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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Does the Second Warming indicate the coming snowpocalypse, The End of (rainy) Days?👼🏾

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FV3 T168, think this should get there by the big day!  The ridge west of Greenland should link the weak heights to the north.

image.thumb.jpg.7e90711d2f35511948f3bd9e0a3e6cb2.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 T168, think this should get there by the big day!  The ridge west of Greenland should link the weak heights to the north.

image.thumb.jpg.7e90711d2f35511948f3bd9e0a3e6cb2.jpg

High SLP over Iberia there.

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Christmas looking lovely and seasonal on the GFS 12z (as was the 6z) fingers crossed we get a growing trend for cold and frosty (with the chance of snow at least) as we head towards the big day. Loving GFS tonight 🙂 

FED914BF-19B8-4573-BDFD-165D12BAF0B8.thumb.png.c92396f8f1f1127692763582945c6250.png

 

 

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Ens have a chunk of vortex travelling from the Asian side to Canada on our side of the pole during week 2 - that increases the Atlantic jet - hence lots of runs which have an active Atlantic at that timescale ... chances of a greeny ridge which copes with that are limited and we’ve already seem scandi ridging struggling thus far to cope and keep us in the cold air  - with the Siberian ridge for support I could see it surviving but we don’t have that as yet 

we may get there via wedges and sliders or runners into the base of a cold trough but yet to see convincing evidence on these scenarios 

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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep FV3 yes please don't stop the good times just need Ecm on side now.

gfs-0-204 (1).png

Is fv3 the GFS parallel....? Please enlighten me to the new name when the chart states GFS-P?I haven’t been up to date with the thread lately:)

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FV3 T240:

image.thumb.jpg.02fb2472498bccbffb1876debb1a3d69.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1b57859ae547f09cb92ec0ec7f888d3d.jpg

Synoptics could't really be better for cold at Christmas, but T850s could be better, but low pressure around.  So to sum up, if this model run transpires, there could well be some snow virtually anywhere on Christmas Day.

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Is fv3 the GFS parallel....? Please enlighten me to the new name when the chart states GFS-P?I haven’t been up to date with the thread lately:)

Yes..👍

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2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Is fv3 the GFS parallel....? Please enlighten me to the new name when the chart states GFS-P?I haven’t been up to date with the thread lately:)

Yea it's parallel FV3-GFS so FV3 for short.👍🙂

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7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’m waiting for the next frame to run for the ECM. Now I know that there is a 12 hr disparity for direct comparison with the previous run, but I see two areas of improvement already by T+72.... 

Chiono you must be in a festive mood, not like you to comment on individual runs 😳👍😀😀

Edited by Spah1

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Think the ECM is pushing a really decent ridge T120

image.thumb.jpg.80265317a1e9ea7f91b9fd4f6827ea9c.jpg

this should go well

Edited by Mike Poole

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Our recent friend (or foe) the Scandi high packing a bit of a punch on this run.

 

ECH1-120.png

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But not to be, on this run anyway, ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.278dd7ccd78bd2b03c8f155c429a5404.jpg

No appetite to build towards Greenland, think this one is off message given the other runs tonight, as ever, we will see!

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