" territory, and for once, we are in the game (imo). 

My main concern is the EC op persisting with heights to the east. Good heights east + rising heights west = possibility of being stuck on the wrong side of the trough in the middle. 

Or, dare I dream, could the two areas of heights link over the top to the north, sinking our trough into Europe? That would be the jackpot. 

I have this feeling that model watching will be quite exciting in the next 72 hours!

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@Frosty.

Tell you what mate, don`t worry about all those single runs, mash them all together and we just about have a decent snow chart.

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The time is Christmas week......make sure you are where you want to be and get plenty of grub and booze in (get that anyway even if doesn't snow)......you know I've been saying it and saying it .  Very short term swing to mild next week before the main game starts   Trough to move s/SSE into Europe bringing very cold air from our north...to start with.

 

BFTP  

You have been saying this for a while now. We really need the ECM ops to stop their love ins with those spawning, relentless lows spinning off the us eastern seaboard.

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Here's the latest set of GEFS ensembles (the latest I can find, anywho!):

GEFS Ensembles Chart   2m temps, on the op especially, show a clear and sustained drop, post Day 5.

GEFS Ensembles Chart The 850s likewise but the control throws a couple of googlies.

GEFS Ensembles Chart SLP, after the 20th, resembles those paper-chain decorations we used to make at school!

PS: I had to go back and check the spelling of 'googlies'...But, winter, she's a'comin! :cold:

 

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I will be in the land of nod before the JMA 12z finishes, but at T192 this is definitely going in favour of the block and resultant cold towards Christmas:

image.thumb.jpg.5052feb84a8eda25a8725d2512185688.jpg

I think we can say at the end of the12s the situation is  uncertain.  Maybe resolved by the 12 suite tomorrow?

Edited by Mike Poole

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24 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Personally feel the ecm 12z was fairly poor...just one low after the other. No raging jet stream but still development coming off the Eastern Seaboard which I was hoping to see less of or even lows not developing as much towards Greenland.

After an upgrade yesterday on the 12z I was hoping for better...

Yeah, agree with this. It's better than the 0z though, but not much. That said, the op has been all over the place vs its own ENS in recent days. It's perverse that the ECM has been more progressive while the GFS more amplified in the latter stages, as it's often the other way round. 

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Slight heatwave on the OP for Newcastle just before the turn of the year 😂 Outlier perhaps?

snow.png

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope EC is another outlier.

Much better GFS, again.

It’s one of those situations you hope the GFS is right but deep down you know the ECM is a better model and can count on one hand the number of times the ECM has followed the GFS.

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Cant help but feel GFS is leading us up the proverbial garden path again.

I see Matt Hugo is commenting on the 'stand off' and basically suggesting GFS will be wrong.

😞

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2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

It’s one of those situations you hope the GFS is right but deep down you know the ECM is a better model and can count on one hand the number of times the ECM has followed the GFS.

I seem to remember last winter we had a period when the ECM was showing glory charts and GFS wasnt having any of it, everybody in here was saying GFS will come on board and it was wrong etc only for it to be correct and the ECM and UKMO wrong lets just hope this is another case.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cant help but feel GFS is leading us up the proverbial garden path again.

I see Matt Hugo is commenting on the 'stand off' and basically suggesting GFS will be wrong.

😞

Kind of thought the GFS hasn`t actually been a million miles off being right recently.

Edited by Stuie W

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Just now, More Snow said:

I seem to remember last winter we had a period when the ECM was showing glory charts and GFS wasnt having any of it, everybody in here was saying GFS will come on board and it was wrong etc only for it to be correct and the ECM and UKMO wrong lets just hope this is another case.

There have been occasions when GFS has trumped the others , but more often than not its GFS that comes into line..

I'm not overly bothered, Winter has just started and we have plenty of reasons to be optimistic that things will fall into place eventually..

I'm looking forward to Christmas either way, and hopefully a freezing January!!

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cant help but feel GFS is leading us up the proverbial garden path again.

I see Matt Hugo is commenting on the 'stand off' and basically suggesting GFS will be wrong.

😞

He said what we all say usually the Gfs steps away but one thing that gives me hope that gfs is right this time is the Ecm op has been trending towards Gfs run by run plus there's an EC cluster that looks rather like Gfs op..

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7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Kind of thought the GFS hasn`t actually been a million miles off being right recently.

Its interesting viewing, although it would be nice if EC det wasn't so intent on keeping the lows coming..

Day 10 might be just beginning to hint of the lows heading into Europe..

EC mean isn't pretty either, basically west to east right the way through..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its interesting viewing, although it would be nice if EC det wasn't so intent on keeping the lows coming..

Day 10 might be just beginning to hint of the lows heading into Europe..

This week in particular has been tough on them all tbh mate. I think we aren`t really that close to being zonal, Atlantic yes but until you get decent reversal winds that`s the norm? Deflecting, phasing and direction of the lows is deffo up for grabs.

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

He said what we all say usually the Gfs steps away but one thing that gives me hope that gfs is right this time is the Ecm op has been trending towards Gfs run by run plus there's an EC cluster that looks rather like Gfs op..

The key here is GH...GFS handles it way better, always has, look at the fiasco in 2014 I think when GFS saw the shortwave stopping heights into Greenland first....if it's about Greenland back the GFS all day long.

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